Returning Comedies and Dramas Results

In September 2013, I went ahead and predicted which returning comedies and dramas would be renewed for the 2014-15 television season.  This was the second time I attempted to predict network decisions prior to the start of the television season.

For the most recent edition, I predicted the fates of 14 broadcast comedies and 14 broadcast dramas.  For the results, I split each show into one of four categories: those I predicted would be renewed (for comedies and dramas), and those I predicted would be cancelled (again, for comedies and dramas).  If a show is colored in GREEN, I correctly predicted its fate.  If a show is colored in RED; however, my prediction was wrong.

I predicted the following comedies would be renewed:
Last Man Standing
The Middle
Modern Family
2 Broke Girls
The Big Bang Theory
Mike & Molly
New Girl
Raising Hope
Parks and Recreation
Success rate: 8/9 (89%)

Analysis: Looking back, I did quite well calling the comedy renewals.  Of course, most of the shows were easy calls, but one did come down to the wire (Last Man Standing).  As for Raising Hope, I gave the show a 51% chance of returning.  I initially thought FOX would run away from the idea of moving the show to Friday nights, hence giving it a higher-viewed timeslot, and a chance at returning this season.  Within my prediction I did say if the show was actually moved to Fridays; however, it would be cancelled:

“If the move to Friday does actually happen, I believe this could possibly be the final season of Raising Hope.  However, I am going to stay positive and say the show advances to a fifth season.”

So sure, I was wrong about Raising Hope, but I was close, right?

I predicted the following comedies would be cancelled:
The Neighbors
Suburgatory
Two and a Half Men
The Mindy Project
Community
Success rate: 3/5 (60%)

Analysis: The three comedies that were actually cancelled all had their fates determined just last week.  Suburgatory and Community both had a chance of returning, and Suburgatory may actually have its call reversed if Warner Brothers is successful in finding it a new home.  As for The Mindy Project and Two and a Half Men, I was wrong.  The Mindy Project should have been cancelled based on its ratings, but FOX stuck with it.  For Two and a Half Men, it was the second year in a row I incorrectly predicted a cancellation.  Third times the charm?

Overall success rate for comedies: 11/14 (79%)


I predicted the following dramas would be renewed:
Grey’s Anatomy
Nashville
CSI
Hawaii Five-0
The Carrie Diaries
Supernatural
Bones
The Following
Chicago Fire
Success rate: 8/9 (89%)

Analysis: Once again, one show away from a perfect score!  Nasvhille was one of the final shows to be renewed, and it easily could have gone either way.  The rest of the shows that were renewed were easy calls, except perhaps for The Following, which has plummeted in year two.  Still, FOX renewed it very early on.  Looking back though, I wonder why in the world I predicted a renewal for The Carrie Diaries.  I re-read my prediction, and my 75% chance of renewal rating doesn’t seem to make much sense.  I said the show would do 0.2’s and 0.3’s, and was hesitant if that was enough.  Still, I was wrong and am left wondering why I thought the low-rated series could cheat death twice.

I predicted the following dramas would be cancelled:
Revenge
The Good Wife
Beauty and the Beast
Law and Order: SVU
Revolution
Success rate: 1/5 (20%)

Analysis: And here is where it got ugly.  The only drama I correctly predicted would be cancelled was Revolution, and even that was a question mark heading into last week.  All four of the dramas I incorrectly predicted the fate of; however, probably deserved to be cancelled.  Revenge and The Good Wife are both low-rated on Sunday nights, Beauty and the Beast was one of the biggest surprise renewals of the season, and SVU was thisclose to being canned.  In my defense, like Raising Hope, I was close to being correct for two dramas, and here’s why:

Law and Order SVU

“NBC may give the show a short 13 episode final season, but a full 22 episode sixteenth season seems rather unlikely.”

I predicted it could be renewed with this sentence, yet still gave it a 49% chance of renewal (meaning cancellation).  NBC has yet to state the episode order for Law and Order: SVU, so I may at least get a portion of my prediction correct.

The Good Wife

 “If CBS finds one or two new hit dramas, The Good Wife will finally be out the door.”

CBS didn’t find any new drama hits this season, meaning they needed The Good Wife for at least one more season.  With a slew of new dramas ordered, this has to be the end of the line for the critically acclaimed drama.

The thing that stings most is that this is the second year in a row I predicted a cancellation for The Good Wife and SVU (just like Two and a Half Men).  Still, I predicted cancellations for both, so I’ll accept my defeat and move on.

Overall success rate for dramas: 9/14 (64%)


Overall success rate for comedies and dramas:  20/28 (71%)

Analysis: Well, I tried!  I correctly predicted the fate of 20 shows, which isn’t all too bad, especially when a few of them were on the bubble prior to the season beginning.  I’ll be left wondering why I made some choices (the renewal of The Carrie Diaries, the cancellation of SVU, etc.), but there is nothing I can do to change it.  If I have learned anything from doing this over the past two seasons, its that predicting the fate of series’ before the season begins is pretty tough.  A series could suddenly take a huge drop in ratings (The Following) or hang around due to critical acclaim (The Good Wife).  In this day and age, when DVR’s are quickly gaining popularity and networks are forced to re-evaluate their decisions, predictions will become even more difficult.  I’m going to give it another try this upcoming season, and hopefully improve upon my prediction rate.  I may even include more than 28 shows, although I haven’t decided just yet.  This is definitely one of my more favorite features to publish each year, so if anyone has suggestions on how it could be improved, I’m listening!

If you want to check out my full predictions, click here for the comedies, or here for the dramas.

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Which Returning Dramas Will Return Next Season?

Which returning dramas will not make it to another season?  For my predictions, check out the article!

Returning this year on the drama side are a whopping 32 dramas.  The network tally is as follows, CBS leads with ten, CW is at seven, ABC and NBC are tied at third, each with six returning dramas, and FOX is at the bottom with only three. As of September 2013, two of those dramas knows where they stand after this season: Nikita, which is heading into its final season and Glee, which earned its two season renewal a few months ago  That means 31 dramas still have fates to be determined.  Unlike the comedy edition, I will be looking at only three dramas per network (two for FOX). Continue reading

Chances of New Fall Dramas: NBC

There are 12 new dramas premiering this fall, essentially in line with the number of new comedies.  Networks are hoping to find the next hit drama, which they have had trouble with the past few seasons.

Today: Will NBC find success or is the next Do No Harm on the way?  We take a look at each new drama and the chances of it becoming a success.

Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):

Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) – One of the first cancellations of the season

Timeslot: Mondays at 10/9c
Lead in: The Voice
Competition: Castle and Hostages

Analysis: Perhaps the most anticipated new drama of the season, The Blacklist has high expectations in the post-Voice timeslot.  Revolution premiered to a whopping 4.1 A18-49 last season, holding onto 86% of the audience from The Voice.  I do not expect The Blacklist to premiere that high, since I also do not expect The Voice to premiere at a 4.7 A18-49 again.  The timeslot is key here.  Hold enough audience from The Voice and its a success, hold onto just half (even at a 2.0) and risk cancellation.  The series is being promoted heavily and James Spader is a pretty familiar face.  The debut is going to be strong (I am thinking a 3.0) and fall in the coming weeks.  The difference between The Blacklist and Revolution is the competition they faced when they premiered.  Revolution premiered against all repeat competition, while The Blacklist will face the debut of Hostages and season premiere of Castle on the night of its premiere.  Either way, this will likely be the biggest new drama of the season.
Chance of Success: Very likely

Timeslot: Fridays at 10/9c
Lead in: Grimm
Competition: 20/20 and Blue Bloods

Analysis: It took two seasons, but I think NBC has finally found a companion to Grimm.  Dracula has the familiar character and with a new spin here, I think it could really do well.  As I said, Grimm is the perfect show for Dracula.  The audiences will likely skew similar, providing NBC the perfect one two punch they need to take hold of the night.  Competition in the ten o’clock hour is extremely light: a news-magazine (20/20) and an old-skewing cop drama (Blue Bloods).  All Dracula needs to do is win the hour, which it could do with a 1.3 A18-49, and a renewal should come easily.  Finally, the debut close to Halloween, on October 25th, should work as an advantage to the premiere of Dracula.  People will be ready for the holiday, and may have increased interest in the show.  Regardless of how it premieres, I think a 1.3-1.5 is likely for a season average and it will be back for a second season.
Chance of Success: Likely

Timeslot: Wednesdays at 10/9c
Lead in: Law and Order: SVU
Competition: CSI and Nashville

Analysis: With a major portion of advertising used to promote The Blacklist and The Michael J. Fox Show, Ironside has been pushed to the back-burner.  The series is familiar for some viewers, as it is a remake of the original 60’s series.  For others, its another police procedural, which always seem to find an audience.  The hour is not as competitive as it used to be, so there is a chance Ironside is able to carve out its own audience.  Law and Order: SVU is way past its prime, but it is still able to provide as a stable lead in for new series, as seen last fall with Chicago Fire.  If you recall, Chicago Fire was expected to be one of the first cancellations last season – and now it will air in the prime post-Voice timeslot.  Unfortunately for Ironside, I do not see NBC finding two hits in the same timeslot in back to back years.  The show hasn’t had enough of a grab, and with few promotions, I doubt most audiences will even know it is there.  Ironside may just be one of the first drama cancellations.
Chance of Success: Poor

Chances of New Fall Dramas: CBS/FOX

There are 12 new dramas premiering this fall, essentially in line with the number of new comedies.  Networks are hoping to find the next hit drama, which they have had trouble with the past few seasons.

Today: Will CBS find success or is the next Golden Boy on the way?  What about FOX, will it find success or Mob Doctor?  We take a look at each new drama and the chances of it becoming a success.
*Since CBS and FOX each have only one new fall drama, the posts have been combined.

Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):

Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) – One of the first cancellations of the season

Timeslot: Mondays at 10/9c
Lead in: Mom
Competition: The Blacklist and Castle

Analysis: Reviews have not been as positive as I thought they would have been at this point.  Those reviews, however, will not deter me from believing Hostages will be a solid option for CBS.  While the lead in is effect is hard to predict here, I can not see the lineup doing much worse than this past year.  The competition is on the lighter side, with a solid, yet declining Castle and other timeslot freshman, The Blacklist.  Given The Blacklist has the lead in of The Voice, one can assume it will be the number one show in the timeslot.  Hostages will remain neck and neck with Castle for most of the fall season, but Hostages could have a couple weeks where it beats Castle by a few tenths.  I expect Hostages to top previous timeslot occupant, Hawaii Five-O, and I would have to believe that is a success by CBS’ standards.
Chance of Success: Okay

Timeslot: Mondays at 9/8c
Lead in: Bones
Competition: 2 Broke Girls, Beauty and the Beast, Dancing with the Stars, Mom, and The Voice

Analysis: Similar to last season, Sleepy Hollow is the only new show on the FOX fall lineup.  Unlike last season, however, FOX has more replacements lined up in case Sleepy Hollow emerges slow out of the gate (The Mob Doctor).  FOX has been giving the show a strong push in the advertising department, but I do not think that is enough to get viewers to watch.  The show is a bit “different” and “different” shows have not worked out all too well for FOX.  Bones is still a strong series, but it did not give The Mob Doctor a boost and if it did not give ‘Doctor‘ a boost, I do not see it happening here.  My guess is Sleepy Hollow is cancelled a few weeks into the season (episode four or five), Bones stays put in its 8 o’clock home, and FOX shifts Almost Human into the 9 o’clock timeslot.
Chance of Success: Very poor

Chances of New Fall Dramas: The CW

There are 12 new dramas premiering this fall, essentially in line with the number of new comedies.  Networks are hoping to find the next hit drama, which they have had trouble with the past few seasons.

Today: Will The CW find success or is the next Cult on the way?  We take a look at each new drama and the chances of it becoming a success.

Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):

Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) – One of the first cancellations of the season

Timeslot: Tuesdays at 8/7c
Lead in: Local programming
Competition: Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D., The Biggest Loser, Brooklyn Nine Nine, Dads, and NCIS

Analysis: A spin-off of the CW’s number one series, The Vampire Diaries, sounds like a sure thing.  The Originals is taking some familiar faces from the original series and planting them in the spinoff.  The competition should not be much of a problem for The Originals, given a lot of it is going to skew male.  The CW is giving the show a sneak-peak behind The Vampire Diaries, giving the premiere a strong start.  Even if the series only brings over half of the audience from The Vampire Diaries, it will likely score the show a renewal.
Chance of Success: Very likely

Reign_logoTimeslot: Thursdays at 9/8c
Lead in: The Vampire Diaries
Competition: The Crazy OnesGlee, Grey’s Anatomy, The Michael J. Fox ShowSean Saves the World, and Two and a Half Men

Analysis: Each season the CW introduces a new series that just does not fit the mold of the network programming goal.  This season, the show to get the title is Reign (Cult would be last seasons).  I personally do not see many people, let alone younger audiences, flocking to a series set way back when.  Younger audience, specifically the adults between 18 and 34, want a series set in the present.  The lead in of The Vampire Diaries sounds great until the data shows not a single post-Diaries series has been a hit for the network.  Of all the shows that have been given the prime timeslot on the network, I would pick Reign to produce the worst overall numbers.
Chance of Success: Poor

Timeslot: Wednesdays at 9/8c
Lead in: Arrow
Competition: Criminal Minds, Law and Order: Special Victims Unit, Modern Family, Super Fun Night, and The X Factor

Analysis: As with Reign, the concept of The Tomorrow People is a bit out there.  Unlike Reign, however, The Tomorrow People will fit like a glove out of its Arrow lead in.  I had originally placed The Tomorrow People in the post-Arrow timeslot in numerous ‘fantasy schedules’, so even though I do not plan on watching either series, I am excited for the placement.  I do not believe The Tomorrow People will out-rate last seasons timeslot occupant, Supernatural, but somewhere between 0.5-0.6 seems acceptable.  An 0.5 or 0.6 would give it retention of around 70%, which has been good enough for shows in the post-Vampire Diaries timeslot.  Consider this a solid renewal for next season.
Chance of Success: Likely