Chances of New Fall Dramas: ABC

There are 12 new dramas premiering this fall, essentially in line with the number of new comedies.  Networks are hoping to find the next hit drama, which they have had trouble with the past few seasons.

Today: Will ABC find success or is the next 666 Park Avenue on the way?  We take a look at each new drama and the chances of it becoming a success.

Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):

Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) – One of the first cancellations of the season

Timeslot: Sundays at 10/9c
Lead in: Revenge
Competition: The Mentalist and NBC Sunday Night Football

Analysis: If any new fall drama has been ignored more than any other series, I would say Betrayal is that show.  The show has not been at the center of any media attention and has practically been ignored by the network.  The timeslot is unfavorable, as ABC has not had luck with it since the days of Brothers and Sisters.  If this were last season, I may have given the show a better chance to succeed.  However, Revenge is a shell of its former self, and I do not see it going over a 2.0 A18-49 much this season.  The show will have to face football, but I do not see that playing much of a part in a female-skewing drama.  Either way, I predict Betrayal will be one of the first cancellations of the season.
Chance of Success: Very poor

Timeslot: Tuesdays at 10/9c
Lead in: Trophy Wife
Competition: Chicago Fire and Person of Interest

Analysis: Oh ABC.  When will you learn?  On top of Betrayal possibly earning the first cancellation of the season, there Lucky 7 in the same position.  The networks have tried the lottery-winning series before and they have all been failures after a sole season.  Even if the series does hit, can the concept really last past one season?  Not only is the concept bad, but the timeslot and competition are pretty fierce.  ABC’s all new Tuesday lineup is built upon Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. and if that fails, the entire night will too.  Trophy Wife looks funny, but it will not work well with Lucky 7.  In addition, Chicago Fire, NBC’s only scripted bright spot last season, gains the lead in of The Voice and Person of Interest looks to stop the trouble CBS has had with the timeslot.  I see both shows doing quite well in the hour, leaving little audience for Lucky 7.
Chance of Success: Very poor

Timeslot: Tuesdays at 8/7c
Lead in: Local programming
Competition: The Biggest Loser, Brooklyn Nine Nine, Dads, NCIS, and The Originals

Analysis: Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. is the most buzzed and talked about new series of the fall.  Whether that buzz translates into viewers remains to be seen.  Most years, the “buzzy” show starts strong and then fizzles as the season progresses.  I see the big premiere and big drop off happening for Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. as well.  The Avengers is one of the highest-grossing movies of all time, but I am not buying that they will sit down and watch a series similar to it for 22 weeks.  NCIS is the most-watched show in the timeslot, and ‘Agents‘ may put a dent in the series, but I see NCIS still wining the timeslot.  ‘Agents‘ will most likely be the number one new drama for the network (see their other dramas as to why), however, it will not be the big series some are thinking.
Chance of Success: Okay

Timeslot: Thursdays at 8/7c
Lead in: Local programming
Competition: The Big Bang Theory, Parks and Recreation, The Millers, Welcome to the Family, and The Vampire Diaries

Analysis: ABC’s Thursday 8 o’clock timeslot is a rough one for new dramas: FlashForward, The Deep EndMy Generation, Charlie’s Angels, Missing, Last Resort, and Zero Hour were all cancelled after only one season.  Will ABC finally have luck with Once Upon a Time in Wonderland?  My guess is no.  Once Upon a Time surprised many back in 2011 when it debuted, as it was predicted to be the first cancellation by numerous publications.  The spinoff could have the same luck, but with tougher competition, I will not be holding my breath.  It also does not help that the original series fell hard in the second part of its most recent season, as it suggests viewers may be growing tired of the fantasy drama.  ABC will no doubt air the entire 13 episode season, since it already has a replacement in waiting, the question is what will happen next: a second season, an all new location, or cancellation?  I think cancellation is the most viable option, especially since Once Upon a Time will most likely continue to fall and ABC will want to reduce its reliance on the series.
Chance of Success: Poor

Which Returning Comedies Will Return Next Season?

Which returning comedies will not make it to another season?  For my predictions, check out the article!

There are a total of 15 comedies returning to the broadcast networks this season.  ABC and CBS each have five, FOX has three, and NBC has a only two.  As of July 2013, one of those comedies knows where it stands after this season: How I Met Your Mother, which is heading into its final season.  That means 14 comedies still have fates to be determined.  Take a look at the situation for each of those 14 comedy series’ and their chances of returning beyond this season.

For the 2012 Predictions, Click Here

ABC’s Friday night comedy will once again be anchored by Last Man Standing, which held its own this past season, averaging close to 8 million viewers.  Unless a major collapse occurs, the show should be safe for a fourth season.  ABC does not own the series (20th Century FOX) but I do not see ABC cancelling one of the strongest Friday night series because of their lack of ownership.  Even with year-to-year losses likely to happen, it will remain one of the strongest scripted programs on the night, barring any major surprises.
Chances of Returning: 85%

ABC’s underrated, fan-favorite, The Middle, has successfully lead-off the Wednesday night comedy block for the past three seasons and heads back to that same timeslot this season.  very stable since moving to 8 o’clock, averaging over 8 million viewers in each of those seasons.  If any show has remained remarkably stable, that show is The Middle.  Unless the comedy sees a dramatic fall this upcoming season, it will return to the Wednesday 8/7c timeslot once again next year.
Chances of Returning: 100%

The number two comedy in all of television, Modern Family experienced small year-to-year declines this past season.  I would expect those declines to continue, but unless any of the new comedies are breakouts, it will remain the number two comedy.  I do not expect syndication to help the series this season.  If syndication does help the series, I do not think we will see any bumps until the following season.  Either way, there is no chance Modern Family is ending anytime soon.
Chances of Returning: 100%

To be honest, I was surprised to even hear The Neighbors would be returning for another season.  The show was the lowest-rated in ABC’s Wednesday night comedy block and went as low as a 1.4 A18-49.  With the show moving to Fridays (leading out of Last Man Standing) I can see the show losing even more of its already small audience.  Since one of the network comedies will have to make room for a new comedy the following season, I do not see The Neighbors advancing past a short thirteen episode second season.
Chances of Returning: 30%

If any show surprised me more this past season, it was Suburgatory.  In its freshman season, the show became a breakout hit, easily filling the bridge timeslot between The Middle and Modern Family.  When ABC announced it was getting the post-Modern Family timeslot I am sure nearly everyone predicted large year-to-year gains.  Instead, the show collapsed and fell to series lows.  In fact, Suburgatory flirted with cancellation up until ABC upfronts.  The network then announced Suburgatory would become a mid-season filler, losing its fall timeslot.  If ABC’s new comedies hit, Suburgatory is going to get the short end of the stick.  How quickly its fate changed!
Chances of Returning: 49%

Many pounced on CBS for moving 2 Broke Girls to the Monday 9 o’clock timeslot prematurely.  The show fell hard season-to-season.  Unlike a few commentators, I believe some of the loses are due to the increased competition (The Voice).  There is no telling how Two and a Half Men would have fared in the timeslot, but 2 Broke Girls held up as well as could have been expected.  With three new shows joining the Monday night lineup, I think we could see an even 2 Broke Girls this season.  Even if the show suffers year-to-year declines once again, I do not see a situation where the show is cancelled.
Chances of Returning: 100%

Is any renewal discussion even needed for broadcast televisions number one scripted series, The Big Bang Theory?  If there is a discussion of any kind, it would have to be this: can the show grow again and top its series high (20 million viewers, 6.4 A18-49). In my opinion, the growth has stopped.  The Big Bang Theory has reached its peak and it will be downhill from here.  If the show were to see a new series high, however, I would not be in the least bit surprised.  After all, did anyone expect a 6.4 A18-49 demo this past season?
Chances of Returning: 100%

CBS’ new utility player is Mike & Molly, filling the void left by the now-cancelled Rules of Engagement.  The most recent season of Mike & Molly was the weakest yet, but it still held its own throughout the season.  I would say the 22 episode fourth season order was a vote of confidence from the network.  Even with another year-to-year decline, I cannot see CBS pulling the plug on Mike & Molly just yet, especially with older comedies still airing on the network.
Chances of Returning: 95%

Eleven seasons.  I am quite honestly surprised to see Two and a Half Men on the air, especially with all the behind-the-scenes drama the show has endured.  CBS is giving Two and a Half Men a new timeslot, Thursdays at 930/830c – its third one is as many years.  With the move to the last half hour in a two hour comedy block, it spells bad news to me.  The show is a shell of its former self, both creatively and ratings wise.  If CBS has a lot of luck with its new comedies, Two and a Half Men will likely get the short-end of the stick.  I predicted a cancellation last season, so I am going to predict the same, giving the show a slightly worse chance.
Chances of Returning: 15%

Similar to The Neighbors, I was shocked when FOX gave The Mindy Project a second season renewal, especially since it was two months before upfronts were announced.  The season finale posted a small 1.3 A18-49, holding only 60% of its lead in.  If any of the new FOX comedies hit, I cannot see the network sticking with low ratings for another season.  The reviews have been positive for the The Mindy Project, but that is about the only good thing the show has going for it.  Unless a dramatic uptick occurs in season two, Mindy is done.
Chances of Returning: 25%

After having the lead-in of Glee for a season, FOX assigned New Girl to be the tentpole of a new two hour comedy block on Tuesday nights.  The results were less than stellar, with the show falling dramatically from season one, pegging low 2.0 A18-49’s nearly all season – a far cry from the 4.0+ for its series premiere.  FOX experienced hefty drops on a large majority of its schedule, making the decision to renew New Girl an easy one.  As with last season, it is hard to picture FOX cancelling its number one non-animated comedy.
Chances of Returning: 100%

Even though Raising Hope will never be a hit comedy, it has been a reliable option for FOX since its debut.  Heading into its fourth season, Raising Hope is scheduled to move to its fourth different timeslot: Fridays at 9/8c.  I am a bit skeptical the move will ever happen, especially since its not scheduled to happen until November.  If anything, its a timeslot for the show while the network waits to see which of its new comedies will fail.  If the move to Friday does actually happen, I believe this could possibly be the final season of Raising Hope.  However, I am going to stay positive and say the show advances to a fifth season.
Chances of Returning: 51%

For the past two seasons, Community has cheated death.  The show squeaked out another last-minute renewal and with the fifth season debut, it will regain its creator, Dan Harmon.  Similar to season four, Community will once again take on a midseason role, filling in for wherever NBC may need the help.  Since the network has a slew of new comedies in the wings, Community is going to have post year-to-year gain to have any shot at a sixth season.  The show has been lucky before, but I think the luck is about to run out.
Chances of Returning: 5%

NBC’s highest rated comedy, Parks and Recreation, returns for full 22 episode sixth season.  The show finished its season with a respectable 1.6 A18-49, better than every other NBC comedy that week (excluding The Office).  This season, the show moves to one of the roughest timeslots in all of television: Thursdays at 8/7c, against The Big Bang Theory.  I believe ratings in the vicinity of Community (1.1-1.3) are to be expected.  Community made it this far with low ratings, so it would leave me to believe Parks and Recreation can get one additional season with those type of ratings.
Chances of Returning: 51%

Chances of New Fall Comedies: NBC

There are 14 new comedies premiering this fall, nearly matching the 15 comedies that will return during the entire 2013-2014 television season.  Networks are ordering a number of comedies, hoping to find the next The Big Bang Theory    .

Today: Will NBC find success or is the next Animal Practice on the way?  We take a look at each new comedy and the chances of it becoming a success.

Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):

Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) – One of the first cancellations of the season


Timeslot: Thursdays at 930/830c
Lead in: Sean Saves the World
Competition: GleeGrey’s AnatomyReignTwo and a Half Men

Analysis: One of this falls most anticipated comedies belongs to NBC’s The Michael J. Fox Show.  The reviews have been fairly positive thus far, although the competition is going to be tough.  Two and a Half Men is clearly not the show it used to be, but it is still a threat.  Working in favor of The Michael J. Fox Show is the fact the comedies are two different formats: one is multi-camera, the other single-camera.  The show, like The Crazy Ones, will be amply sampled in the first few weeks.  NBC is debuting two episodes back-to-back on premiere night, so it will at least give viewers a peak beyond the first episode.  Will The Michael J. Fox Show save NBC?  No, but it will be a step in the right direction.
Chance of Success: Very likely


Timeslot: Thursdays at 9/8c
Lead in: Welcome to the Family
Competition: The Crazy OnesGleeGrey’s AnatomyReign

Analysis: NBC is giving the multi-camera comedy genre another go-around this season with Sean Saves the World.  NBC has not had much luck with the format, as seen with Guys with Kids and Whitney.  There really is nothing new to see here, although viewers tend to enjoy shows that are familiar to them.  As it stands, Sean Saves the World is simply a family comedy, tweaking it to make the parent a single gay father.  It will have a tough time with the competition and an untested lead in, but I expect Sean Saves the World to do well enough to get by.
Chance of Success: Okay


Timeslot: Thursdays at 830/730c
Lead in: Parks and Recreation
Competition: The MillersOnce Upon a Time in WonderlandThe Vampire Diaries, The X Factor

Analysis: Among all the new comedies this season, I personally have been most excited for Welcome to the Family.  Unfortunately, I do not see things working all too well for the comedy.  It will be interesting to see a Caucasian / Latino mixed-family comedy and if it will be able to grab a sizable audience among both demographics.  However, its lead in, Parks and Recreation, will likely see huge declines this season against The Big Bang Theory, essentially forcing Welcome to the Family to self-start.  I am hoping I am wrong with this guess, but Welcome to the Family could very well be one of the first cancellations this season.
Chance of Success: Very poor

Chances of New Fall Comedies: FOX

There are 14 new comedies premiering this fall, nearly matching the 15 comedies that will return during the entire 2013-2014 television season.  Networks are ordering a number of comedies, hoping to find the next The Big Bang Theory     .

Today: Will FOX find success or is the next Ben and Kate on the way?  We take a look at each new comedy and the chances of it becoming a success.

Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):

Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) – One of the first cancellations of the season


Timeslot: Tuesdays at 830/730c
Lead in: Dads
Competition: Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.The Biggest LoserNCISThe Originals

Analysis: FOX is putting a lot of their advertising muscle behind Brooklyn Nine-Nine, hoping to find a new hit comedy.  With a terribly-reviewed Dads as a lead in and highly-anticipated Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. as well as NCIS as competition, Brooklyn Nine-Nine is going to face an uphill battle.  For whatever reason, FOX has always had a lot of trouble with their comedy space.  Given their number on comedy, New Girl, is hovering above a 2.0 A18-49, I do not see Brooklyn Nine-Nine going much higher.  In fact, I do not see it going above a 1.4 A18-49 once the premiere audience as settled.  In the end, I believe Brooklyn Nine-Nine will be a one season and done series.
Chance of Success: Poor


dads_fox_adTimeslot: Tuesdays at 8/7c
Lead in: Local programming
Competition: Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.The Biggest LoserNCISThe Originals

Analysis: Along with a number of new comedies this season, Dads has been critically lambasted.  Critics point to the overuse of racist jokes and bland plot as a reason for its terrible pilot.  As we have learned in the past, though, critics simply do not matter when it comes to new series.  The fact this comes from Seth MacFarlane (creator of Family Guy) should bring a built-in audience.  A large part of the regular cast has been a part of the Seth MacFarlane universe before, giving viewers more familiarity.  Not that anyone has really noticed, but Dads uses the same lowercase green font that hit movie Ted used last summer.  Does it really matter?  Probably not, but its something I found fitting to try and tie the two together.  The tough competition is going to hurt the series, but Dads seems more accessible than new comedy partner Brooklyn Nine-Nine.
Chance of Success: Okay


Timeslot: Fridays at 930/830c
Lead in: Raising Hope
Competition: GrimmHawaii Five-0Shark Tank (programming for the CW post-America’s Next Top Model has not officially been announced yet)

Analysis: FOX is debuting Enlisted as a part of its “Late Fall” lineup.  Since its not debuting until nearly two months after the rest of the FOX lineup, it is quite possible the show could air somewhere else to fill in for a cancelled series.  Unfortunately, if any Tuesday night comedy does fail, Raising Hope is more likely to fill in.  With a Friday night timeslot, against the nights number one series, Shark TankEnlisted will face a tough time.  If the series was scheduled to debut earlier in the season, I would pick it as one of the first cancellations.  Still, a cancellation within the first few episodes seems very likely.
Chance of Success: Very poor

Chances of New Fall Comedies: CBS

There are 14 new comedies premiering this fall, nearly matching the 15 comedies that will return during the entire 2013-2014 television season.  Networks are ordering a number of comedies, hoping to find the next The Big Bang Theory  .

Today: Will CBS find success or is the next Partners on the way?  We take a look at each new comedy and the chances of it becoming a success.

Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):

Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) – One of the first cancellations of the season

 

Timeslot: Thursdays at 9/8c

Lead in: The Millers
Competition: Glee, Grey’s AnatomyReignSean Saves the World
 
Analysis: The Crazy Ones is another venture into the single-camera comedy space for CBS.  The network has not aired a single-cam since one-season Worst Week in 2008.  This time around, CBS is giving the Robin Williams and Sarah Michelle Gellar starring series a big assignment: help launch a two hour comedy block on Thursday nights.  The show should get some strong initial sampling (thanks to the one hour premiere of The Big Bang Theory) but whether or not the audience sticks around remains to be seen.  I believe Robin Williams has a built-in audience, one that will skew a bit older.  Unlike Worst Week, I see this one working out quite well for CBS.
Chance of Success: Likely

The-Millers-logoTimeslot: Thursdays at 830/730c
Lead in: The Big Bang Theory
Competition: Once Upon a Time in WonderlandThe Vampire DiariesWelcome to the FamilyThe X Factor
 
Analysis: The Millers is being blasted for a pretty bad pilot, especially with the fart jokes.  The show has a typical CBS feel, which critics do not enjoy all too much.  What does matter though: viewers know CBS and their comedies and they tend to enjoy them.  Given the typical CBS feel, the lead in of the number one scripted series on broadcast television, and a lot of untested or weak competition, The Millers stands a good chance at succeeding.
Chance of Success: Very Likely

Mom-logoTimeslot: Mondays at 930/830c
Lead in: 2 Broke Girls
Competition: Beauty and the BeastDancing with the StarsSleepy HollowThe Voice
 
Analysis: Similar to The Millers, Mom is getting less than stellar reviews.  Along with those bad reviews are something CBS once again cares more about: their audience.  The show is from Chuck Lorre, who has given the network The Big Bang TheoryTwo and a Half Men, and Mike & Molly.  That is a track-record which bodes well for the network.  Along with the creator, it has the feel of a typical CBS comedy.  2 Broke Girls isn’t as strong as CBS expected it to be  this past season and the competition is tough, but Mom should come out of the gates strong.
Chance of Success: Likely

Timeslot: Mondays at 830/730c
Lead in: How I Met Your Mother
Competition: BonesDancing with the StarsHart of DixieThe Voice

Analysis: Sticking with the poorly-reviewed CBS comedy theme: We Are Men, which is expected to be one of the first cancellations of the season.  I do not think the show looks as bad as some are making it out to be, but the single-camera format will likely drive those typical CBS viewers away.  Unlike The Crazy Ones, We Are Men has not been given as big of a promotional push from the network, entertainment sites, and tabloid series’.  The final season of How I Met Your Mother should give the series a strong lead in, but the lead in did nothing for this past-seasons dud, Partners.  I do not predict terribly low numbers for We Are Men, but something in the vicinity of Partners is likely.
Chance of Success: Poor