Chances of New Dramas: The CW

Edit: This post was originally typed in August, and never posted.

Here is the NEW scale that will be used this season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series
Keep in mind, The CW scale is in relative terms to other CW series, i.e. “Breakout” would mean higher than most other shows on the network, while “Weak” would simply mean its below average for the network.  Comparisons to the other four broadcast networks are basically meaningless.

flash-logoQuick Premise: Based on The Flash comic book, a man wakes up from a coma with superhuman speed.
Timeslot: Tuesdays at 8/7c
Lead in: Local programming
Competition: Manhattan Love StoryNCIS, SelfieUtopiaThe Voice

Analysis: The CW had big success with Arrow, and two years later they are hoping from more of the same with The Flash.  The Originals successfully launched in the hour last season, so there is every reason to believe The Flash can do the same.  The 8 o’clock hour is typically higher rated on The CW, since local programming gives the network a big push (more so than other networks, it appears).  The competition, while tough with NCIS and The Voice, shouldn’t really put a dent in The Flash.  The CW rarely seems to be effected by other networks programming, other than American Idol and The Voice.  The difference here is The Flash will likely skew more male, taking away the sting from The Voice.  With a built-in name and fan-base, The Flash should have no trouble breaking out for The CW.  It is one of the safest bets of the season.
Prediction: BREAKOUT (5)

jane-the-virgin-key-artQuick Premise: A doctor accidentally artificially inseminates a young virgin.
Timeslot: Mondays at 9/8c
Lead in: The Originals
Competition: Dancing with the StarsScorpionSleepy Hollow, The Voice

Analysis: Once you get past the wacky concept, Jane the Virgin is essentially a family drama.  Set in Miami, and focusing on a Latino family, The CW could tap into an audience that is forgotten on broadcast television.  In fact, I think this show could be a surprise and be the next Ugly Betty, although chances are slim.  Competition for a similar audience in the hour is going to be tough.  The Voice has the young females, and Dancing with the Stars has the older females.  That doesn’t leave much for Jane the Virgin, unless it can tap into the Latino audience.  The lead in, while strong, appears to be very incompatible.  From vampires on The Originals to a family dramedy in Jane the Virgin, the pairing lacks any similarities.  If The CW were in better position, and had another show similar to Jane the Virgin, chances could be higher for success.  I’m not holding out much hope for Jane, although for some reason, I’ll be rooting for this show all season.
Prediction: WEAK (2)

“Stalker” and “Black-ish” Stable

Stalker_logoThey may not be big numbers, but they sure are stable.  For the third week in a row, Stalker recorded 7.32 million viewers and 1.7 A18-49.  Whether or not that is good enough remains to be seen.  CBS has a lot of midseason option, so keep your eye on where Stalker ends up.

A new episode of Black-ish finally stopped its roller coaster ride in the ratings, holding for the first time.  The latest episode nabbed 8.01 million viewers and 2.5 A18-49.  Retention from its Modern Family lead in was 80% among total viewers and 76% in the demo.

mysteries of lauraNBC’s The Mysteries of Laura dropped a tenth week-to-week, averaging 8.07 million viewers and 1.3 A18-49.  The show skews pretty dang old, and the demo is awful, so I don’t know where NBC stands on extra episodes.  At this point, why not at least try a full season?

Red Band Society was pre-empted for the World Series (2.9 prelim 18-49).

Tuesday Daily Ratings

It was a busy night for new series last night, so lets get started.

marry meWeek two of NBC’s Marry Me took an expected drop, down to 5.61 million viewers and 1.8 18-49, down five tenths from last weeks debut.  It looked as if NBC hoped Marry Me would re-start their comedy lineup, but that appears unlikely.  Retention from The Voice was a pitiful 47% among total viewers and 55% in the demo (although it was undoubtedly lower when you look at 830 to 9 average, as compared to the entire hour) .  Two weeks in, and already below a 2.0 demo.  I think NBC can do better.

selfieABC had some good news and bad news last night.  Week four of Selfie ticked up to 3.82 million viewers and 1.1 A18-49, up a tenth from last night.  No, the numbers are not good, but at least it stopped dropping, right?  The same could not be said for Manhattan Love Story, which dropped even more this week, down to 2.62 million viewers and 0.7 A18-49.  These numbers are just plain ugly.  Look for a cancellation announcement sooner rather than later.  FYI, both are pre-empted next week for Halloween specials.

Rounding out the night on ABC was a new episode of Forever.  The latest episode brought in 4.95 million viewers and 1.2 A18-49, up a tenth from last weeks low.  Once again, Forever grew in total viewers from Agents of Shield, while demonstrating retention of 75 percent in the demographic.  Maybe a better lead in would help Forever?

Week three of CW’s The Flash took a bigger drop than last week, down to 3.59 million viewers and 1.5 A18-49.  Despite dropping another two tenths, this is still huge for The CW.

NCIS-New-Orleans-1-779x400Finally, reliable CBS and its latest NCIS franchise, NCIS: New Orleans continued to put up modest, but solid, numbers.  Last nights episode totaled 16.13 million viewers and 2.4 A18-49, up two tenths from last weeks episode, despite added competition from the World Series.  NCIS: New Orleans had one of its best retentions yet, 94 percent in total viewers and 100 percent in the demo.  When is that full season order coming CBS?

Updated with finals 10/23 at 12:35am.

CW Gives Full Season Orders to Two Series

flash-logoAfter a great start to the new season for the freshman series on The CW, the network is rewarding The Flash and Jane the Virgin with full season orders.

The Flash stormed out of the gate with 4.8 million viewers and 1.9 A18-49.  In week two, it took a slight drop to 4.27 million viewers and 1.7 A18-49, a very slight drop given the huge debut numbers.  These numbers are among the best-ever for The CW, since the premiere of The Vampire Diaries.

jane-the-virgin-key-artIn addition to The FlashJane the Virgin has also been given a full season order.  The series, which actually has some critical acclaim, debuted to a solid 1.61 million viewers and 0.6 A18-49.  In week two, the show surprised everyone, jumping a tenth to 1.78 million viewers and 0.7 A18-49.  There are some network pre-emptions, so numbers could decline (edit: Jane adjusted down to an 0.5 A18-49 in finals).  Despite that, the year-to-year growth in the timeslot is more than enough reason for a full season order.

“We have had a fantastic start to our season this year, with THE FLASH launching as our most-watched series premiere ever, and JANE THE VIRGIN recognized as the best new show this season by critics across the country,” said Pedowitz. “Over the past three seasons, we have made it our mission to grow and to broaden out our audience, and to keep raising the bar with the quality and impact of our new shows, and THE FLASH and JANE have both exceeded our expectations on all counts. I’m thrilled to announce full season orders for both of these terrific new series.”

“Jane the Virgin” Solid in Week Two

jane-the-virgin-key-art(EDIT: In finals, Jane the Virgin adjusted down, notching 1.36 million viewers and 0.5 A18-49 – still, enough for its full season order). Week two of CW’s Jane the Virgin surprised everyone, jumping in week two to 1.78 million viewers and 0.7 A18-49up a tenth from last weeks okay debut.  Again, the numbers are not huge, but they are an improvement over past Monday occupants, and the growth is very positive.  The surprise (hit?) of the season appears to be Jane the Virgin.

A new episode of Scorpion held up week-to-week with 10.75 million viewers and 2.4 A18-49, even with last week despite its lead in switch (The Millers began last night – in an ugly performance, 2.1 demo).  Growth from The Millers was 18 percent among total viewers and two tenths in the demo.  If CBS wanted more good news, Scorpion tied The Blacklist for highest-rated drama last night.  Wow!  This should be more than enough reason to order a full season for Scorpion.

gothamFinally, week five of Gotham slipped to 6.09 million viewers and 2.3 A18-49, down another tenth from last week.  Despite the slippage, Gotham is one of the few bright spots on the FOX schedule.

Updated with finals 10/22.