Returning Comedies and Dramas Results: 2014-15

In September 2014, I went ahead and predicted which returning comedies and dramas would be renewed for the 2014-15 television season.  This was the third time I attempted to predict network decisions prior to the start of the television season.

For the results, I split each show into one of four categories: those I predicted would be renewed (for comedies and dramas), and those I predicted would be cancelled (again, for comedies and dramas).  If a show is colored in GREEN, the series was renewed.  If a show is colored in RED; the series was cancelled.

I predicted the following comedies would be renewed:
2 Broke Girls
Brooklyn Nine Nine
Last Man Standing
Mike and Molly
Modern Family
Mom
The Goldbergs
The Middle
The Millers

Success rate: 8/9 (89%)

Analysis: Just like last season, I finished 8/9 in the comedy renewal category.  If only it were not for the sudden cancellation of The Millers a few episodes into its second season!

I predicted the following comedies would be cancelled:
New Girl
The Mindy Project
Success rate: 1/2 (50%)

Analysis: The Mindy Project was officially cancelled by FOX, but there are rumors the series may return in a two season deal on Hulu.  Even if the pickup does occur, the series was technically cancelled by FOX.  As for New Girl, I figured a cancellation was not going to happen

Despite the ownership by 20th Century FOX, nothing says “keep New Girl on the air” – even its huge syndication deal on Netflix, TBS, and MTV.  I’ll probably be wrong with this prediction, but my gut continues to tell me New Girl is dunzo.

Overall success rate for comedies: 9/11 (82%)


I predicted the following dramas would be renewed:
Agents of SHIELD
Arrow
Bones
Blue Bloods
Castle
Chicago Fire
Chicago PD
Criminal Minds
CSI
Elementary
Grey’s Anatomy
Grimm
Hawaii Five-0
NCIS
NCIS: Los Angeles
Once Upon a Time
Person of Interest
Reign
Resurrection
Scandal
Sleepy Hollow
Supernatural
The 100
The Blacklist
The Following
The Good Wife
The Originals
The Vampire Diaries
Success rate: 26/28 (93%)

Analysis: Other than Resurrection and The Following meeting their demise, my predictions for renewals were not too far off from being correct.  I was a little hesitant to mark CSI as renewed, but since it is coming back for a two-hour wrap up movie, I consider next season the official end.  As a note, I originally predicted the fate of Hannibal (as renewed), although it never aired in the regular season so I removed it from the results.

What I said about The Following (after giving it a 50.1% chance of returning):

Throw in new leadership at FOX, and the fate of The Following is pretty murky.  This is one of the few shows that could very well go either way.  It’ll be close, but I think FOX sticks around for at least one more go-around.

I predicted the following dramas would be cancelled:
Hart of Dixie
Law and Order: SVU
Nashville
Revenge
The Mentalist
Success rate: 3/5 (20%)

Analysis: For the second year in a row, I really thought it was the end of the line for Law and Order: SVU.  Maybe it is time to stop predicting a cancellation?  I was also off about Nashville, which ABC seems to really love.

Overall success rate for dramas: 29/33 (88%)


Overall success rate for comedies and dramas:  38/44 (86%)

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Chances of New Series: 2014-15 Results

Over the course of television season, I predicted the fate of nearly every new series (I forgot all about Secrets and Lies).  After yet another television season, the results of my predictions are finally here!  If a show was cancelled, it is colored RED and if a show was renewed, it is colored GREEN.

Here is the scale I used throughout the season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series

For the results, I placed each series into the respective category I initially predicted it would fall in.  The Breakout and Hit categories were a prediction for renewal, while Weak and Bomb categories were a prediction for cancellation.  A Solid title was a prediction for a toss-up, although I did make a call in favor of renewal or cancellation.

I predicted the following series would be Breakouts:
The Flash
How to Get Away with Murder

Success rate: 2/2 (100%)


I predicted the following series would be Hits:
Black-ish
NCIS: New Orleans

Success rate: 2/2 (100%)


I predicted the following series would be Solid performers, but still be renewed (unless noted):
Agent Carter
American Crime (predicted cancellation)

Constantine
Cristela
CSI: Cyber
Gotham
iZombie
Marry Me
Madam Secretary
Stalker
The Odd Couple
Success rate: 6/11 (55%)


I predicted the following series would be Weak  performers:
A to Z
Allegiance
American Odyssey
Bad Judge
Battle Creek
Empire
Fresh off the Boat
Gracepoint
Jane the Virgin
Mulaney
Red Band Society
Scorpion
State of Affairs
The Last Man on Earth
The McCarthys
Success rate: 10/15 (67%)


I predicted the following series would Bomb:
Backstrom
Forever
Galavant
Manhattan Love Story
One Big Happy
Selfie
The Messengers
The Mysteries of Laura
Weird Loners
Success rate: 7/9 (78%)


Overall success rate: 27/39 (69%) (last season was 61%)

“State of Affairs”

Here is the NEW scale that will be used this season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series

State_of_Affairs_NBCQuick Premise: A CIA analyst briefs the president on the most critical issues facing the country.
Timeslot: Mondays at 10/9c
Lead in: The Voice
Competition: CastleNCIS: Los Angeles

Analysis: NBC is booting The Blacklist out of its timeslot in favor of State of Affairs, hoping it can replicate success. The competition is not all too rough, but with all three being a form of crime procedural, it’ll likely hurt State of Affairs just a tad.  NBC has been promoting State of Affairs for a few weeks now, and has been able to devote much of the promotion time for it.  Does advertising really correlate to success?  Probably not, although it is better than nothing.  I do not see State of Affairs being a Blacklist-type hit.  In fact, I think it will likely have a somewhat strong premiere (2.4) and then taper off as the weeks go on.  In either event, long term success seems doubtful.
Prediction: WEAK (2)

“Red Band Society” Returns After Two Weeks

red-band-society-titleAfter two weeks off the air, Red Band Society returned with 2.87 million viewers and 0.9 A18-49, down a tenth from its most recent episode.  Retention from Hell’s Kitchen was 81% among total viewers and 69% in the demo.  Only a handful of episodes left, and Red Band Society is off of FOX’s list of problems.

A new episode of Stalker brought in 7.28 million viewers and 1.5 A18-49, even with last weeks prelims, but down a tenth from finals.  What makes this performance look a bit better than last week was the slightly increased retention from Criminal Minds (78% this week vs. 70% last week).  Still, CBS can do much better in the timeslot.

mysteries of lauraOlder-skewing The Mysteries of Laura continued to bring in the viewers, scoring 7.76 million viewers and 1.2 A18-49, even with last week.  NBC already gave the show a full season order, so it will be interesting to see what happens with a second season.  We will, of course, have to wait until May for that answer.

“Marry Me” and “Selfie” Fall Again

marry meWeek four of Marry Me took an ugly turn without the help of a new episode of The Voice as a lead in.  Last nights episode brought in a series-low 4.98 million viewers and 1.3 A18-49, down two tenths week-to-week.  Retention from a recap show of The Voice was 53% among total viewers and 59% in the demo – yikes. This is clearly not what NBC had hoped for with Marry Me.  I would like to point out that NBC ran ads for a doomsday episode of Marry Me, in which it touted it as Tuesday Doomsday (or Doomsday Tuesday).  In either event, it appears NBC got its wish.  Any guesses as to what will takeover the timeslot next?

ABC aired two new episodes of Selfie last night, which leads me to believe the series is heading towards cancellation (but ABC denies that is the case).  The first episode, at 8 o’clock, notched 3.94 million viewers and 1.0 A18-49, with the second episode totaling 3.42 million viewers and 0.9 A18-49.  Both numbers are pretty terrible, so I expect ABC to air all 13 episodes and then call it quits (thankfully).

MC_Junior_LogoOn the season premiere side of things, FOX finally had some good news to report.  Masterchef Junior, which aired its first season on Friday nights, came to Tuesday with 5.69 million viewers and 1.8 A18-49.  Those numbers easily top what Utopia had been doing, and lifted the rest of the night too (New Girl – 1.6 / The Mindy Project – 1.3).  There was less competition than the typical Tuesday night, so expect some loses in the coming weeks.  If I had to make a prediction, Masterchef Junior will settle in at 1.4-1.6 A18-49.  Still, this is quite a promising second season start for the competition series.

The Flash, Forever, and NCIS: New Orleans were pre-empted last night.