Here is the NEW scale that will be used this season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series
Analysis: Similar to the Criminal Minds/Stalker pairing, the Grimm/Constantine pairing is just as smart for NBC. Constantine is a different kind of series for NBC, just like Grimm, in that there really is no other place on the schedule for it. Expectations are probably low for Constantine, although not terribly low. If Constantine wants to survive, it’ll either (A) have to hold onto a sizable amount of the Grimm audience, or (B) out-rate last years timeslot occupant, Dracula (which averaged about a 1.0). With a DC Comics relation for Constantine, I have to believe there is an audience out there ready for the series. Whether or not its a “big premiere, rapid decline” audience or “average premiere, not much decline” audience remains to be seen. Either way, I don’t see the competition having much of an impact on the likely younger-skewing Constantine, and with a solid lead-in, this seems safe.
Prediction: SOLID (3)
Quick Premise: A New York City Homicide Detective balances her job and duties as a single mother to twins.
Timeslot: Wednesdays at 8/7c
Lead in: Local programming
Competition: Arrow, The Goldbergs, Hell’s Kitchen, The Middle, Survivor
Analysis: Yawnnnnn. Of all the new shows debuting this fall, there is no show I find more cookie cutter and boring than The Mysteries of Laura. You mean she’s a cop AND a mother?! Gadzooks!!! Competition is tight in the hour. Each show, while not huge hits, still deliver strong numbers. Survivor has the reality crowd, families watch The Middle and The Goldbergs, young males are with Arrow, and the rest of the young audience is tuning into Hell’s Kitchen. For The Mysteries of Laura to work, it has to tap into its target audience: females. I think it may have a tough time doing that, especially with no lead in. The one positive of the show, if there are any, would be lead Debra Messing. She’s likable and has good comedic and dramatic acting skills. Still, despite her hit series Will & Grace, Debra Messing had two duds on her hands: 2007’s The Starter Wife and infamous second year ratings dropper, Smash. Basically, The Mysteries of Laura has a long battle ahead of itself, and its one that will come up far short (even with a pre-launch following America’s Got Talent one week before its official premiere).
Prediction: BOMB (1)