Chances of New Fall Comedies: ABC

There are 14 new comedies premiering this fall, nearly matching the 15 comedies that will return during the entire 2013-2014 television season.  Networks are ordering a number of comedies, hoping to find the next The Big Bang Theory    .

Today: Will ABC find success or is the next How to Live with Your Parents on the way?  We take a look at each new comedy and the chances of it becoming a success.

Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):

Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer

Likely (79-60) – A strong performer

Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer

Poor (39-20) – A weak performer

Very Poor (19-0) – One of the first cancellations of the season

Timeslot: Wednesdays at 830/730c
Lead in: The Middle
Competition: Arrow, Revolution, Survivor, The X Factor

Analysis: The competition for Back in the Game is probably the easiest for any new comedy this fall.  Revolution is going to face possible major declines (similar to Smash), declining Survivor and The X Factor become less and less of a worry each season, and Arrow may be the CW’s number one series, but the audiences are completely different.  The Middle is a very solid performer (2.3-2.6 A18-49) and should give Back in the Game enough of a lead in.  I do not see Back in the Game becoming a hit, but a middling performer seems very possible.  I could also see Back in the Game as ABC’s number one new fall comedy.
Chances of Success: Okay

Timeslot: Tuesdays at 9/8c
Lead in: Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
Competition: NCIS: LA, New Girl, Supernatural, The Voice

Analysis: If any comedy is the hardest to gauge, I believe it is The Goldbergs.  With a new series lead in, one would have to guess how Agents of SHIELD will perform to figure out how The Goldbergs is going to perform.  I do not see ‘Agents‘ becoming the hit some are expecting, which makes the chances of The Goldbergs hitting that much smaller.  ABC is putting a lot of advertising muscle into the family comedy, so I do expect it to premiere solidly (as most ABC series tend to do).  As the weeks progress, however, the show will likely fall in the same capacity of its lead in.
Chance of Success: Okay

Timeslot: Wednesdays at 930/830c
Lead in: Modern Family
Competition: Criminal Minds, Law and Order: SVU, The Tomorrow People, The X Factor

Analysis: Super Fun Night has been trashed by most critics, despite star Rebel Wilson’s likability.  It has the post-Modern Family timeslot, but that has pretty much been a death-sentence for most new comedies.  Mr. Sunshine, Happy Endings, Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23, How to Live with Your Parents all held less than 60% of the large lead in, which eventually lead to their cancellations.  One of the most recent occupants, Suburgatory, failed to make a dent in the timeslot as well.  Super Fun Night lacks any connection to its lead in, which leads me to believe it will not have much of a chance, no matter how much people love Rebel Wilson.
Chance of Success: Poor

Timeslot: Tuesdays at 930/830c
Lead in: The Goldbergs
Competition: The Mindy Project, NCIS: LA, Supernatural, The Voice

Analysis: Similar to The Goldbergs, Trophy Wife is certainly hard to gauge.  Tuesday nights are all new for the network and I believe the success for the entire night relies on Agents of SHIELD.  Advertising for Trophy Wife has been soft, as the network seems to be focused on ‘Agent‘ and The Goldbergs.  One factor that works in favor of Trophy Wife is the weak comedy competition from The Mindy Project.  The Voice and NCIS: LA are not weak competition, however, it is possible Trophy Wife could find its own audience here, but I am not expecting it to happen.
Chance of Success: Very poor

Best and Worst of the 2013 Upfronts

The best and worst of this years broadcast network upfronts.  Which moves do you like the best and which did you find head-scratching   Read my thoughts and then post your own .

I simply chose three ‘best’ and three ‘worst’ moves, in order to not get too in-depth and leave some additional moves for you, the reader.  Perhaps the most interesting theme: Tuesdays, which received three spots on the list (one ‘best’, two ‘worst’).

NBC Thursday Lineup
I was hoping NBC would move their comedy lineup to a new night, but I like the choices they went with and believe they can make some inroads this upcoming season.  Parks and Recreation will most likely be the weak-link on the night, but I can see it doing its usual 1.4-1.5 demo and against The Big Bang Theory, that is solid.  Welcome to the Family will have to fight to save its own life and based off of the clips, I believe it can do well.  Sean Saves the World is not the anchor I’d go with on the night, but I’m assuming NBC was afraid of a potential The Big Bang Theory move to 9.  At this point, I’d hope they move The Michael J. Fox Show to 9 and in turn put the multi-camera comedy (the only one on the night) at 930.  Placing Parenthood at 10 is also a smart move, especially in a timeslot NBC has had trouble with since ER left the airwaves.

Revolution to Wednesdays at 8
I applaud NBC to moving Revolution away from its The Voice lead-in, but to the lead off spot?  Wednesdays at 8 are not the weakest of timeslots and having NBC dump it on the night, in a lead off spot, does not spell good news for the show.  If I had to guess, NBC will have a Smash 2.0 on its hands.  NBC has to hope the show does die right away or they will have a huge loss on their plates once again.

Comedy Expansion on CBS
I was against the expansion all season – until CBS ordered a slew of new comedies for the 2013-2014 season.  When that occurred, it was all but assured they would create a two hour comedy block on Thursdays.  There has been a lot of hate for their new lineup, but I’m a fan of it.  The Big Bang Theory was not going to move to 9, no matter how much some of you wanted it to.  The show is a terrific performer in the lead off timeslot and will continue to do that in the new season.  The Millers will be a good companion for ‘Bang’ as the series looks legitimately funny – something that has yet to happen for a post-Bang series.  Crazy Ones should get some initial sampling with the star power, whether it holds will remain to be seen.  CBS ends the comedy night with long-running Two and a Half Men, which should give a solid 2.5-3.0 number at 930.

FOX Tuesdays at 8
FOX was the second network to present their lineup, so the lineup of Dads and Brooklyn Nine Nine isn’t entirely FOX’s fault.  The competition of total viewer leader NCIS, likely male-skewing and highly anticipated S.H.I.E.L.D., and reality stalwarts The Biggest Loser (fall) and The Voice (midseason) will likely drain any chance FOX has of making in-roads in the hour.  On top of that, the trailers for both shows are terrible – and this is from a fan of Seth MacFarlane (Dads).  My guess is one of the two shows will be the first cancellations of the season and before you know it, a new series will be moving into the timeslot.

Chicago Fire post-Voice
Perhaps one of smartest moves this season was NBC giving post-The Voice timeslot to  Chicago Fire.  The drama has been steady nearly all season and was one of the glimmers of hope for the struggling-NBC.  With numbers in range of Revolution (without the help of The Voice) it’s a smart move for NBC to give Chicago Fire the lead in of The Voice.  The show is a procedural and can likely grow with the help of NBC’s number one series.  NBC has to be hoping that the show doesn’t take the route of Subugatory this season and decline with a bigger lead in.

ABC’s 9 to 11 Tuesday Lineup
Tuesdays have always been a struggle for ABC, so you have to give them props for going all out this season with big changes.  S.H.I.E.L.D. is likely to be male-skewing, which is out of ABC’s wheelhouse, and that leads into two new comedies (The Goldbergs and Trophy Wife).  The two comedies will have to face the competition of The Voice and the more likely female-skew of the comedies won’t be good for them (especially with the male-skewing lead in).  Rounding out the night is Lucky 7, which is unproven and will go against CBS’ hit drama Person of Interest, as well as NBC’s growing Chicago Fire.  A new series is unlikely to gain traction in the hour, meaning it could also be one of the first cancellations of the season.  There is, however, a chance the lineup becomes a hit, and in that case, good for ABC!

Well, which moves do you think were the best and worst this season?  Sound off below!

CW’s Fall 2013 Schedule

The CW’s fall 2013 schedule is below .

MONDAY
8 – Hart of Dixie (new night)
9 – Beauty and the Beast (new night)
Analysis: I’m actually a big fan of this placement on the schedule.  Not only was it one of the few lineups I accurately predicted, but it should be a huge improvement over 90210 and Gossip Girl.  It won’t do huge numbers (especially against The Voice) but it should do well.

TUESDAY
8 – The Originals (new)
9 – Supernatural (new night)
Analysis: I would have gone with Supernatural into The Originals, however, I can see why the CW went the other way.  I’ve seen some arguments that The Originals will have to face SHIELD, but I don’t see any audience overlap there and if it anything were to share the SHIELD audience, it’d be Supernatural.  The CW will make some big year to year gains here as well.

WEDNESDAY
8 – Arrow
9 – The Tomorrow People (new)
Analysis: Another night I accurately predicted, wahoo!  Anyway, kudos to the CW for giving a new series a chance behind Arrow this season.  The Tomorrow People should be able to find an audience on a busy Wednesday night.  I don’t think it’ll be as strong as Supernatural, but it should do 0.6-0.7.

THURSDAY
8 – The Vampire Diaries
9 – Reign (new)
Analysis: The CW has tried shows that on paper seem like a great fit for The Vampire Diaries lead out spot.  This time, they’re going with something completely different, so will the result be different too?  I actually like this pairing and can’t wait to see how they perform together.

FRIDAY
8 – The Carrie Diaries (new night)
9 – America’s Next Top Model
Analysis: I think most predicted The Carrie Diaries would move to Fridays given its surprise renewal, so there is little surprise on its timeslot.  It should do better than Nikita and with America’s Next Top Model taking nearly a year long break, hopefully the numbers bounce back a bit.

CBS’ Fall 2013 Schedule

CBS’ fall 2013 schedule is below .

CBS has finally done it, they have expanded their comedy block on Thursday to two hours.  I didn’t expect it to happen nearly all season, but after they ordered a slew of new comedies, it really became little surprise.  CBS played to some of its strengths and made a couple of needed moves (like Hawaii Five-0).  Here it is, folks:

MONDAY
8 – How I Met Your Mother
830 – We are Men (new)
9 – 2 Broke Girls
930 – Mom (new)
10 – Hostages (new)
Analysis: I’m quite surprised to see Mom not end up in the 830 timeslot, as the rumor has been for quite some time now.  My biggest pet peeve is mutli-camera comedies scheduled with single-camera comedies, but all four major networks did it this season.  2 Broke Girls will remain in its home, as expected, leading into Mom, which I expect to debut well.  Kudos to CBS for getting Hawaii Five-0 out of the timeslot.

TUESDAY
8 – NCIS
9 – NCIS: Los Angeles
10 – Person of Interest (new night and time)
Analysis: Probably my favorite night on the network, even though I don’t watch a single series.  10 o’clock has been a lot of trouble for CBS and instead of trying the usual new series, they moved a returning one: Person of Interest.  Give CBS expanded the comedy block on Thursday, and their love for Elementary, this move isn’t surprising.  I think it’ll also give the night a boost overall.

WEDNESDAY
8 – Survivor
9 – Criminal Minds
10 – CSI
Analysis: With big moves on other nights (Monday and Thursday) it is little surprise they did not touch Wednesdays.  They still get very solid results despite the competition and that success should continue once again this season.

THURSDAY
8 – The Big Bang Theory
830 – The Millers (new)
9 – Crazy Ones (new)
930 – Two and a Half Men (new time)
10 – Elementary
Analysis: Some thought The Big Bang Theory was going to move nights, but it wasn’t ever going to happen. The show does very (very) well, so why mess with success?  I do like the fact CBS didn’t waste the big lead in of The Big Bang Theory on Two and a Half Men once again and is instead giving new series The Millers a chance to shine.  Crazy Ones is the big question on the night, as its a single-camera sandwiched between three other multi-camera comedies.  Elementary will round out the night.

FRIDAY
8 – Undercover Boss
9 – Hawaii Five-0 (new night and time)
10 – Blue Bloods
Analysis: I like that Friday night bookends Undercover Boss and Blue Bloods remain where they are.  Hawaii Five-0 should fit like a glove on the night and put up okay numbers.  The show wasn’t working on Monday and the only logical new home was Friday night.  Blue Bloods will simply skew ancient.

SUNDAY
7 – 60 Minutes
8 – The Amazing Race
9 – The Good Wife
10 – The Mentalist
Analysis: As with Wednesday, with big changes on other nights, Sundays were left alone.  I’m not all to surprised since CBS is in love with The Good Wife.  I’m guessing CBS will ride out the night for another season and then go with some big changes in 2014-2015.

ABC’s 2013 Fall Schedule

It’s a new day, which means we have another new fall schedule.  To see ABC’s all new lineup for fall 2013, simply click on their logo on the left.

The theme of ABC?  Fill the holes you have, leave everything else where it is right now.  The only show to find a new timeslot is Friday-bound The Neighbors.  My analysis for each night follow the schedule for that night.

MONDAY
8 – Dancing with the Stars
10 – Castle
Analysis: I figured ABC would keep these two intact, although I really wanted them to take advantage of the situation and put something new at 10.  Either way, at least ABC has a chance of winning the 10 o’clock timeslot again.

TUESDAY
8 – Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (new)
9 – The Goldbergs (new)
930 – Trophy Wife (new)
10 – Lucky 7 (new)
Analysis: At least ABC went with a complete revamp on the night that badly needed it.  S.H.I.E.L.D. should  at least get a huge sampling and that could potentially hurt NCIS over on CBS.  I don’t like the attempt at a comedy block attempt part two, but they should at least have a stable lead in this time around.  Lucky 7 has a very limited premise so I don’t expect all that much to happen there.

WEDNESDAY
8 – The Middle
830 – Back in the Game (new)
9 – Modern Family
930 – Super Fun Night (new)
10 – Nashville
Analysis: ABC is going to try and take advantage of its nice lead ins of The Middle and Modern Family once again this season.  I don’t think Back in the Game or Super Fun Night really fit the theme of family comedies, but I could be wrong here.  With Rebel Wilson’s rising star power, you can’t blame ABC for wanting to put her new series after its biggest comedy.  No surprise ABC is sticking with Nashville at 10, especially with a new comedy right before it.

THURSDAY
8 – Once Upon a Time in Wonderland (new)
9 – Grey’s Anatomy
10 – Scandal
Analysis: We should have all guessed that a new series was going to inherit the 8 o’clock timeslot once again.  The thing that is different this time is they went with a built in name (Once Upon a Time) and then went the female-skewing route.  It could work to ABC’s advantage this time.  Absolutely no surprise to see Grey’s Anatomy and Scandal working together again.

FRIDAY
8 – Last Man Standing
830 – The Neighbors (new night)
9 – Shark Tank
10 – 20/20
Analysis: The Neighbors had been rumored to take the 830 timeslot, so there is little surprise there.  I still wish ABC would have paired Last Man Standing with another multi-camera comedy.  Shark Tank should continue to dominate the night and its pairing with 20/20 will help the show continue its long run.

SUNDAY
7 – America’s Funniest Home Videos
8 – Once Upon a Time
9 – Revenge
10 – Betrayal (new)
Analysis: Many were calling for a complete revamp on the night, but I never saw ABC really wanting to do those big changes.  Once Upon a Time is way down from the beginning of the season (as is Revenge) but both (well at least ‘Once’) still put up okay numbers.  I don’t have much hope for Betrayal in the timeslot.