Here is the NEW scale that will be used this season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series
Analysis: NBC is booting The Blacklist out of its timeslot in favor of State of Affairs, hoping it can replicate success. The competition is not all too rough, but with all three being a form of crime procedural, it’ll likely hurt State of Affairs just a tad. NBC has been promoting State of Affairs for a few weeks now, and has been able to devote much of the promotion time for it. Does advertising really correlate to success? Probably not, although it is better than nothing. I do not see State of Affairs being a Blacklist-type hit. In fact, I think it will likely have a somewhat strong premiere (2.4) and then taper off as the weeks go on. In either event, long term success seems doubtful.
Prediction: WEAK (2)