Predictions for New Dramas: ABC

Here is the NEW scale that will be used this season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series

foreverQuick Premise: New York City Medical Examiner helps solve cases, while trying to solve his own mystery: how he can live forever.
Timeslot: Tuesdays at 10/9c
Lead in: Agents of SHIELD
Competition: Chicago FirePerson of Interest

Analysis: I typed it three times last season, and here it goes again: yet another new show in the Tuesday 10 o’lcock timeslot on ABC.  Since Boston Legal aired in the timeslot in the 2007-08 season, seven scripted series have aired in the timeslot, SEVEN (Eli StoneThe ForgottenDetroit 187Body of ProofLucky 7Killer Women, and Mind Games).  That instantly puts Forever at a disadvantage.  In the case of Forever, it does have a solid lead in with Agents of SHIELD.  Unfortunately, there is likely little to no crossover audience between the two shows.  And like a number of other shows this season, and previous seasons, Forever may be on the wrong network (ahem, CBS).  Forever, a crime drama, has to face off against two other crime dramas, both of which are already established, and well rated.  The audience is basically dried up for crime dramas in the timeslot.  All of that spells bad news for Forever, which will not live up to its name.
Prediction: BOMB (1)

how-to-get-awayQuick Premise: A criminal defense professor (Viola Davis) and her law students get entangled in a murder case.
Timeslot: Thursdays at 10/9c
Lead in: Scandal
Competition: ElementaryParenthood

Analysis: Shonda Rhimes is the Executive Producer of yet another ABC drama.  Unlike her other dramas; however, Shonda Rhimes will not be writing How to Get Away with Murder (the only other one she didn’t write was Off the Map, which was cancelled after one season).  Despite Shonda not writing, it seems rather unimaginable that ‘Murder‘ could fail.  The series has the lead in of one of televisions hottest dramas.  Even if it holds only ~60% of its Scandal lead in, that would put How to Get Away with Murder at about a 1.8 A18-49, easily enough to win its timeslot.  Elementary and Parenthood are both quite weak in the hour, so competition won’t be an issue for How to Get Away with Murder.  Some say fatigue could set in with three Shonda Rhimes dramas back to back to back, but I don’t see that happening.  Viewers weren’t fatigued with two, and given each show premise is different, I don’t really see the harm in adding a third (unlike three NCIS’ airing together).  Paul Lee, President of ABC, has already said How to Get Away with Murder will be a 15-16 episode season, so were basically looking forward to season two here.  Without a doubt, this should be the easiest call of the season.
Prediction: BREAKOUT (5)


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