Chances of New Series: April 2014

There are two new series debuting this month, the final two premieres of the 2013-14 television year.  CBS has one new comedy, and ABC has one new drama.

Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are % chance of becoming a success):

Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer, renewal inevitable
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer, renewal likely
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer, but still renewed
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer, cancellation likely

Very Poor (19-0) – A terrible performer, cancellation inevitable


bad teacherTimeslot: Thursdays at 930/830c
Lead in: Two and a Half Men
Competition: Hollywood Game NightGrey’s AnatomyReignSurviving Jack
Analysis: Last May, Bad Teacher wasn’t picked up until a week after upfronts.  With such a late pickup I figured CBS saw something positive in Bad Teacher.  Then it never got a premiere date and when it finally did, it was late April – not good.  If the series was any good, I think CBS would have debuted in much earlier.  However, CBS has given Bad Teacher a pretty solid promotional push and it will air with a still-strong Two and a Half Men lead in.  Competition is also very light when it comes to comedy (Surviving Jack is dying) and overall competition (Grey’s Anatomy’s 2.4-2.8 is it).  Lets face it though, Bad Teacher was a mediocre movie, at best.  Reviews are looking that way thus far too.  Chicago Sun-Times and San Francisco Times both gave it okay reviews, with Sun-Times saying the premise will wear thin, and the Times noting it is better than the movie.  Still, a late debut gives Bad Teacher only so much time to prove itself.  In the end, the CBS audience will likely reject Bad Teacher, and it will be burned-off over the summer.
Chance of Success: Poor

Black_Box_logoTimeslot: Thursdays at 10/9c
Lead in: Grey’s Anatomy
Competition: Elementary, Various NBC Specials
Analysis: If one thing is for sure, the competition in the hour is light!  NBC has a Saturday Night Live special this week, and the debut of the iHeart Radio Music Awards, and Elementary airs on CBS.  Black Box also has the help from its lead in Grey’s Anatomy. Reviews have actually be pretty positive.  People and The Wall Street Journal each say the series strong point is lead Kelly Reilly.  No matter how good Kelly Reilly may be, is she a household name yet?  Will people know she is good?  My guess is no.  As with Bad Teacher, I think the late debut will ultimately hurt Black Box more so than anything else.  In addition, ABC has a string of bad luck with new dramas (excluding Resurrection, maybe?), and I see it continuing with Black Box.
Chance of Success: Very Poor

I just want to say thank you to everyone who read Chances of New Series throughout the 2013-2014 television season.  I have yet to decide if will continue with this for the summer season, or revert back to the How Will It Do? feature from last summer (click here to see).  If you have any opinion on which you like better, please let me know in the comments below.  No matter what my decision for summer ends up being, the Chances of New Series feature will return in the fall for the third year in a row!

Finally, results for how I did this season will be compiled after schedules are announced at the Upfront Presentations.  Also, look for my Upfront predictions early next month!

Stephen Colbert Named New Host of “The Late Show”

stephen colbertThat was quick!  One week after David Letterman announced his retirement from The Late Show, CBS has officially named Stephen Colbert the new host of The Late Show with a five-year contract.

Stephen Colbert, current host of The Colbert Report on Comedy Central, has been with the network since October 2005.  His contract with Comedy Central runs through 2014.

Stephen Colbert was a rumored successor of David Letterman, along with current CBS The Late Late Show host Craig Ferguson, Chelsea Handler, Tina Fey, and Neil Patrick Harris.  Four days ago, The Daily Mail said Colbert was the front-runner for the job.

When Colbert takes over he will be at least 50 years old, the oldest host of any 11:35pm late night show.  Jimmy Fallon is currently 39, and Kimmel 46.  It will be interesting to see if the younger demographic shifts toward Colbert or stick with Fallon.

No official date has been announced for Stephen Colbert to take over, although it is expected to be sometime in 2015.

Now we wait for Comedy Central to announce what will fill the 1130 timeslot as a result of the move.  Will @midnight shift to the earlier timeslot and become @11:30 (eh) or is a new show on the way?  Let the rumors begin!

A&E Renews “Bates Motel”

bates-motelAfter a somewhat slow start to the season, A&E has given a third season order to the Psycho-prequel, Bates Motel.

Through five episodes, Bates Motel is averaging 2.32 million viewers, down about 17% from the same point last season.  The first three episodes of the season aired at 9/8c, before moving back to 10/9c, after the removal of Those Who Kill from the schedule.  The timeslot change has resulted in a bump in ratings.

The third season, consisting of ten episodes, will return next January.

HBO Renews “Game of Thrones” for Two Seasons

GameOfThrones_Teaser02_Screencap10After its record-breaking season debut on Sunday night, HBO has renewed hit drama Game of Thrones for a fifth and sixth season.

No word yet on how many episodes have been ordered, but each of the previous seasons has been given ten episodes.

HBO is lucky to have secured its number one drama for an additional two seasons, as its other hit, True Blood, is heading into its final season later this summer.  On top of that, many of its new offerings, with the exception of True Detective, have struggled to find much of an audience.

FXX Renews “It’s Always Sunny”

sunnyThe sun will continue shining in Philadelphia for at least a few more years.

It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, which moved to FXX in September 2013, and averaged 530,000 viewers in its ninth season, has been given a renewal order for an eleventh and twelfth season.  Sunny, along with The League, is one of the few shows to find any traction on the new network.

FXX previously renewed It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia for a tenth season in March 2013, which has yet to premiere.  The two season extension, for an eleventh and twelfth season, will give Sunny the distinction of being the longest-running cable comedy series in television history.

The three yet-to-be-aired seasons will each contain ten (10) episodes, giving the series a total of 134 episodes since its debut in 2005.