Returning Comedies and Dramas Results: 2014-15

In September 2014, I went ahead and predicted which returning comedies and dramas would be renewed for the 2014-15 television season.  This was the third time I attempted to predict network decisions prior to the start of the television season.

For the results, I split each show into one of four categories: those I predicted would be renewed (for comedies and dramas), and those I predicted would be cancelled (again, for comedies and dramas).  If a show is colored in GREEN, the series was renewed.  If a show is colored in RED; the series was cancelled.

I predicted the following comedies would be renewed:
2 Broke Girls
Brooklyn Nine Nine
Last Man Standing
Mike and Molly
Modern Family
Mom
The Goldbergs
The Middle
The Millers

Success rate: 8/9 (89%)

Analysis: Just like last season, I finished 8/9 in the comedy renewal category.  If only it were not for the sudden cancellation of The Millers a few episodes into its second season!

I predicted the following comedies would be cancelled:
New Girl
The Mindy Project
Success rate: 1/2 (50%)

Analysis: The Mindy Project was officially cancelled by FOX, but there are rumors the series may return in a two season deal on Hulu.  Even if the pickup does occur, the series was technically cancelled by FOX.  As for New Girl, I figured a cancellation was not going to happen

Despite the ownership by 20th Century FOX, nothing says “keep New Girl on the air” – even its huge syndication deal on Netflix, TBS, and MTV.  I’ll probably be wrong with this prediction, but my gut continues to tell me New Girl is dunzo.

Overall success rate for comedies: 9/11 (82%)


I predicted the following dramas would be renewed:
Agents of SHIELD
Arrow
Bones
Blue Bloods
Castle
Chicago Fire
Chicago PD
Criminal Minds
CSI
Elementary
Grey’s Anatomy
Grimm
Hawaii Five-0
NCIS
NCIS: Los Angeles
Once Upon a Time
Person of Interest
Reign
Resurrection
Scandal
Sleepy Hollow
Supernatural
The 100
The Blacklist
The Following
The Good Wife
The Originals
The Vampire Diaries
Success rate: 26/28 (93%)

Analysis: Other than Resurrection and The Following meeting their demise, my predictions for renewals were not too far off from being correct.  I was a little hesitant to mark CSI as renewed, but since it is coming back for a two-hour wrap up movie, I consider next season the official end.  As a note, I originally predicted the fate of Hannibal (as renewed), although it never aired in the regular season so I removed it from the results.

What I said about The Following (after giving it a 50.1% chance of returning):

Throw in new leadership at FOX, and the fate of The Following is pretty murky.  This is one of the few shows that could very well go either way.  It’ll be close, but I think FOX sticks around for at least one more go-around.

I predicted the following dramas would be cancelled:
Hart of Dixie
Law and Order: SVU
Nashville
Revenge
The Mentalist
Success rate: 3/5 (20%)

Analysis: For the second year in a row, I really thought it was the end of the line for Law and Order: SVU.  Maybe it is time to stop predicting a cancellation?  I was also off about Nashville, which ABC seems to really love.

Overall success rate for dramas: 29/33 (88%)


Overall success rate for comedies and dramas:  38/44 (86%)

Chances of New Series: 2014-15 Results

Over the course of television season, I predicted the fate of nearly every new series (I forgot all about Secrets and Lies).  After yet another television season, the results of my predictions are finally here!  If a show was cancelled, it is colored RED and if a show was renewed, it is colored GREEN.

Here is the scale I used throughout the season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series

For the results, I placed each series into the respective category I initially predicted it would fall in.  The Breakout and Hit categories were a prediction for renewal, while Weak and Bomb categories were a prediction for cancellation.  A Solid title was a prediction for a toss-up, although I did make a call in favor of renewal or cancellation.

I predicted the following series would be Breakouts:
The Flash
How to Get Away with Murder

Success rate: 2/2 (100%)


I predicted the following series would be Hits:
Black-ish
NCIS: New Orleans

Success rate: 2/2 (100%)


I predicted the following series would be Solid performers, but still be renewed (unless noted):
Agent Carter
American Crime (predicted cancellation)

Constantine
Cristela
CSI: Cyber
Gotham
iZombie
Marry Me
Madam Secretary
Stalker
The Odd Couple
Success rate: 6/11 (55%)


I predicted the following series would be Weak  performers:
A to Z
Allegiance
American Odyssey
Bad Judge
Battle Creek
Empire
Fresh off the Boat
Gracepoint
Jane the Virgin
Mulaney
Red Band Society
Scorpion
State of Affairs
The Last Man on Earth
The McCarthys
Success rate: 10/15 (67%)


I predicted the following series would Bomb:
Backstrom
Forever
Galavant
Manhattan Love Story
One Big Happy
Selfie
The Messengers
The Mysteries of Laura
Weird Loners
Success rate: 7/9 (78%)


Overall success rate: 27/39 (69%) (last season was 61%)

Chances of New Series: Early March 2015

Here is the NEW scale that will be used this season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series

american crimeQuick Premise: The first season of this anthology crime drama follows a racially charged murder and trial.
Timeslot: Thursdays at 10/9c
Lead in: Scandal
Competition: Allegiance and Elementary

Analysis: There is no better place on the ABC schedule for American Crime than airing behind Scandal.  A 2.8-3.2 lead in each week will do wonders for the show and give it ample support (at least for a premiere).  ABC is stressing the fact the series from John Ridley (12 Years a Slave) and stars Felicity Huffman and to an extent, Timothy Hutton.  Gracepoint, which debuted earlier this season, also featured a murder of a young boy and cancelled after its low-rated run.  That makes this a real toss-up in terms of how American Crime will perform.  There is no chance it touches the heights of How to Get Away with Murder, but I do not see a big bomb here either.
Prediction: SOLID (3) – but cancelled after one season

battle creekQuick Premise: A police detective and FBI agent work cases together in Michigan.
Timeslot: Sundays at 10/9c
Lead in: The Good Wife
Competition: Dateline NBCOdyssey (effective 4/1) and Revenge

Analysis: From David Shore (House) and Vince Gilligan (Breaking Bad), CBS is hoping for a stronger Sunday night lineup with Battle Creek.  There certainly won’t be an immense amount of lead in support with The Good Wife, but its higher-income (and older) viewers will certainly be of help.  CBS viewers tend to reject the cookie-cutter cop shows, and CBS has been stressing this is not the average cop show.  It will be interesting to see if the average CBS viewer watches this series, or the average CBS Sunday night viewer tunes in.  In the end, airing on Sundays at 10 makes this feel like a burn-off.
Prediction: WEAK (2)

last man on earthQuick Premise: The last man on Earth searches for others.
Timeslot: Sundays at 930/830c
Lead in: Family Guy
Competition: AD: Before the Bible (effective 4/1), The Good WifeSecrets & Lies

Analysis: Reviews for The Last Man on Earth have been surprisingly positive, with a solid score of 77 on Metacritic.  The debut for the new single-camera comedy is one hour, following a new episode of Brooklyn Nine-Nine, before shifting to 930, following Family Guy, next week.  As of late, the Sunday night lineup on FOX has struggled, so it has me a bit concerned as to how well The Last Man on Earth can perform.  In addition, the entire premise of the entire series has me worried.  Can this really be sustainable as a weekly comedic series or is it better off as a movie?  I think The Last Man on Earth will be sampled, but long term success seems doubtful.
Prediction: WEAK (2)

csi cyberQuick Premise: The fourth series in the CSI franchise takes a look at cyber crimes.
Timeslot: Wednesdays at 10/9c
Lead in: Criminal Minds
Competition: Chicago P.D. and Nashville

 Analysis: Just a few weeks ago, CBS aired what could be the final episode of the CSI mothership, and now we get a new series in the franchise!  CSI: Cyber mixes up the basic CSI formula in that the cases begin on the internet and are then solved in the real world.  The built-in name should at least give CSI: Cyber an initial boost, but whether that boost is large enough remains to be seen.  The timeslot competition is certainly not difficult, although Chicago P.D. could take away some of the audience.  Stalker really struggled in this timeslot in the fall, so the bar for CSI: Cyber is not too high.  I think CSI: Cyber should do at least three to four tenths better and any timeslot improvement is a positive.  CSI: Cyber won’t be a huge hit, but it’ll be enough to come back for another season in the fall.
Prediction: SOLID (3) – renewed for second season

Chances of New Series: February 2015

Here is the NEW scale that will be used this season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series

allegianceQuick Premise: A rookie CIA analyst learns his family his part of a Russian spy group.
Timeslot: Thursdays at 10/9c
Lead in: The Blacklist
Competition: ElementaryHow to Get Away with Murder (until 2/26) / American Crime (beginning 3/5)

Analysis: NBC is hoping for big things with its BlacklistAllegiance Thursday night lineup.  Unfortunately, this feels like another misfire from NBC this season.  First off, are viewers of The Blacklist really going to stick around for another dark drama?  It’s almost as if something lighter is needed for the Allegiance lead in.  Secondly, The Blacklist as unproven as a tentpole hour, especially against the number one veteran drama on television in Scandal.  Will there be many viewers of The Blacklist to funnel interest into Allegiance?  Third, Allegiance will have to go up against the top 10 o’clock drama, How to Get Away with Murder for the first few weeks.  That in itself is tough to stand up against, but it may be possible.  Finally, Allegiance appears to be the broadcast version of The Americans (on FX).  With more standards to follow, will viewers really attach on to a water-downed version when they barely watch The Americans?  NBC certainly tried with its lineup here, but I think they will be in for a rough midseason.
Prediction: WEAK (2)

fresh off the boatQuick Premise: Set in the 1990s, a Taiwanese family moves to Orlando.
Timeslot: Tuesdays at 8/7c
Lead in: Local programming
Competition: The FlashHell’s KitchenNCISParks and Recreation (until 2/17), The Voice

Analysis: On the heels of the success of Black-ish, ABC is looking for lightning to strike twice with Fresh off the Boat.  Had the ABC Wednesday comedy block been weaker, there is no doubt Fresh off the Boat would have earned a spot on the night.  Luckily for ABC, the comedy block is gelling, so there is no reason to mess with it.  That mean Fresh off the Boat will have to try and survive for itself on Tuesdays.  Fresh off the Boat will, however, debut as part of the Wednesday night lineup, with one episode at 830 (following The Middle) and another at 930 (following Modern Family).  The timeslot previews should certainly help Fresh off the Boat get started, but once its on Tuesdays, it will be another story.  ABC has had a lot of trouble on Tuesdays, and I don’t see their fortunes changing with Fresh off the Boat.  The timeslot competition is all over the place with an older-skewing drama, reality, and comedy – probably enough to hurt the comedy.  Fresh off the Boat has some time to find an audience before The Voice returns, however, I think it will be too late for the newest ABC comedy at that point.
Prediction: WEAK (2)

the odd coupleQuick Premise: A remake of the 1970s series, where two opposite men become roommates.
Timeslot: Thursdays at 830/730c
Lead in: The Big Bang Theory
Competition: American Idol (until 3/19), Bones (beginning 3/26), Grey’s AnatomyThe SlapThe Vampire Diaries

Analysis: After the failures of Studio 60 on the Sunset StripMr. Sunshine, and Go On, Matthew Perry stars in his first multi-camera comedy since Friends ended in 2004 (eleven years ago!).  The Odd Couple, a remake of the popular 1970s television series, follows the number one comedy on television, The Big Bang Theory.  The lead in itself should be enough to get The Odd Couple off the ground.  Past post-Big Bang lead outs (Shit My Dad Says, How to Be a GentlemanRob!, and The Millers) all flamed out quickly, so to break the streak would mean a lot for CBS (and Matthew Perry).  Competition is fairly light, with American Idol and Grey’s Anatomy currently averaging low to mid 2.0 demos, giving The Odd Couple room to be successful in the timeslot.  Whether or not this new version of The Odd Couple is funny remains to be seen and is essential to success.  I really do not have much to go on here, and past history is telling me this is a bomb, but my gut is telling me otherwise.  I do believe CBS may have something special with The Odd Couple.
Prediction: SOLID (3)

“Red Band Society” Returns After Two Weeks

red-band-society-titleAfter two weeks off the air, Red Band Society returned with 2.87 million viewers and 0.9 A18-49, down a tenth from its most recent episode.  Retention from Hell’s Kitchen was 81% among total viewers and 69% in the demo.  Only a handful of episodes left, and Red Band Society is off of FOX’s list of problems.

A new episode of Stalker brought in 7.28 million viewers and 1.5 A18-49, even with last weeks prelims, but down a tenth from finals.  What makes this performance look a bit better than last week was the slightly increased retention from Criminal Minds (78% this week vs. 70% last week).  Still, CBS can do much better in the timeslot.

mysteries of lauraOlder-skewing The Mysteries of Laura continued to bring in the viewers, scoring 7.76 million viewers and 1.2 A18-49, even with last week.  NBC already gave the show a full season order, so it will be interesting to see what happens with a second season.  We will, of course, have to wait until May for that answer.