Emmy Predictions: The Results

Winners are in BOLD
My correct winner prediction is in GREEN
My incorrect winner predictions is in RED

Outstanding Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Louie (FX)
Modern Family (ABC)
Orange is the New Black (Netflix)
Silicon Valley (HBO)
Veep (HBO)

Outstanding Drama Series
Breaking Bad (AMC)

Downton Abbey (PBS)
Game of Thrones (HBO)
House of Cards (Netflix)
Mad Men (AMC)
True Detective (HBO)

Outstanding Variety Series
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

Outstanding Miniseries
American Horror Story: Coven (FX)
Bonnie & Clyde (A&E)
Fargo (FX)
Luther (BBC America)
Treme (HBO)
The White Queen (Starz)

Outstanding Television Movie
Killing Kennedy (National Geographic)
Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight (HBO)
The Normal Heart (HBO)
Sherlock: “His Last Vow” (PBS)
The Trip to Bountiful (Lifetime)

Outstanding Reality – Competition Series
The Amazing Race (CBS)

Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
Project Runway (Lifetime)
So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)
Top Chef (Bravo)
The Voice (NBC)

Outstanding Series Results: 4/6 (67%)


Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Louis C.K. (Louie)
Don Cheadle (House of Lies)
Ricky Gervais (Derek)
Matt LeBlanc (Episodes)
William H. Macy (Shameless)
Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)

Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom)
Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
Woody Harrelson (True Detective)
Matthew McConaughey (True Detective)
Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Benedict Cumberbatch (Sherlock)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (Dancing on the Edge)
Idris Elba (Luther)
Martin Freeman (Fargo)
Mark Ruffalo (The Normal Heart)
Billy Bob Thornton (Fargo)

Lead Actor Results: 2/3 (66%)


Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Lena Dunham (Girls)
Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
Melissa McCarthy (Mike & Molly)
Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation)
Taylor Schilling (Orange is the New Black)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Lizzy Caplan (Masters of Sex)
Claire Danes (Homeland)
Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey)
Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
Kerry Washington (Scandal)
Robin Wright (House of Cards)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Helena Bonham Carter (Burton & Taylor)
Minnie Driver (Return to Zero)
Jessica Lange (American Horror Story: Coven)
Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Coven)
Cicely Tyson (The Trip to Bountiful)
Kristen Wiig (The Spoils of Babylon)

Lead Actress Results: 2/3 (66%)


Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Fred Armisen (Portlandia)
Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
Adam Driver (Girls)
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
Tony Hale (Veep)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jim Carter (Downton Abbey)
Josh Charles (The Good Wife)
Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)
Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)
Jon Voight (Ray Donovan)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Matt Bomer (The Normal Heart)
Martin Freeman (Sherlock: His Last Vow)
Colin Hanks (Fargo)
Joe Mantello (The Normal Heart)
Alfred Molina (The Normal Heart)
Jim Parsons (The Normal Heart)

Supporting Actor Results: 0/3 (0%)


Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory)
Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
Anna Chlumsky (Veep)
Allison Janney (Mom)
Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
Kate Mulgrew (Orange is the New Black)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)
Joanne Froggatt (Downton Abbey)
Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad)
Lena Heady (Game of Thrones)
Christina Hendricks (Mad Men)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Angela Bassett (American Horror Story: Coven)
Kathy Bates (American Horror Story: Coven)
Ellen Burstyn (Flowers in the Attic)
Frances Conroy (American Horror Story: Coven)
Julia Roberts (The Normal Heart)
Allison Tolman (Fargo)

Supporting Actress Results: 2/3 (66%)


OVERALL NUMBER OF PREDICTIONS CORRECT: 10/18 (56% correct)

BREAKDOWN BY CATEGORY:
Drama – 4/5 (80%)
Comedy – 3/5 (60%)
Miniseries/Movie – 2/6 (33%)

Clearly, my strongest category was drama.  The only miss was Josh Charles for Aaron Paul.  The one category I bet against Breaking Bad was probably the one certain win.  Big mistake there!

My comedy performance was a bit off, but I did correctly pick the 2 wins for CBS, and Julia-Louis Dreyfus.  Betting against Modern Family (sigh) is a downfall.  I put too many eggs in the basket for Orange is the New Black.

Perhaps next year I stay away from the miniseries/movie categories.


Any major upsets this year?  What were the biggest surprises?  Was somebody completely snubbed (ahem, Netflix)?  Sound off with your thoughts below!

 

 

Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actress

momOutstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory)
Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
Anna Chlumsky (Veep)
Allison Janney (Mom)
Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
Kate Mulgrew (Orange is the New Black)

I feel like I’ve said this quite a few times, but man, what a category full of well deserved nominees!  The only one I’d argue against off the bat is Kate McKinnon, mainly because nobody from Saturday Night Live ever seems to win.  Julie Bowen is a two time winner for her role on Modern Family, scoring a win in 2011 and 2012.  Anna Chlumsky earned her second nomination, but failed to win last year, so I don’t see her picking up a win this time around.  The Emmy voters love Allison Janney, who already picked up a win this year for Outstanding Guess Actress in a Drama Series – Masters of Sex.  Janney also won four Emmy’s for her time on The West Wing.  Mayim Bialik has been a shining star on The Big Bang Theory, and yet, a win seems unlikely in her third year as a nominee.  Finally, Kate Mulgrew from Orange is the New Black.  Her role was superb and really showcased her talents.  As said in previous posts, critics will adore Orange is the New Black.  I’ve gone back and forth between Bowen, Janney, and Mulgrew.  I’m going to pick Allison Janney for the win, and I’m hoping it brings more exposure to Mom.

breaking badOutstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)
Joanne Froggatt (Downton Abbey)
Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad)
Lena Heady (Game of Thrones)
Christina Hendricks (Mad Men)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

This is the fifth consecutive nomination for Christina Hendricks and Christine Baranski in the category; both will leave empty handed again this year.  Joanne Froggatt and Lena Headey earned their first nominations, although neither is likely to win.  Maggie Smith won in 2012, and Anna Gunn won last year.  I really thought Christine Baranski might have had a shot to win, but I just don’t see it happening (sorry Christine).  The only woman likely to walk away with the award, again this year, is Anna Gunn.

CovenOutstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Angela Bassett (American Horror Story: Coven)
Kathy Bates (American Horror Story: Coven)
Ellen Burstyn (Flowers in the Attic)
Frances Conroy (American Horror Story: Coven)
Julia Roberts (The Normal Heart)
Allison Tolman (Fargo)

Last year, Ellen Burstyn won for her role on Political Animals, and this year shes nominated for Flowers in the Attic.  Don’t be surprised if she wins again.  Kathy Bates and Frances Conroy had solid roles in American Horror Story: Coven.  Similar to many other miniseries/movie categories; however, there is one standout in Angela Bassett.  Then again, three terrific nominees in one category could ultimately dilute voting totals for each.  Julia Roberts is a well-known name, and The Normal Heart was well liked.  Fargo earned rave reviews, which could score Allison Tolman a win.  While the competition is tough, I think Ellen Burstyn earns a second win in a row in the category (and for a different series this year).

Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actor

veepOutstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Fred Armisen (Portlandia)
Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
Adam Driver (Girls)
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
Tony Hale (Veep)

Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Ty Burrell (as well as Julie Bowen) have been nominated for their work on Modern Family since the inception of the series.  They are the only three castmembers who have been nominated year after year.  Jesse has yet to win, while Ty won in 2011.  Neither is likely to pick up a win this year (sorry, Jesse).  I think this race comes down to Andre Braugher and last years winner, Tony Hale.  It will be an interesting race to watch.  The Emmy voters clearly love Veep, and the cast attached to the series.  Andre Braugher has won two Emmys, one for his role on Homicide: Life on the Street in 1998, and one for Thief in 2006.  Basically, the Emmy voters love both men.  It’ll be hard for Tony Hale to lose this one.

breaking badOutstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jim Carter (Downton Abbey)
Josh Charles (The Good Wife)
Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)
Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)
Jon Voight (Ray Donovan)

Last years winner, Bobby Cannavale (Boardwalk Empire), isn’t here this year, so the category is up for grabs.  Aaron Paul has won twice (2010 and 2012), and Peter Dinklage has won once (2011).  I don’t see Peter Dinkage winning this season, although Aaron Paul is a good possibility.  Mandy Patinkin was nominated last year, and lost, but could sneak in a win with Cannavale gone.  This is the first nomination for Jon Voight, who is well liked on Ray Donovan.  Then there is Josh Charles, who is generating a lot of buzz after his character was killed on The Good Wife.  It’s hard to bet against Aaron Paul and Breaking Bad, but I think it will happen here.  I’m going with Josh Charles, and I’m not sure I consider it an upset.

thenormalheartmovieOutstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Matt Bomer (The Normal Heart)
Martin Freeman (Sherlock: His Last Vow)
Colin Hanks (Fargo)
Joe Mantello (The Normal Heart)
Alfred Molina (The Normal Heart)
Jim Parsons (The Normal Heart)

There sure are a lot of The Normal Heart nominations, huh?  Since The Normal Heart was well-received, the winner is likely to be one of those actors, unless the votes cannibalize one another.  I don’t see that happening though, since most of the attention has been focused on one man: Matt Bomer.  Jim Parsons could sneak in a win, but he will likely have one in the bag for Best Actor in a Comedy, not this category.  Joe Mantello’s role was also well received in The Normal Heart.  As I already said though, I can’t see Matt Bomer losing this category.


Coming tomorrow: Best Supporting Actress

Emmy Predictions: Lead Actress

Parks_and_recreation_titleOutstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Lena Dunham (Girls)
Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
Melissa McCarthy (Mike & Molly)
Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation)
Taylor Schilling (Orange is the New Black)

Right off the bat, no way Lena Dunham nor Melissa McCarthy win the Emmy.  This is the third nomination for both Lena and Melissa.  Lena has never won, so don’t be surprised to see her lose again.  Despite winning before, Melissa McCarthy doesn’t stand much of a chance, since her nomination was a shock, and the competition is quite stiff.  Edie Falco has been nominated many times as well, with one win coming in 2010.  It appears her time has passed for another win.  For the fifth time, Amy Poehler was nominated, but has yet to walk away with a win.  Like the other ladies already mentioned, I don’t see Amy taking the prize.  That leaves us with the winner of the past two years, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, and star of Orange is the New Black, Taylor Schilling.  While her work is quite good on ‘Black‘, Schilling will be defeated.  The Emmy’s love Julia Louis-Dreyfus, and nothing will stop her from clinching her third Emmy in a row for her work on Veep.

Homeland-2Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Lizzy Caplan (Masters of Sex)
Claire Danes (Homeland)
Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey)
Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
Kerry Washington (Scandal)
Robin Wright (House of Cards)

The last (and only) woman to win three consecutive Emmy’s in this category was Tyne Daley, when she did it for her role on Cagney & Lacey in the early 1980s.  Should Claire Danes win this year, she would become the second woman to win three consecutive Emmy’s for the category.  The competition is stiff.  Julianna Margulies returns to the game, after being snubbed last season, and Lizzy Caplan comes onto the scene with a powerful role.  Kerry Washington, Michelle Dockery, and Robin Wright were all nominated last year, and will likely leave empty handed yet again.  So, this is a three way race between Caplan, Danes, and Margulies.  Caplan is unlikely to win, although I would not be surprised if she was the dark horse to steal the win.  I’ve gone back and forth between Margulies and Danes, unable to decide who will win.  It seems unlikely that the very likable Danes will lose, but Homeland is coming off a slow year, while The Good Wife is heating up (despite not picking up a Drama nomination).  In the end, I’m going with Juliana Margulies.

CovenOutstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Helena Bonham Carter (Burton & Taylor)
Minnie Driver (Return to Zero)
Jessica Lange (American Horror Story: Coven)
Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Coven)
Cicely Tyson (The Trip to Bountiful)
Kristen Wiig (The Spoils of Babylon)

Where to begin.  This is probably the toughest category for me to figure out, simply because I haven’t heard much about any of the nominees.  I read up on each of their performances for some help, and then made a decision.  Helena Bonham Carter did excellent work for her role, earning unanimous praise, but it has yet to win a single award.  Minnie Driver has won an Emmy before, and the same goes for Jessica Lange – either of these two could win.  Sarah Paulson is out of reach since Jessica Lange is the face of American Horror Story.  Cicely Tyson and Kristen Wigg are not likely to win, as neither miniseries/movie drummed up much support.  I was torn between Jessica Lange and Helena Bonham Carter, but my money is on Helena Bonham Carter.


Coming Tomorrow: Best Supporting Actor

Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor

big bangOutstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Louis C.K. (Louie)
Don Cheadle (House of Lies)
Ricky Gervais (Derek)
Matt LeBlanc (Episodes)
William H. Macy (Shameless)
Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)

Jim Parsons won the Emmy for Outstanding Actor two years in a row, lost to Jon Cryer in a major upset the following year, and then regained his crown last year.  Essentially, this is Jim Parsons to win.  This is the fourth time Louis C.K. has been nominated, but he has yet to win.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he finally wins, though its a slim chance.  Nobody else in the category screams “winner”.  Jim Parsons is the easy favorite to win.

poster_truedetectiveOutstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom)
Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
Woody Harrelson (True Detective)
Matthew McConaughey (True Detective)
Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)

Now this is very interesting.  I consider this to be the most difficult category to win.  Jon Hamm has been nominated seven times, and has yet to win.  I don’t see him sneaking in for a win given how tough competition this year.  Jeff Daniels surprised everyone last year and won.  Unlikely to happen again this year.  Netflix would love to see Kevin Spacey win, but again, it won’t happen.  This is a three-way race between Cranston, Harrelson, and McConaughey.  Harrelson could win since True Detective was acclaimed; however, the focus has been more on McConaughey than anyone else.  McConaughey won the Critics Choice Television Award for Best Actor in a Drama Series, defeating Bryan Cranston (the only two crossovers between the two award shows in the category).  That puts McConaughey in a solid position to win, if not for Cranston.  Despite not winning the Emmy for Best Actor since the ’09-’10 Emmy’s, it seems inconceivable that Cranston could lose this season.  The episode he is nominated for, Ozymandias”, is considered by some to be the best hour of television ever.  This is the final time Bryan Cranston can win for Breaking Bad, so I’m saying he defeats the difficult competition.

Sherlock_titlecardOutstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Benedict Cumberbatch (Sherlock)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (Dancing on the Edge)
Idris Elba (Luther)
Martin Freeman (Fargo)
Mark Ruffalo (The Normal Heart)
Billy Bob Thornton (Fargo)

With the exception of Idris Elba, the remaining five men were all nominated for Best Actor in a Movie/Miniseries at the Critics Choice Television Awards.  For that reason alone, I’m thinking Idris Elba will not win (although the two award show winners are rarely similar).  The award, in case you were curious, would eventually go to Billy Bob Thornton.  Regarding the Emmy’s, Cumberbatch has been nominated before for his role, and lost.  Ejiofor could surprise, but Dancing on the Edge really never stood out this year.  Like McConaughey/Harrelson with True Detective, Thronton is probably more deserving than Freeman for Fargo.  The front-runner; however, is Mark Ruffalo.  Reviews for HBO’s The Normal Heart were very positive, as were reviews for the acting.  Ruffalo and Thornton will duke it out until the end, with Mark Ruffalo taking home the award.


Coming tomorrow: Lead Actress