“Marry Me” and “Selfie” Fall Again

marry meWeek four of Marry Me took an ugly turn without the help of a new episode of The Voice as a lead in.  Last nights episode brought in a series-low 4.98 million viewers and 1.3 A18-49, down two tenths week-to-week.  Retention from a recap show of The Voice was 53% among total viewers and 59% in the demo – yikes. This is clearly not what NBC had hoped for with Marry Me.  I would like to point out that NBC ran ads for a doomsday episode of Marry Me, in which it touted it as Tuesday Doomsday (or Doomsday Tuesday).  In either event, it appears NBC got its wish.  Any guesses as to what will takeover the timeslot next?

ABC aired two new episodes of Selfie last night, which leads me to believe the series is heading towards cancellation (but ABC denies that is the case).  The first episode, at 8 o’clock, notched 3.94 million viewers and 1.0 A18-49, with the second episode totaling 3.42 million viewers and 0.9 A18-49.  Both numbers are pretty terrible, so I expect ABC to air all 13 episodes and then call it quits (thankfully).

MC_Junior_LogoOn the season premiere side of things, FOX finally had some good news to report.  Masterchef Junior, which aired its first season on Friday nights, came to Tuesday with 5.69 million viewers and 1.8 A18-49.  Those numbers easily top what Utopia had been doing, and lifted the rest of the night too (New Girl – 1.6 / The Mindy Project – 1.3).  There was less competition than the typical Tuesday night, so expect some loses in the coming weeks.  If I had to make a prediction, Masterchef Junior will settle in at 1.4-1.6 A18-49.  Still, this is quite a promising second season start for the competition series.

The Flash, Forever, and NCIS: New Orleans were pre-empted last night.

Everything Down – Tuesday Ratings

With added competition from game six of the World Series (despite being a 10-0 blowout), every new series was down from last week.

NCIS-New-Orleans-1-779x400The show that took the slightest hit this week was CBS’ NCIS: New Orleans. The third NCIS series scored 16.09 million viewers and 2.3 A18-49, down only a tenth from last week. Retention from the mothership was 92 percent in total viewers and 88 percent in the demo. Not bad, not bad at all.

A new episode of promising The Flash, which totaled 3.53 million viewers and 1.4 A18-49, also down a tenth from last week.  All in all, a very solid week four.

marry meWeek three of Marry Me dipped to 5.06 million viewers and 1.5 A18-49. Had these numbers been in any other timeslot, they would be solid. Behind The Voice, however, they are alarming. Retention was a terrible 45% among total viewers and 52% in the demo. If we looked at the 830 to 9 o’clock retention, I’m sure it slips even further.

Rounding out the new series was ABC’s Forever. It’s latest episode was down a tenth from last week, nothing 4.95 million viewers and 1.1 A18-49. Retention from Agents of Shield was an alarming 59% in the demo (while growing in total viewers). The incompatibility of these two show is quite obvious, yet ABC doesn’t make any changes.

Tuesday Daily Ratings

It was a busy night for new series last night, so lets get started.

marry meWeek two of NBC’s Marry Me took an expected drop, down to 5.61 million viewers and 1.8 18-49, down five tenths from last weeks debut.  It looked as if NBC hoped Marry Me would re-start their comedy lineup, but that appears unlikely.  Retention from The Voice was a pitiful 47% among total viewers and 55% in the demo (although it was undoubtedly lower when you look at 830 to 9 average, as compared to the entire hour) .  Two weeks in, and already below a 2.0 demo.  I think NBC can do better.

selfieABC had some good news and bad news last night.  Week four of Selfie ticked up to 3.82 million viewers and 1.1 A18-49, up a tenth from last night.  No, the numbers are not good, but at least it stopped dropping, right?  The same could not be said for Manhattan Love Story, which dropped even more this week, down to 2.62 million viewers and 0.7 A18-49.  These numbers are just plain ugly.  Look for a cancellation announcement sooner rather than later.  FYI, both are pre-empted next week for Halloween specials.

Rounding out the night on ABC was a new episode of Forever.  The latest episode brought in 4.95 million viewers and 1.2 A18-49, up a tenth from last weeks low.  Once again, Forever grew in total viewers from Agents of Shield, while demonstrating retention of 75 percent in the demographic.  Maybe a better lead in would help Forever?

Week three of CW’s The Flash took a bigger drop than last week, down to 3.59 million viewers and 1.5 A18-49.  Despite dropping another two tenths, this is still huge for The CW.

NCIS-New-Orleans-1-779x400Finally, reliable CBS and its latest NCIS franchise, NCIS: New Orleans continued to put up modest, but solid, numbers.  Last nights episode totaled 16.13 million viewers and 2.4 A18-49, up two tenths from last weeks episode, despite added competition from the World Series.  NCIS: New Orleans had one of its best retentions yet, 94 percent in total viewers and 100 percent in the demo.  When is that full season order coming CBS?

Updated with finals 10/23 at 12:35am.

“Marry Me” OK in Debut

marry meThe series premiere of Marry Me kicked off with 7.54 million viewers and 2.3 A18-49. That is an OK start for the comedy, which benefited from the lead in of The Voice. Retention from The Voice was an 61% among total viewers and 68% in the demo.  Given most shows drop 15-20 percent in week two, I think this is just an OK start for Marry Me.

Meanwhile, week two of The Flash took a small 11% week two drop, notching 4.27 million viewers and 1.7 A18-49. Don’t be surprised for a full season order announcement within the coming week. These numbers are the real deal for The CW.

manhattan-love-story-abcOver at ABC, the Tuesday comedy block appears to be ending soon. Week three of Selfie dropped another 16% to 3.44 million viewers and 1.0 A18-49. It’s lead out, Manhattan Love Story stabilized with a weak 2.87 million viewers and 0.9 A18-49. ABC has to fix this hour, and quick.

Also on ABC was a new episode of Forever, which brought in 4.81 million viewers and 1.1 A18-49. That number represents another 15% drop for the 10 o’clock drama. Looks like ABC needs an all new Tuesday night lineup…again.

NCIS-New-Orleans-1-779x400Finally, NCIS: New Orleans scored 16.14 million viewers and 2.2 A18-49. The show dropped a tenth in the demo week-to-week (along with its lead in), while picking up some viewers (about 400,000).

Updated with finals 10/15 at 910pm.

Predictions for New Comedies: NBC

Here is the NEW scale that will be used this season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series

a-to-zQuick Premise: Two polar-opposites are matched on an online dating website, and begin falling for each other.
Timeslot: Thursdays at 930/830c
Lead in: Bad Judge
Competition: GracepointReignScandal,
Thursday Night Football

Analysis: Hey, it’s that girl who played ‘The Mother’ on How I Met Your Mother!  Yes, other than that, not much else separates this sitcom from past romantic sitcoms on television.  The lead in, Bad Judge, is unproven and the competition is tough.  Scandal is one of the biggest series on television right now, and that will likely continue.  Given the huge draw of Scandal in the women demographics, it will take a lot of potential audience away from A to Z.  Thursday Night Football is unlikely to have any crossover with A to Z, but more females are watching football these days, so its possible more audience is drawn away.  There is simply too much working against A to Z for it to move forward.
Prediction: WEAK (2)

bad judgeQuick Premise: A partying judge tries to change her ways when she sends the parents of an 8 year old boy to prison.
Timeslot: Thursdays at 9/8c
Lead in: The Biggest Loser
Competition: GracepointReignScandal
Thursday Night Football

Analysis: The plot is pretty blah, but star Kate Walsh is a bit of a draw (at least to some viewers).  She actually has some pretty solid comedic chops, especially after spending a lot of television time on Grey’s Anatomy and spinoff Private Practice.  The Biggest Loser is a shell of its former self, yet still puts up 1.7-2.0 in the A18-49 demo.  Whether or not The Biggest Loser can perform that well remains to be seen; however, it’ll be a good lead in for Bad Judge.  Like A to Z, competition for Bad Judge is rough.  Scandal will drain a majority of the female audience, and males will be watching Thursday Night Football.
Prediction: WEAK (2)

marry meQuick Premise: After a number of marriage proposals gone wrong, a couple decides to wait on marriage.
Timeslot: Tuesdays at 9/8c
Lead in: The Voice
Competition: Agents of SHIELDNCIS: New Orleans, New GirlSupernatural

Analysis: Created by David Caspe, and starring Casey Wilson, Marry Me contains two pieces of ABC’s former comedy, Happy Endings (which, despite some love, was low-rated and not all that great).  Comparisons will likely be made between the two for at least the first few weeks of the television season.  Marry Me has a big advantage in The Voice.  No lead in on NBC is stronger than The Voice, so NBC has a lot of confidence in Marry Me to give it this launch pad.  The competition for Marry Me is fairly light.  New Girl is the biggest option for younger females in the timeslot, and its way (way) down from previous seasons.  Agents of SHIELD is targeted at males, and NCIS: New Orleans for older audiences.  Marry Me can, essentially, carve out its own audience in the half hour.  In any other timeslot, chances would be slim, but NBC programmed Marry Me in the perfect timeslot for success.
Prediction: SOLID (3)

* For what its worth, I would have ranked A to Z as “solid” if NBC placed it following Marry Me.

Coming Friday: Returning Comedies