Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor

big bangOutstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Louis C.K. (Louie)
Don Cheadle (House of Lies)
Ricky Gervais (Derek)
Matt LeBlanc (Episodes)
William H. Macy (Shameless)
Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)

Jim Parsons won the Emmy for Outstanding Actor two years in a row, lost to Jon Cryer in a major upset the following year, and then regained his crown last year.  Essentially, this is Jim Parsons to win.  This is the fourth time Louis C.K. has been nominated, but he has yet to win.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he finally wins, though its a slim chance.  Nobody else in the category screams “winner”.  Jim Parsons is the easy favorite to win.

poster_truedetectiveOutstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom)
Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
Woody Harrelson (True Detective)
Matthew McConaughey (True Detective)
Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)

Now this is very interesting.  I consider this to be the most difficult category to win.  Jon Hamm has been nominated seven times, and has yet to win.  I don’t see him sneaking in for a win given how tough competition this year.  Jeff Daniels surprised everyone last year and won.  Unlikely to happen again this year.  Netflix would love to see Kevin Spacey win, but again, it won’t happen.  This is a three-way race between Cranston, Harrelson, and McConaughey.  Harrelson could win since True Detective was acclaimed; however, the focus has been more on McConaughey than anyone else.  McConaughey won the Critics Choice Television Award for Best Actor in a Drama Series, defeating Bryan Cranston (the only two crossovers between the two award shows in the category).  That puts McConaughey in a solid position to win, if not for Cranston.  Despite not winning the Emmy for Best Actor since the ’09-’10 Emmy’s, it seems inconceivable that Cranston could lose this season.  The episode he is nominated for, Ozymandias”, is considered by some to be the best hour of television ever.  This is the final time Bryan Cranston can win for Breaking Bad, so I’m saying he defeats the difficult competition.

Sherlock_titlecardOutstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Benedict Cumberbatch (Sherlock)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (Dancing on the Edge)
Idris Elba (Luther)
Martin Freeman (Fargo)
Mark Ruffalo (The Normal Heart)
Billy Bob Thornton (Fargo)

With the exception of Idris Elba, the remaining five men were all nominated for Best Actor in a Movie/Miniseries at the Critics Choice Television Awards.  For that reason alone, I’m thinking Idris Elba will not win (although the two award show winners are rarely similar).  The award, in case you were curious, would eventually go to Billy Bob Thornton.  Regarding the Emmy’s, Cumberbatch has been nominated before for his role, and lost.  Ejiofor could surprise, but Dancing on the Edge really never stood out this year.  Like McConaughey/Harrelson with True Detective, Thronton is probably more deserving than Freeman for Fargo.  The front-runner; however, is Mark Ruffalo.  Reviews for HBO’s The Normal Heart were very positive, as were reviews for the acting.  Ruffalo and Thornton will duke it out until the end, with Mark Ruffalo taking home the award.

Coming tomorrow: Lead Actress


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