Unforgettable: How Will It Do?

CBS’ Unforgettable, which was cancelled and later revived, returns to the airwaves over a year after its last new episode aired.

The following information regarding Unforgettable is for the premiere only.  My prediction for how the series will premiere, among total viewers and in the 18-49 demographic, is after the information presented below.

History: Unforgettable premiered back on September 20, 2011 to a strong 14.09 million viewers and a 2.9 A18-49, retention of a respectable 84% (viewers) and 81% (demo) from NCIS: Los Angeles.  The show shed only 14% of its A18-49 audience in week two, but retention fell to only 69%.  The numbers continued to fall and eventually rebounded by the time the finale rolled around, nabbing 10.84 million viewers and 2.0 A18-49.  A few days after the finale aired, CBS cancelled the series after only one season.  Reports swirled that TNT and Lifetime were both interested in the series, but nothing ever came to fruition.  A little over two months after CBS cancelled Unforgettable, the network announced they were reviving the series and bringing it back as a summer option.  A few cast changes and a year and two months later, Unforgettable finally returns to the airwaves.

Timeslot: Sundays at 9/8c
New Competition: Bar Rescue (Spike), Dexter (Showtime), Drop Dead Diva (Lifetime), Food Network Star (Food Network), Hollywood Exes (VH1), Keeping up with the Kardashians(E!), The Killing (AMC), MLB Baseball: Cardinals at Braves (ESPN), Princesses: Long Island (Bravo), Sister Wives (TLC), Snapped: Killer Couples (Oxygen), True Blood (HBO), and Whodunnit? (ABC)
Analysis: Busy, busy, busy timeslot!  A whopping thirteen series air in the Sunday timeslot, including HBO’s number one series, True Blood, Showtime’s number one series, Dexter, Spike’s number one series, Bar Rescue, and E!’s number one series, Keeping up with the Kardashians.  Overall, that is a lot of number one series to face, especially since they all attract a different audience.  Unforgettable has a tough timeslot ahead, but if it can find yet another unique audience in the timeslot (and with it’s older skew, it should be able to) the show will succeed against the competition.

Lead In: Big Brother
Analysis: Aside from newbie Under the Dome, Big Brother is CBS’ number one summer series.  Giving Unforgettable the strong lead in should no doubt help the series more than it helped short-lived 3 last summer.  The most recent Sunday episode of Big Brother was watched by 6.91 million viewers and 2.5 A18-49, the largest rating of the season.  It remains to be seen if the show can put up those same strong ratings this Sunday, but no doubt it should be able to do over a 2.0 A18-49.

What does all of this mean?
How will Unforgettable do?
Unforgettable presents yet another unique situation: a series that was cancelled, revived, and then scheduled to air on new new night, time, and season.  If anything is going to work against Unforgettable, I would say its the switch from airing in the fall  to summer season.  CBS’ advertising has been noticeable thus far, with a lot of their ad’s focusing on Poppy Montgomery and a drama airing in the repeat-filled season.  I think the series will get off to a good start, especially with its lead in.  With all of the information above, I believe Unforgettable will premiere to 8.00 million viewers and 1.5 A18-49.  To arrive at those numbers, I took the retention from the season one finale (67%) and gave Big Brother a 2.2 A18-49 for its upcoming episode, giving retention of 68%.  With an older skew on most CBS dramas, I suspect Unforgettable will grow in total viewers from Big Brother.  Considering how low most dramas have been this summer, a 1.5 A18-49 would be a solid return for Unforgettable.

How do you think Unforgettable will premiere? Sound off below!

Next show to be featured: Capture (CW; series premiere)

Who Do You Think You Are: How Will It Do?

Nearly a year after NBC cancelled the series, TLC is debuting an all new season of Who Do You Think You Are?.  Will it come back strong?

The following information regarding Who Do You Think You Are? is for the premiere only.  My prediction for how the series will premiere, among total viewers and in the 18-49 demographic, is after the information presented below.

History: Who Do You Think You Are? premiered on March 5, 2010 to 6.85 million viewers and 1.6 A18-49, which was good enough for second place in its timeslot (one tenth behind Ghost Whisperer).  The show ran for an additional two seasons (all three on Friday nights) and aired its final NBC episode on May 18, 2012.  That episode nabbed 5.54 million viewers and 1.0 A18-49 – a second place finish in its timeslot once again.  NBC officially cancelled Who Do You Think You Are? on May 13, 2012, five days before its final episode aired on the network.  In May 2013, a year after its cancellation, TLC unexpectedly announced it would begin airing an all new season in July 2013.

Timeslot: Tuesdays at 9/8c
New Competition: America’s Got Talent (NBC), Covert Affairs (USA), Dance Moms (Lifetime), Deadliest Catch (Discovery), Extreme Weight Loss (ABC), Perfect Score (CW), Rizzoli & Isles (TNT), So You Think You Can Dance (FOX), Storage Wars: New York (A&E), Twisted (ABC Family)
Analysis: The Tuesday nine o’clock timeslot is a busy one.  Four broadcast networks will air new programming, with the number one summer series (America’s Got Talent) giving Who Do You Think You Are? the most competition.  TNT’s number one drama, Rizzoli & Isles, airs in the timeslot, as does Dance Moms.  Male-skewing Deadliest Catch shouldn’t be too much trouble and neither will low-rated Perfect Score, which debuted last week.

Lead In: Long Island Medium (repeat)
Analysis: Long Island Medium finished its fourth season in late June with 1.99 million viewers and 0.6 A18-49, even with most of its episodes.  The lead in for Who Do You Think You Are? is not new, however, which means its lead in will not be as strong.  I’d say a conservative guess for its lead in numbers would be 800,000 viewers and 0.2-0.3 A18-49, about half of how a new episode performs.

What does all of this mean?
How will Who Do You Think You Are do?
Similar to last weeks Whose Line is it Anyway post, a prediction for Who Do You Think You Are? is not an easy one.  The show has been off the airwaves for a year, and moving to a cable network makes the prediction a bit harder.  The most recent example of a reality series moving networks is America’s Most Wanted.  The series aired its final weekly episode on FOX (Saturday, June 18, 2011) to 3.88 million viewers and 1.1 A18-49.  The premiere on Lifetime (Friday, December 2, 2011) scored 914,000 viewers and 0.3 A18-49 – a loss of 76% of its total viewer audience and 73% of the demographic audience from the final FOX episode, which aired five months prior.  I would say its fair to estimate Who Do You Think You Are? will lose the same amount of its audience in a broadcast to cable move.  With all of the information above, I believe Who Do You Think You Are? will premiere to 1.10 million viewers and 0.3 A18-49.  Those numbers would give the premiere a loss of 80% of its total viewer audience and 70% of the demographic audience from its last episode that aired on NBC a year ago.

How do you think Who Do You Think You Are will premiere? Sound off below!

Next show to be featured: Unforgettable (CBS; first episode during the summer)

Whose Line is it Anyway: How Will It Do?

After airing regular season finales in May, The CW has been in repeat mode.  That (finally) changes with the network premiere of Whose Line is it Anyway?.

PLUS: Perfect Score (series premiere)

The following information regarding Whose Line is it Anyway? is for the premiere only.  My prediction for how the series will premiere, among total viewers and in the 18-49 demographic, is after the information presented below.

History: Whose Line is it Anyway? previously aired on ABC for six seasons (173 episodes) before the network cancelled the series due to lower ratings.  After its cancellation, ABC Family aired the series for another two seasons (46 episodes), with episodes already filmed by ABC.  When all was said and done, Whose Line is it Anyway? aired for eight seasons (219 episodes), airing from August 1998 until December 2007.  Earlier this year, The CW announced it ordered a new version of the series for ten episodes.  The only change to the series is Aisha Tyler as host, since Drew Carey is busy with The Price is Right.

Timeslot: Tuesdays at 8/7c
New Competition: Extreme Weight Loss (ABC), MLB All Star Game (FOX), Pretty Little Liars (ABC Family), Weird or What? (Syfy)
Analysis: Unlike past series’ featured, Whose Line is it Anyway? has very little competition in the hour.  Extreme Weight Loss is low rated, Pretty Little Liars has slumped to new lows this summer, and I had never even heard of Weird or What? until researching this post.  The only major competition is the MLB All Star Game, which amassed 10.9 million viewers and 3.1 A18-49, 3% higher than the previous year.

Lead In: Local programming
Analysis: Shows that air in the 8 o’clock hour on The CW typically perform better than the 9 o’clock shows, partially because of the strength of local programming.  It is hard to gauge how Whose Line is it Anyway? will perform based simply on what local programs are airing across the country.

What does all of this mean?
How will Whose Line is it Anyway do?
This may be one of the most difficult series’ to predict this summer.  The show has a familiar name, but with it airing on The CW, can it gain any traction?  Oh Sit, which did not have the built-in name, was able to premiere with 1.23 million viewers and 0.5 A18-49 on Wednesday, August 12, 2012.  Anything less than those numbers would be somewhat disappointing.  In addition, I do not believe the revival will debut terribly low, like with last seasons The Catalina (0.3) and The Next: Fame Is at Your Doorstep (0.3).  With all of the information above, I believe Whose Line is it Anyway? will premiere to 1.45 million viewers and 0.6 A18-49.  The prediction may be high, but I think if any show can do be a success for the network, that show is Whose Line is it Anyway?

Bonus Feature: Perfect Score
Since Perfect Score premieres directly after Whose Line is it Anyway?, I thought it would be pointless to have to make an entire new post with predictions of its lead in.  The only accurate information in predicting its premiere number would be the timeslot (Tuesdays at 9/8c).  Based off of the recent CW summer debuts (The Catalina and The Next, as mentioned above) I think Perfect Score will also debut in that range.  It is very likely Perfect Score will have a solid lead in, but since we do not know for sure, I am going to take a pessimistic route on this one.  With the limited information I have, I believe Perfect Score will premiere to 850,000 viewers and 0.3 A18-49, in line with last summers CW debuts.

How do you think Whose Line is it Anyway? and Perfect Score will premiere? Sound off below!

Next show to be featured: Who Do You Think You Are? (TLC debut)

Hollywood Game Night: How Will It Do?

The fifth new series to debut on NBC (and fourth reality series) this summer is NBC’s Jane Lynch-hosted game show Hollywood Game Night.

The following information regarding Hollywood Game Night is for the premiere only.  My prediction for how the series will premiere, among total viewers and in the 18-49 demographic, is after the information presented below.

Today’s edition is abbreviated due to time constraints.  I apologize for the change.

Timeslot: Thursdays at 10/9c
New Competition: Four Weddings (TLC), Graceland (NBC), Rookie Blue (ABC), Sharknado (Syfy) Sullivan & Son (TBS), Swamp People (History), Wilfred (FX)
Analysis: There is a bit of competition in the hour, but nearly all of it is scripted, unlike Hollywood Game Night.  Since I believe there is little audience overlap, the competition should not be a problem.  If anything, the later hour, especially for a game show, may hurt the ratings.

Lead In: The Winner Is
Analysis: Airing behind The Voice nearly a month ago, the most recent episode totaled 6.68 million viewers and 1.9 A18-49, retention of about 52% in both measures.  It is safe to say the show will not bring those ratings to its timeslot, with maybe about half of the audience carrying over.  I assume The Winner Is will premiere in its new timeslot with 4.25-4.75 million viewers and 1.3-1.4 A18-49.

What does all of this mean?
How will Hollywood Game Night do?
I am surprised at how positive some of the reviews for the new series have been.  The concept is a bit unique, which could help Hollywood Game Night stand out from the crowd.  The lead in is certainly not the best, but at least NBC is not leaving it on an island struggling to survive all by itself.  With all of the information above, I believe Hollywood Game Night will premiere to 4.50 million viewers and 1.4 A18-49.  Those numbers would put it in close range of how Camp premiered and well ahead of Crossing Lines and Siberia.  Given the show is a game show, it can have ratings like this and most likely make it to another season.

How do you think Hollywood Game Night will premiere?  Sound off below!

Next show to be featured: Whose Line is it Anyway?

Camp: How Will It Do?

NBC has yet another summer series premiere (the fourth for the network).  Will Camp finally end NBC’s streak of bad luck during the rough summer season?

The following information regarding Camp is for the premiere only.  My prediction for how the series will premiere, among total viewers and in the 18-49 demographic, is after the information presented below.

Timeslot: Wednesdays at 10/9c
New Competition: Blood and Oil (Discovery), The Bridge (FX), The Challenge: Rivals II (MTV), Couples Therapy (VH1), The Exes (TV Land), Futurama (Comedy Central), Hot in Cleveland (TV Land), I’m Having Their Baby (Oxygen), The Lookout (ABC), Paranormal Witness (Syfy), The Soup (E!), Top Shot All Stars (History)
Analysis: Similar to the analysis for The Bridge (see here) I had no idea the hour was filled with this much competition.  The hour does seem to have more female options and since I think Camp will skew heavily female, it could hurt Camp just a bit.

Lead In: America’s Got Talent
Analysis: Camp will benefit from the lead in of NBC’s number one series.  America’s Got Talent, which aired its new episodes on Tuesdays up until this point, has averaged 10.85 million viewers and 2.8 A18-49 through five episodes this season.  The hit series’ most recent airing (July 2nd) averaged 9.56 million viewers and 2.4 A18-49, its lowest rating of the season.  I would guess the season low is due to the holiday, but I could be wrong on that front.  With the move to Wednesdays, I cannot see America’s Got Talent slipping below the 2.4 A18-49 threshold.  I am going to go with the average 2.8 A18-49 and say that is the number Camp will have as a lead in (especially since America’s Got Talent typically rises throughout the broadcast).

Recent America’s Got Talent Lead Out: Love in the Wild (aired Tuesdays at 10/9c)
Analysis: NBC bumped up America’s Got Talent to the 9-11 timeslot on Tuesdays, thus Wednesdays are now home to the America’s Got Talent lead in.  Anyway, Love in the Wild was the only original series to air behind the hit reality series last season for more than a week.

Season two premiere (June 5, 2012, aired 9-11) – 4.76 million viewers, 1.6 A18-49
Lead in: 12.55 million viewers, 3.5 A18-49 (retention: 38% / 46%)

Season two finale (July 24, 2012) – 4.44 million viewers, 1.2 A18-49
Lead in: 10.43 million viewers, 2.7 A18-49 (retention: 43% / 44%)

Comparable date (July 10, 2012) – 5.03 million viewers, 1.2 A18-49
Lead in: 10.69 million viewers, 2.8 A18-49 (retention: 47% / 43%)

What does all of this mean?
How will Camp do?
NBC seems to be rather excited about Camp or they would not have given it the lead in of America’s Got Talent.  I believe the lead-in alone could help Camp get to a second season, if it can surpass the numbers Love in the Wild put up last season.  The premise is a bit odd, but what better series for the summer season than a show at a summer camp?  I will give NBC credit for tying the two together and not trying to premiere Camp during the regular season (imagine watching this in the summer).  With all of the information provided above, I believe Camp will premiere to 5.25 million viewers and 1.7 A18-49.  Going off the average from America’s Got Talent, it would give Camp retention of 48% (total viewers) and 61% (demo).  I think the series will skew younger than its lead in and do just a smudge better than last years Love in the Wild.  Camp will undoubtedly fall in the coming weeks, but a strong premiere (especially with a strong lead in) is needed.

How do you think Camp will premiere?  Sound off below!

Next show to be featured: Hollywood Game Night (NBC)