Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actor

veepOutstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Fred Armisen (Portlandia)
Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
Adam Driver (Girls)
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
Tony Hale (Veep)

Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Ty Burrell (as well as Julie Bowen) have been nominated for their work on Modern Family since the inception of the series.  They are the only three castmembers who have been nominated year after year.  Jesse has yet to win, while Ty won in 2011.  Neither is likely to pick up a win this year (sorry, Jesse).  I think this race comes down to Andre Braugher and last years winner, Tony Hale.  It will be an interesting race to watch.  The Emmy voters clearly love Veep, and the cast attached to the series.  Andre Braugher has won two Emmys, one for his role on Homicide: Life on the Street in 1998, and one for Thief in 2006.  Basically, the Emmy voters love both men.  It’ll be hard for Tony Hale to lose this one.

breaking badOutstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jim Carter (Downton Abbey)
Josh Charles (The Good Wife)
Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)
Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)
Jon Voight (Ray Donovan)

Last years winner, Bobby Cannavale (Boardwalk Empire), isn’t here this year, so the category is up for grabs.  Aaron Paul has won twice (2010 and 2012), and Peter Dinklage has won once (2011).  I don’t see Peter Dinkage winning this season, although Aaron Paul is a good possibility.  Mandy Patinkin was nominated last year, and lost, but could sneak in a win with Cannavale gone.  This is the first nomination for Jon Voight, who is well liked on Ray Donovan.  Then there is Josh Charles, who is generating a lot of buzz after his character was killed on The Good Wife.  It’s hard to bet against Aaron Paul and Breaking Bad, but I think it will happen here.  I’m going with Josh Charles, and I’m not sure I consider it an upset.

thenormalheartmovieOutstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Matt Bomer (The Normal Heart)
Martin Freeman (Sherlock: His Last Vow)
Colin Hanks (Fargo)
Joe Mantello (The Normal Heart)
Alfred Molina (The Normal Heart)
Jim Parsons (The Normal Heart)

There sure are a lot of The Normal Heart nominations, huh?  Since The Normal Heart was well-received, the winner is likely to be one of those actors, unless the votes cannibalize one another.  I don’t see that happening though, since most of the attention has been focused on one man: Matt Bomer.  Jim Parsons could sneak in a win, but he will likely have one in the bag for Best Actor in a Comedy, not this category.  Joe Mantello’s role was also well received in The Normal Heart.  As I already said though, I can’t see Matt Bomer losing this category.

Coming tomorrow: Best Supporting Actress


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