Everything Down – Tuesday Ratings

With added competition from game six of the World Series (despite being a 10-0 blowout), every new series was down from last week.

NCIS-New-Orleans-1-779x400The show that took the slightest hit this week was CBS’ NCIS: New Orleans. The third NCIS series scored 16.09 million viewers and 2.3 A18-49, down only a tenth from last week. Retention from the mothership was 92 percent in total viewers and 88 percent in the demo. Not bad, not bad at all.

A new episode of promising The Flash, which totaled 3.53 million viewers and 1.4 A18-49, also down a tenth from last week.  All in all, a very solid week four.

marry meWeek three of Marry Me dipped to 5.06 million viewers and 1.5 A18-49. Had these numbers been in any other timeslot, they would be solid. Behind The Voice, however, they are alarming. Retention was a terrible 45% among total viewers and 52% in the demo. If we looked at the 830 to 9 o’clock retention, I’m sure it slips even further.

Rounding out the new series was ABC’s Forever. It’s latest episode was down a tenth from last week, nothing 4.95 million viewers and 1.1 A18-49. Retention from Agents of Shield was an alarming 59% in the demo (while growing in total viewers). The incompatibility of these two show is quite obvious, yet ABC doesn’t make any changes.

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Chances of New Dramas: The CW

Edit: This post was originally typed in August, and never posted.

Here is the NEW scale that will be used this season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series
Keep in mind, The CW scale is in relative terms to other CW series, i.e. “Breakout” would mean higher than most other shows on the network, while “Weak” would simply mean its below average for the network.  Comparisons to the other four broadcast networks are basically meaningless.

flash-logoQuick Premise: Based on The Flash comic book, a man wakes up from a coma with superhuman speed.
Timeslot: Tuesdays at 8/7c
Lead in: Local programming
Competition: Manhattan Love StoryNCIS, SelfieUtopiaThe Voice

Analysis: The CW had big success with Arrow, and two years later they are hoping from more of the same with The Flash.  The Originals successfully launched in the hour last season, so there is every reason to believe The Flash can do the same.  The 8 o’clock hour is typically higher rated on The CW, since local programming gives the network a big push (more so than other networks, it appears).  The competition, while tough with NCIS and The Voice, shouldn’t really put a dent in The Flash.  The CW rarely seems to be effected by other networks programming, other than American Idol and The Voice.  The difference here is The Flash will likely skew more male, taking away the sting from The Voice.  With a built-in name and fan-base, The Flash should have no trouble breaking out for The CW.  It is one of the safest bets of the season.
Prediction: BREAKOUT (5)

jane-the-virgin-key-artQuick Premise: A doctor accidentally artificially inseminates a young virgin.
Timeslot: Mondays at 9/8c
Lead in: The Originals
Competition: Dancing with the StarsScorpionSleepy Hollow, The Voice

Analysis: Once you get past the wacky concept, Jane the Virgin is essentially a family drama.  Set in Miami, and focusing on a Latino family, The CW could tap into an audience that is forgotten on broadcast television.  In fact, I think this show could be a surprise and be the next Ugly Betty, although chances are slim.  Competition for a similar audience in the hour is going to be tough.  The Voice has the young females, and Dancing with the Stars has the older females.  That doesn’t leave much for Jane the Virgin, unless it can tap into the Latino audience.  The lead in, while strong, appears to be very incompatible.  From vampires on The Originals to a family dramedy in Jane the Virgin, the pairing lacks any similarities.  If The CW were in better position, and had another show similar to Jane the Virgin, chances could be higher for success.  I’m not holding out much hope for Jane, although for some reason, I’ll be rooting for this show all season.
Prediction: WEAK (2)

Tuesday Daily Ratings

It was a busy night for new series last night, so lets get started.

marry meWeek two of NBC’s Marry Me took an expected drop, down to 5.61 million viewers and 1.8 18-49, down five tenths from last weeks debut.  It looked as if NBC hoped Marry Me would re-start their comedy lineup, but that appears unlikely.  Retention from The Voice was a pitiful 47% among total viewers and 55% in the demo (although it was undoubtedly lower when you look at 830 to 9 average, as compared to the entire hour) .  Two weeks in, and already below a 2.0 demo.  I think NBC can do better.

selfieABC had some good news and bad news last night.  Week four of Selfie ticked up to 3.82 million viewers and 1.1 A18-49, up a tenth from last night.  No, the numbers are not good, but at least it stopped dropping, right?  The same could not be said for Manhattan Love Story, which dropped even more this week, down to 2.62 million viewers and 0.7 A18-49.  These numbers are just plain ugly.  Look for a cancellation announcement sooner rather than later.  FYI, both are pre-empted next week for Halloween specials.

Rounding out the night on ABC was a new episode of Forever.  The latest episode brought in 4.95 million viewers and 1.2 A18-49, up a tenth from last weeks low.  Once again, Forever grew in total viewers from Agents of Shield, while demonstrating retention of 75 percent in the demographic.  Maybe a better lead in would help Forever?

Week three of CW’s The Flash took a bigger drop than last week, down to 3.59 million viewers and 1.5 A18-49.  Despite dropping another two tenths, this is still huge for The CW.

NCIS-New-Orleans-1-779x400Finally, reliable CBS and its latest NCIS franchise, NCIS: New Orleans continued to put up modest, but solid, numbers.  Last nights episode totaled 16.13 million viewers and 2.4 A18-49, up two tenths from last weeks episode, despite added competition from the World Series.  NCIS: New Orleans had one of its best retentions yet, 94 percent in total viewers and 100 percent in the demo.  When is that full season order coming CBS?

Updated with finals 10/23 at 12:35am.

CW Gives Full Season Orders to Two Series

flash-logoAfter a great start to the new season for the freshman series on The CW, the network is rewarding The Flash and Jane the Virgin with full season orders.

The Flash stormed out of the gate with 4.8 million viewers and 1.9 A18-49.  In week two, it took a slight drop to 4.27 million viewers and 1.7 A18-49, a very slight drop given the huge debut numbers.  These numbers are among the best-ever for The CW, since the premiere of The Vampire Diaries.

jane-the-virgin-key-artIn addition to The FlashJane the Virgin has also been given a full season order.  The series, which actually has some critical acclaim, debuted to a solid 1.61 million viewers and 0.6 A18-49.  In week two, the show surprised everyone, jumping a tenth to 1.78 million viewers and 0.7 A18-49.  There are some network pre-emptions, so numbers could decline (edit: Jane adjusted down to an 0.5 A18-49 in finals).  Despite that, the year-to-year growth in the timeslot is more than enough reason for a full season order.

“We have had a fantastic start to our season this year, with THE FLASH launching as our most-watched series premiere ever, and JANE THE VIRGIN recognized as the best new show this season by critics across the country,” said Pedowitz. “Over the past three seasons, we have made it our mission to grow and to broaden out our audience, and to keep raising the bar with the quality and impact of our new shows, and THE FLASH and JANE have both exceeded our expectations on all counts. I’m thrilled to announce full season orders for both of these terrific new series.”

“Marry Me” OK in Debut

marry meThe series premiere of Marry Me kicked off with 7.54 million viewers and 2.3 A18-49. That is an OK start for the comedy, which benefited from the lead in of The Voice. Retention from The Voice was an 61% among total viewers and 68% in the demo.  Given most shows drop 15-20 percent in week two, I think this is just an OK start for Marry Me.

Meanwhile, week two of The Flash took a small 11% week two drop, notching 4.27 million viewers and 1.7 A18-49. Don’t be surprised for a full season order announcement within the coming week. These numbers are the real deal for The CW.

manhattan-love-story-abcOver at ABC, the Tuesday comedy block appears to be ending soon. Week three of Selfie dropped another 16% to 3.44 million viewers and 1.0 A18-49. It’s lead out, Manhattan Love Story stabilized with a weak 2.87 million viewers and 0.9 A18-49. ABC has to fix this hour, and quick.

Also on ABC was a new episode of Forever, which brought in 4.81 million viewers and 1.1 A18-49. That number represents another 15% drop for the 10 o’clock drama. Looks like ABC needs an all new Tuesday night lineup…again.

NCIS-New-Orleans-1-779x400Finally, NCIS: New Orleans scored 16.14 million viewers and 2.2 A18-49. The show dropped a tenth in the demo week-to-week (along with its lead in), while picking up some viewers (about 400,000).

Updated with finals 10/15 at 910pm.