In September 2014, I went ahead and predicted which returning comedies and dramas would be renewed for the 2014-15 television season. This was the third time I attempted to predict network decisions prior to the start of the television season.
For the results, I split each show into one of four categories: those I predicted would be renewed (for comedies and dramas), and those I predicted would be cancelled (again, for comedies and dramas). If a show is colored in GREEN, the series was renewed. If a show is colored in RED; the series was cancelled.
I predicted the following comedies would be renewed:
2 Broke Girls
Brooklyn Nine Nine
Last Man Standing
Mike and Molly
Success rate: 8/9 (89%)
Analysis: Just like last season, I finished 8/9 in the comedy renewal category. If only it were not for the sudden cancellation of The Millers a few episodes into its second season!
I predicted the following comedies would be cancelled:
The Mindy Project
Success rate: 1/2 (50%)
Analysis: The Mindy Project was officially cancelled by FOX, but there are rumors the series may return in a two season deal on Hulu. Even if the pickup does occur, the series was technically cancelled by FOX. As for New Girl, I figured a cancellation was not going to happen
Despite the ownership by 20th Century FOX, nothing says “keep New Girl on the air” – even its huge syndication deal on Netflix, TBS, and MTV. I’ll probably be wrong with this prediction, but my gut continues to tell me New Girl is dunzo.
Overall success rate for comedies: 9/11 (82%)
I predicted the following dramas would be renewed:
Agents of SHIELD
NCIS: Los Angeles
Once Upon a Time
Person of Interest
The Good Wife
The Vampire Diaries
Success rate: 26/28 (93%)
Analysis: Other than Resurrection and The Following meeting their demise, my predictions for renewals were not too far off from being correct. I was a little hesitant to mark CSI as renewed, but since it is coming back for a two-hour wrap up movie, I consider next season the official end. As a note, I originally predicted the fate of Hannibal (as renewed), although it never aired in the regular season so I removed it from the results.
What I said about The Following (after giving it a 50.1% chance of returning):
Throw in new leadership at FOX, and the fate of The Following is pretty murky. This is one of the few shows that could very well go either way. It’ll be close, but I think FOX sticks around for at least one more go-around.
I predicted the following dramas would be cancelled:
Hart of Dixie
Law and Order: SVU
Success rate: 3/5 (20%)
Analysis: For the second year in a row, I really thought it was the end of the line for Law and Order: SVU. Maybe it is time to stop predicting a cancellation? I was also off about Nashville, which ABC seems to really love.
Overall success rate for dramas: 29/33 (88%)
Overall success rate for comedies and dramas: 38/44 (86%)