Edit: This post was originally typed in August, and never posted.
Here is the NEW scale that will be used this season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series
Keep in mind, The CW scale is in relative terms to other CW series, i.e. “Breakout” would mean higher than most other shows on the network, while “Weak” would simply mean its below average for the network. Comparisons to the other four broadcast networks are basically meaningless.
Quick Premise: Based on The Flash comic book, a man wakes up from a coma with superhuman speed.
Timeslot: Tuesdays at 8/7c
Lead in: Local programming
Competition: Manhattan Love Story, NCIS, Selfie, Utopia, The Voice
Analysis: The CW had big success with Arrow, and two years later they are hoping from more of the same with The Flash. The Originals successfully launched in the hour last season, so there is every reason to believe The Flash can do the same. The 8 o’clock hour is typically higher rated on The CW, since local programming gives the network a big push (more so than other networks, it appears). The competition, while tough with NCIS and The Voice, shouldn’t really put a dent in The Flash. The CW rarely seems to be effected by other networks programming, other than American Idol and The Voice. The difference here is The Flash will likely skew more male, taking away the sting from The Voice. With a built-in name and fan-base, The Flash should have no trouble breaking out for The CW. It is one of the safest bets of the season.
Prediction: BREAKOUT (5)
Analysis: Once you get past the wacky concept, Jane the Virgin is essentially a family drama. Set in Miami, and focusing on a Latino family, The CW could tap into an audience that is forgotten on broadcast television. In fact, I think this show could be a surprise and be the next Ugly Betty, although chances are slim. Competition for a similar audience in the hour is going to be tough. The Voice has the young females, and Dancing with the Stars has the older females. That doesn’t leave much for Jane the Virgin, unless it can tap into the Latino audience. The lead in, while strong, appears to be very incompatible. From vampires on The Originals to a family dramedy in Jane the Virgin, the pairing lacks any similarities. If The CW were in better position, and had another show similar to Jane the Virgin, chances could be higher for success. I’m not holding out much hope for Jane, although for some reason, I’ll be rooting for this show all season.
Prediction: WEAK (2)