Predictions for New Comedies: FOX

Here is the NEW scale that will be used this season:
Breakout (5) – Strong out of the gate; one of the highest rated new series
Hit (4) – Ratings are high, but not one of the highest rated new series
Solid (3) – Neither strong nor weak, simply puts up average numbers
Weak (2) – Not a bomb, but puts up consistently low numbers
Bomb (1) – Fails to catch on; one of the lowest rated new series

mulaneyQuick Premise: The focus is on a comedian living in New York City and his friends.
Timeslot: Sundays at 930/830c
Lead in: Family Guy
Competition: The Good WifeNBC Sunday Night FootballResurrection

Analysis: On paper, Mulaney sounded like a solid comedy…and then the trailer was released.  The jokes were forced, unfunny, and Seinfeld rip-off references were made online instantly.  I can get over the Seinfeld rip-offs, since basically every show on broadcast television is like a series before it.  Jokes are typically unfunny in a comedy pilot anyway too, so no big deal.  However, Mulaney just doesn’t scream FOX comedy, and being on the wrong network can be a major negative.  Had this been a CBS comedy, chances might be a bit higher.  Mulaney does benefit from a strong lead in with Family Guy, although the two series don’t really fit one another.  The last time FOX debuted a live action sitcom after Family Guy was in 2010 with Sons of Tuscon.  That series held onto only 60% of Family Guy‘s audience, and was quickly cancelled.  The same thing could happen here with Mulaney.  Finally, competition will be tough against NBC Sunday Night Football, although FOX gets some solid results thanks to NFL Overrun earlier in the night.  Mulaney won’t perform all that week, but it won’t bomb either.  Still, a low result seems expected.
Prediction: WEAK (2)

Coming tomorrow: NBC comedies

Note: Initially, CBS was supposed to be posted today.  However, they only have one new comedy this fall (The McCarthys) and it doesn’t premiere until October 30th.  For that reason, FOX was bumped up one day and the post for CBS will wait until October.  In addition, no post will be published on Thursday (as NBC is now tomorrow).  My predictions for the returning comedies will be posted on Friday, as originally planned.

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