Returning Comedies and Dramas Results: 2014-15

In September 2014, I went ahead and predicted which returning comedies and dramas would be renewed for the 2014-15 television season.  This was the third time I attempted to predict network decisions prior to the start of the television season.

For the results, I split each show into one of four categories: those I predicted would be renewed (for comedies and dramas), and those I predicted would be cancelled (again, for comedies and dramas).  If a show is colored in GREEN, the series was renewed.  If a show is colored in RED; the series was cancelled.

I predicted the following comedies would be renewed:
2 Broke Girls
Brooklyn Nine Nine
Last Man Standing
Mike and Molly
Modern Family
Mom
The Goldbergs
The Middle
The Millers

Success rate: 8/9 (89%)

Analysis: Just like last season, I finished 8/9 in the comedy renewal category.  If only it were not for the sudden cancellation of The Millers a few episodes into its second season!

I predicted the following comedies would be cancelled:
New Girl
The Mindy Project
Success rate: 1/2 (50%)

Analysis: The Mindy Project was officially cancelled by FOX, but there are rumors the series may return in a two season deal on Hulu.  Even if the pickup does occur, the series was technically cancelled by FOX.  As for New Girl, I figured a cancellation was not going to happen

Despite the ownership by 20th Century FOX, nothing says “keep New Girl on the air” – even its huge syndication deal on Netflix, TBS, and MTV.  I’ll probably be wrong with this prediction, but my gut continues to tell me New Girl is dunzo.

Overall success rate for comedies: 9/11 (82%)


I predicted the following dramas would be renewed:
Agents of SHIELD
Arrow
Bones
Blue Bloods
Castle
Chicago Fire
Chicago PD
Criminal Minds
CSI
Elementary
Grey’s Anatomy
Grimm
Hawaii Five-0
NCIS
NCIS: Los Angeles
Once Upon a Time
Person of Interest
Reign
Resurrection
Scandal
Sleepy Hollow
Supernatural
The 100
The Blacklist
The Following
The Good Wife
The Originals
The Vampire Diaries
Success rate: 26/28 (93%)

Analysis: Other than Resurrection and The Following meeting their demise, my predictions for renewals were not too far off from being correct.  I was a little hesitant to mark CSI as renewed, but since it is coming back for a two-hour wrap up movie, I consider next season the official end.  As a note, I originally predicted the fate of Hannibal (as renewed), although it never aired in the regular season so I removed it from the results.

What I said about The Following (after giving it a 50.1% chance of returning):

Throw in new leadership at FOX, and the fate of The Following is pretty murky.  This is one of the few shows that could very well go either way.  It’ll be close, but I think FOX sticks around for at least one more go-around.

I predicted the following dramas would be cancelled:
Hart of Dixie
Law and Order: SVU
Nashville
Revenge
The Mentalist
Success rate: 3/5 (20%)

Analysis: For the second year in a row, I really thought it was the end of the line for Law and Order: SVU.  Maybe it is time to stop predicting a cancellation?  I was also off about Nashville, which ABC seems to really love.

Overall success rate for dramas: 29/33 (88%)


Overall success rate for comedies and dramas:  38/44 (86%)

Chances of New Series: 2014-15 Results

Over the course of television season, I predicted the fate of nearly every new series (I forgot all about Secrets and Lies).  After yet another television season, the results of my predictions are finally here!  If a show was cancelled, it is colored RED and if a show was renewed, it is colored GREEN.

Here is the scale I used throughout the season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series

For the results, I placed each series into the respective category I initially predicted it would fall in.  The Breakout and Hit categories were a prediction for renewal, while Weak and Bomb categories were a prediction for cancellation.  A Solid title was a prediction for a toss-up, although I did make a call in favor of renewal or cancellation.

I predicted the following series would be Breakouts:
The Flash
How to Get Away with Murder

Success rate: 2/2 (100%)


I predicted the following series would be Hits:
Black-ish
NCIS: New Orleans

Success rate: 2/2 (100%)


I predicted the following series would be Solid performers, but still be renewed (unless noted):
Agent Carter
American Crime (predicted cancellation)

Constantine
Cristela
CSI: Cyber
Gotham
iZombie
Marry Me
Madam Secretary
Stalker
The Odd Couple
Success rate: 6/11 (55%)


I predicted the following series would be Weak  performers:
A to Z
Allegiance
American Odyssey
Bad Judge
Battle Creek
Empire
Fresh off the Boat
Gracepoint
Jane the Virgin
Mulaney
Red Band Society
Scorpion
State of Affairs
The Last Man on Earth
The McCarthys
Success rate: 10/15 (67%)


I predicted the following series would Bomb:
Backstrom
Forever
Galavant
Manhattan Love Story
One Big Happy
Selfie
The Messengers
The Mysteries of Laura
Weird Loners
Success rate: 7/9 (78%)


Overall success rate: 27/39 (69%) (last season was 61%)

Chances of New Series: Late March 2015

Here is the NEW scale that will be used this season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series

one big happyQuick Premise: A man marries one woman, while his lesbian best friend is having his baby.
Timeslot: Tuesdays at 930/830c
Lead in: Undateable
Competition: Agents of SHIELD, iZombie, NCIS: New Orleans, and Weird Loners

Analysis: NBC is giving the multi-camera comedy genre another chance to succeed on their network.  From Ellen DeGeneres, NBC has been pushing One Big Happy for a couple of months now.  Unfortunately, most of the ads have been painfully unfunny.  One Big Happy may receive some help from The Voice airing 30 minutes prior, although most of the audience may flee during last summers low-rated Undateable.  Luckily, however, the competition in the hour is pretty weak as nothing else in the timeslot is similar to One Big Happy.  In the end, the weak lead in, as well as weak premise, will lead to the demise of yet another comedy on NBC.
Prediction: BOMB (1)

izombieQuick Premise: Based on the comic book, a medical student eats the brains of the dead to help solve their murder.
Timeslot: Tuesdays at 9/8c
Lead in: The Flash
Competition: Agents of SHIELDNCIS: New Orleans, New GirlOne Big HappyUndateable, and Weird Loners

Analysis: Hoping to cash in on the zombie craze, The CW brings us iZombie from Rob Thomas.  The network gave iZombie the best chance possible to succeed, placing it behind The Flash, one of the strongest new series of the season.  The premise is a bit odd, but I do believe there are enough people interested to give this a solid preview.  Like One Big Happy, there is nothing else on in the hour that will drain viewers from iZombie.  Once viewers settle in, I am predicting iZombie will be another The 100: nothing special, but a stable 0.5-0.6 performer.
Prediction: SOLID (3) – renewed for second season

weird lonersQuick Premise: Four single friends live in a townhouse together.
Timeslot: Tuesdays at 930/830c
Lead in: New Girl
Competition: Agents of SHIELD, iZombie, NCIS: New Orleans, and One Big Happy

Analysis: No other comedy will have a harder time launching than Weird Loners.  FOX is burying it behind low-rated New Girl, at the end of March, with a six episode order.  All of these strikes against Weird Loners make me very wary on the chances of success for the new comedy.  In addition, the premise is very outdated, and I have not seen many ads for the show.  Weird Loners feels like a major bomb.  It will be interesting to see if all six episodes even air.
Prediction: BOMB (1)

Chances of New Series: Early March 2015

Here is the NEW scale that will be used this season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series

american crimeQuick Premise: The first season of this anthology crime drama follows a racially charged murder and trial.
Timeslot: Thursdays at 10/9c
Lead in: Scandal
Competition: Allegiance and Elementary

Analysis: There is no better place on the ABC schedule for American Crime than airing behind Scandal.  A 2.8-3.2 lead in each week will do wonders for the show and give it ample support (at least for a premiere).  ABC is stressing the fact the series from John Ridley (12 Years a Slave) and stars Felicity Huffman and to an extent, Timothy Hutton.  Gracepoint, which debuted earlier this season, also featured a murder of a young boy and cancelled after its low-rated run.  That makes this a real toss-up in terms of how American Crime will perform.  There is no chance it touches the heights of How to Get Away with Murder, but I do not see a big bomb here either.
Prediction: SOLID (3) – but cancelled after one season

battle creekQuick Premise: A police detective and FBI agent work cases together in Michigan.
Timeslot: Sundays at 10/9c
Lead in: The Good Wife
Competition: Dateline NBCOdyssey (effective 4/1) and Revenge

Analysis: From David Shore (House) and Vince Gilligan (Breaking Bad), CBS is hoping for a stronger Sunday night lineup with Battle Creek.  There certainly won’t be an immense amount of lead in support with The Good Wife, but its higher-income (and older) viewers will certainly be of help.  CBS viewers tend to reject the cookie-cutter cop shows, and CBS has been stressing this is not the average cop show.  It will be interesting to see if the average CBS viewer watches this series, or the average CBS Sunday night viewer tunes in.  In the end, airing on Sundays at 10 makes this feel like a burn-off.
Prediction: WEAK (2)

last man on earthQuick Premise: The last man on Earth searches for others.
Timeslot: Sundays at 930/830c
Lead in: Family Guy
Competition: AD: Before the Bible (effective 4/1), The Good WifeSecrets & Lies

Analysis: Reviews for The Last Man on Earth have been surprisingly positive, with a solid score of 77 on Metacritic.  The debut for the new single-camera comedy is one hour, following a new episode of Brooklyn Nine-Nine, before shifting to 930, following Family Guy, next week.  As of late, the Sunday night lineup on FOX has struggled, so it has me a bit concerned as to how well The Last Man on Earth can perform.  In addition, the entire premise of the entire series has me worried.  Can this really be sustainable as a weekly comedic series or is it better off as a movie?  I think The Last Man on Earth will be sampled, but long term success seems doubtful.
Prediction: WEAK (2)

csi cyberQuick Premise: The fourth series in the CSI franchise takes a look at cyber crimes.
Timeslot: Wednesdays at 10/9c
Lead in: Criminal Minds
Competition: Chicago P.D. and Nashville

 Analysis: Just a few weeks ago, CBS aired what could be the final episode of the CSI mothership, and now we get a new series in the franchise!  CSI: Cyber mixes up the basic CSI formula in that the cases begin on the internet and are then solved in the real world.  The built-in name should at least give CSI: Cyber an initial boost, but whether that boost is large enough remains to be seen.  The timeslot competition is certainly not difficult, although Chicago P.D. could take away some of the audience.  Stalker really struggled in this timeslot in the fall, so the bar for CSI: Cyber is not too high.  I think CSI: Cyber should do at least three to four tenths better and any timeslot improvement is a positive.  CSI: Cyber won’t be a huge hit, but it’ll be enough to come back for another season in the fall.
Prediction: SOLID (3) – renewed for second season

Chances of New Series: January 2015

Here is the NEW scale that will be used this season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series

agent carterQuick Premise: A new series within the Marvel franchise.
Timeslot: Tuesdays at 9/8c
Lead in: Encore programming
Competition: About a BoyMarry MeThe Mindy Project, NCIS: New Orleans, New GirlSupernatural

Analysis: Agents of Shield certainly has not been a huge hit, but it has done solid numbers in its two season run.  In either event, I doubt Agent Carter will have as big of a debut as Agents of Shield, and in the long run, ratings will likely be a tick or two lower for Agent Carter.  ABC only order eight episodes, so Agent Carter doesn’t have much time to make a name for itself.  Still, it should be a positive run, prompting ABC to order another season.
Prediction: Solid (3)

backstromQuick Premise: A comedy-drama focusing on an odd detective (Rainn Wilson).
Timeslot: Thursdays at 9/8c
Lead in: American Idol
Competition: A to Z and Bad Judge (for two weeks), The Blacklist (starting 2/5), The McCarthys, ReignScandal (starting 1/29), Two and a Half Men

Analysis: It’s been a long run for Backstrom to make it to television.  CBS ordered a pilot in 2012, only to pass on it shortly after.  20th Century FOX shopped the series around, and it landed at FOX with a 13 episode order.  Two and a half years after shooting its first pilot, Backstrom is finally debuting.  Unfortunately for the series, it will air in the most competitive timeslot on television, against The BlacklistScandal, and the final five episodes of Two and a Half Men.  Trying to carve out its own audience against the stiff competition is not going to be easy.  Years ago, airing behind American Idol would have been enough to give Backstrom a boost, but not anymore.  If you recall, Rake debuted behind American Idol last season and struggled mightily.  Despite a promotional push, FOX does not have a hit on its hands here, just another Rake.
Prediction: Bomb (1)

empireQuick Premise: A powerful family owns a hip hop empire.
Timeslot: Wednesdays at 9/8c
Lead in: American Idol
Competition: The 100Black-ishCriminal MindsModern FamilyLaw and Order: SVU

Analysis: A lot seems to be riding on the latest music series from FOX, with it being given the lead in of American Idol and a huge promotional push.  Unfortunately, American Idol is no longer a beast and the promotions for Empire have been pretty awful.  I do, however, believe Empire will have a solid debut, just because of people will want to see what this show is all about.  The debut will be the only redeeming piece of ratings data for Empire, however, as people will quickly flee for other offerings in the hour.  Since FOX is having a miserable season, I’m sure all 13 episodes will air, although nothing past those initial episodes.  Sorry FOX, but you’re bad luck isn’t going to end with Empire, it’ll only continue.
Prediction: Weak (2)

galavantQuick Premise: A fairy-tale comedy following Galavant, a man set out to seek revenge on a King who stole his true love.
Timeslot: Sundays at 8/7c (back-to-back episodes)
Lead in: America’s Funniest Home Videos
Competition: Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Dateline NBC, Madam SecretaryThe Simpsons

Analysis: I have to give it to ABC, Galavant is probably the most original new offering of the season.  The way ABC is airing Galavant, however, makes me wonder how much faith they have in the series.  Back-to-back episodes for only a few weeks screams burn-off.  Once Upon a Time was able to flourish in the timeslot, so perhaps ABC is hoping to make magic strike twice.  Galavant may be able to carve out its own audience in the hour, simply because competition is so light (other than football-fueled Simpsons – at least for the debut episode).  Then again, could the series be way too quirky for the average viewer?  I think Galavant is an interesting series to watch ratings wise, and if it does well enough, ABC may order a series similar to it for next season.  The only problem?  I expect the series to fall flat, prompting ABC to cancel Galavant after its initial eight episodes.
Prediction: Bomb (1)