Chances of New Series: May 2014

There are three series debuting this week, kicking off the official start to the summer television season.  All three of the summer debuts ending the month of May come from NBC.

As I stated earlier this month, I’m abandoning the five scale system I previously used in favor of a brand new scale.  The new scale is much more simple, going from five possible options to only two.  This scale isn’t finalized for the fall season yet, but I will be testing it during the summer months.  Any thoughts on the scale are always welcome!

Renewal Predicted – The series will be renewed
Cancellation Predicted – The series will be cancelled

imagesTimeslot: Tuesdays at 10/9c
Lead in: 
America’s Got Talent
Broadcast Competition: Celebrity Wife Swap, and Person of Interest (r)
Analysis: The Night Shift is not the first scripted series to get a shot behind NBC’s number one summer series, America’s Got Talent.  Just last year, NBC launched Camp and the series failed to catch on.  Despite the 2.2-2.6 lead in most weeks, Camp did low 1.0’s and even some sub-1.0’s.  The reviews for The Night Shift have been mediocre, at best, with many pointing out the typical medical drama cliches.  The competition is weak, but that is common for the summer season.  Similar to Camp, I do not see The Night Shift finding much of an audience, even if it does have the best summer lead in.
Prediction: Cancellation

34328Timeslot: Thursdays at 9/8c and 9:30/8:30c
Lead in: Hollywood Game Night
Broadcast Competition: Big Brother (begins 6/26), Gang Related, Rookie Blue (begins 6/19), and The Vampire Diaires (r)
Analysis: Undateable was the one NBC comedy I was most excited about this season, and yet it gets the summer treatment.  It’s not the worst of situations for the new comedy; however, as it has a solid lead in (Hollywood Game Night) and lead out (Last Comic Standing).  Then again, this is a comedy airing on Thursday nights, where NBC has failed to launch a single comedy hit in the past few seasons.  The competition is light, with every broadcast network in repeat mode, with the exception of  FOX airing Gang Related, until mid-June.  Airing two episodes a week screams burnoff to me and it’ll be off the air by the end of June.  If NBC had any faith in the series, I think it would have aired at midseason, or at least one episode a week.
Prediction: Cancellation

crossbones-s1-keyart-xlTimeslot: Fridays at 10/9c
Lead in: Dateline NBC
Broadcast Competition: 20/20 and Blue Bloods (r)
Analysis: I can’t remember the last time a broadcast network launched a series during the summer on Friday nights.  Crossbones; however, is a solid option for the night, since it will likely skew older.  It doesn’t really fit on the schedule anywhere else either, so Friday looked like the perfect dumping ground.  Dateline NBC pulled in a 1.6 in the 9 o’clock hour this past week, so if it can do that again this week, Crossbones has a solid launchpad.  Competition is also very light, with 20/20 pretty much the only show it has to face, on broadcast or cable.  As I said though, this is a summer series airing on Friday nights.  Is anyone even going to be home when Crossbones is on?  My guess is few will be interested, like most summer offerings.
Prediction: Cancellation
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