Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Series

big bangOutstanding Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Louie (FX)
Modern Family (ABC)
Orange is the New Black (Netflix)
Silicon Valley (HBO)
Veep (HBO)

Will Modern Family win for the fifth consecutive time?  Will The Big Bang Theory finally grab a win?  Is this the year Netflix scores big with Orange is the New Black?  It is a tough category to win, and one that doesn’t change very often (the last comedy not named Modern Family or 30 Rock to win was The Office, way back in 2006).  Both The Big Bang Theory and Modern Family are coming off seasons in which critical praise seems to have dimmed a bit.  Louie is a critical darling, but gets lost in the shuffle – and the same goes for Silicon Valley and Veep.  That leaves Orange is the New Black.  The show stormed onto the scene and scored nominations in a number of prime categories.  I think Emmy voters will stand behind a fresh series, and one that is not broadcast in the typical television fashion.  They like “new”, and Netflix is certainly as “new” as one can get.  While I’m still a big fan of The Big Bang Theory, the winner here is Orange is the New Black.

breaking badOutstanding Drama Series
Breaking Bad (AMC)
Downton Abbey (PBS)
Game of Thrones (HBO)
House of Cards (Netflix)
Mad Men (AMC)
True Detective (HBO)

Breaking Bad won the category last season, in the midst of its epic final season.  Now that the show has been off the air for over a year, is it possible for Breaking Bad to earn another win?  Downton Abbey and Game of Thrones are instant losers in the category.  It was a surprise Downton Abbey even earned a nomination, and Game of Thrones is not the typical Emmy winner.  Sorry fans of ‘Thrones’.  Mad Men has won numerous times in the category, but hasn’t won since 2011, so its time appears to have passed.  Similar to Orange is the New BlackHouse of Cards airs on Netflix, and its new and cool.  Unlike Orange is the New Black; however, House of Cards was nominated last season – and lost.  That leaves us with two close competitors: Breaking Bad and True Detective.  Even though its been off the air for a year, the final eight episodes of Breaking Bad were the best of the series.  True Detective has earned a lot of praise, but more of it seems focused on the leads than the series itself (a series I found to be a snooze).  It seems that Breaking Bad has this win in the bag.

DailyShowOutstanding Variety Series
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

For the third year in a row, the nominations remain the same in the category*.  The winner for ten of the last eleven years was The Daily Show with Jon Stewart.  The only time Jon Stewart didn’t win?  Last year, when The Colbert Report scored a shocking win.  That means this category is essentially between the two Comedy Central guys.  The Daily Show seems like the easiest option to go with here, but given Stephen Colbert was named the new host of The Late Show on CBS, I think it scores him some points among the Emmy members.  For that reason, I predict The Colbert Report wins for the second year in a row.

CovenOutstanding Miniseries
American Horror Story: Coven (FX)
Bonnie & Clyde (A&E)
Fargo (FX)
Luther (BBC America)
Treme (HBO)
The White Queen (Starz)

Please welcome back the Outstanding Miniseries category!  After a three year hiatus, the Emmy committee decided to split the Outstanding Miniseries and Outstanding Television Movie categories once again.  Many of these series are actually dramas, weird, huh?  That makes this a bit more interesting.  American Horror Story was nominated for its first two installments in the now-retired category, and failed to win.  Luther was also previously nominated once in that category, in 2012, and lost too.  Bonnie & Clyde is the most “out there” nomination, since reviews weren’t all that great.  Treme scored its first nominations in the Emmy’s for a major race.  The White Queen could surprise us all, but this sounds like an easy win for Fargo.  If the drama series somehow loses, it’ll be a major upset.

thenormalheartmovieOutstanding Television Movie
Killing Kennedy (National Geographic)
Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight (HBO)
The Normal Heart (HBO)
Sherlock: “His Last Vow” (PBS)
The Trip to Bountiful (Lifetime)

Similar to above, this used to be a category, was combined with Television Miniseries, and then disbanded into a separate category once again this year.  Many of the movies within this category don’t stand much of a chance.  Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight and Sherlock are far out of reach of a win.  Neither made much of a mark on the television world.  The Trip to Bountiful (sorry, what?) has no chance of winning.  This is actually the first time I’ve heard of the movie!  The race is between Killing Kennedy and The Normal Heart.  Killing Kennedy will likely score some some votes, in the end; however, the much-praised The Normal Heart will nab an easy win.

Amazing_Race_France_logoOutstanding Reality – Competition Series
The Amazing Race (CBS)
Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
Project Runway (Lifetime)
So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)
Top Chef (Bravo)
The Voice (NBC)

Created in 2003, only three shows have ever won: The Amazing Race (2003-2009, 2011-2012), Top Chef (2010), and The Voice (2013); and all three are nominated again this year.  Project Runway has been nominated ten (!) times, Dancing with the Stars nine times, and So You Think You Can Dance? four times.  Basically, this never category never sees much change.  Despite a category filled with recent nominees, the race is between The Amazing Race and The Voice.  The Amazing Race screams to be the favorite, since its won so many times, but the recent seasons didn’t really garner much acclaim (nor viewership).  The Voice may surprise again and score a win.  I’m torn.  I’ll go with The Voice simply because The Amazing Race lacked this year.

Coming tomorrow: Lead Actor

 *Jimmy Fallon was nominated for his time on Late Night the previous two years, and was nominated again this year for The Tonight Show.


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