Emmy Predictions: Lead Actress

Parks_and_recreation_titleOutstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Lena Dunham (Girls)
Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
Melissa McCarthy (Mike & Molly)
Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation)
Taylor Schilling (Orange is the New Black)

Right off the bat, no way Lena Dunham nor Melissa McCarthy win the Emmy.  This is the third nomination for both Lena and Melissa.  Lena has never won, so don’t be surprised to see her lose again.  Despite winning before, Melissa McCarthy doesn’t stand much of a chance, since her nomination was a shock, and the competition is quite stiff.  Edie Falco has been nominated many times as well, with one win coming in 2010.  It appears her time has passed for another win.  For the fifth time, Amy Poehler was nominated, but has yet to walk away with a win.  Like the other ladies already mentioned, I don’t see Amy taking the prize.  That leaves us with the winner of the past two years, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, and star of Orange is the New Black, Taylor Schilling.  While her work is quite good on ‘Black‘, Schilling will be defeated.  The Emmy’s love Julia Louis-Dreyfus, and nothing will stop her from clinching her third Emmy in a row for her work on Veep.

Homeland-2Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Lizzy Caplan (Masters of Sex)
Claire Danes (Homeland)
Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey)
Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
Kerry Washington (Scandal)
Robin Wright (House of Cards)

The last (and only) woman to win three consecutive Emmy’s in this category was Tyne Daley, when she did it for her role on Cagney & Lacey in the early 1980s.  Should Claire Danes win this year, she would become the second woman to win three consecutive Emmy’s for the category.  The competition is stiff.  Julianna Margulies returns to the game, after being snubbed last season, and Lizzy Caplan comes onto the scene with a powerful role.  Kerry Washington, Michelle Dockery, and Robin Wright were all nominated last year, and will likely leave empty handed yet again.  So, this is a three way race between Caplan, Danes, and Margulies.  Caplan is unlikely to win, although I would not be surprised if she was the dark horse to steal the win.  I’ve gone back and forth between Margulies and Danes, unable to decide who will win.  It seems unlikely that the very likable Danes will lose, but Homeland is coming off a slow year, while The Good Wife is heating up (despite not picking up a Drama nomination).  In the end, I’m going with Juliana Margulies.

CovenOutstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Helena Bonham Carter (Burton & Taylor)
Minnie Driver (Return to Zero)
Jessica Lange (American Horror Story: Coven)
Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Coven)
Cicely Tyson (The Trip to Bountiful)
Kristen Wiig (The Spoils of Babylon)

Where to begin.  This is probably the toughest category for me to figure out, simply because I haven’t heard much about any of the nominees.  I read up on each of their performances for some help, and then made a decision.  Helena Bonham Carter did excellent work for her role, earning unanimous praise, but it has yet to win a single award.  Minnie Driver has won an Emmy before, and the same goes for Jessica Lange – either of these two could win.  Sarah Paulson is out of reach since Jessica Lange is the face of American Horror Story.  Cicely Tyson and Kristen Wigg are not likely to win, as neither miniseries/movie drummed up much support.  I was torn between Jessica Lange and Helena Bonham Carter, but my money is on Helena Bonham Carter.

Coming Tomorrow: Best Supporting Actor


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