Chances of New Series Results

Over the course of television season, I predicted the fate of nearly every new series.  I initially thought the feature would only be posted during the fall season, but it expanded beyond that beginning in February.  While the fate of every show was not predicted, a large majority of them were.  After yet another television season, the results of my predictions are finally in!

Here is the scale I used throughout the season:
Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer, renewal inevitable
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer, renewal likely
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer, but still renewed
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer, cancellation likely
Very Poor (19-0) – A terrible performer, cancellation inevitable

For the results, I placed each series into the respective category I initially predicted it would fall in.  The Very Likely, Likely, and Okay categories meant I predicted a series would be renewed, while the Poor and Very Poor categories meant I predicted a series would be cancelled.  Once placed into those categories, the correct predictions are in GREEN and the incorrect predictions are in RED.  Since there are five categories to be placed in, and only two options for a series (renewed or cancelled), it does not matter if I said a series was Very Likely to be renewed, and ended up only being a modest hit, it was still renewed.  The scale will be modified over the summer, but more on that after the results.

I predicted the following series would Very Likely be renewed:
The Originals
The Blacklist
The Michael J. Fox Show
The Millers
The 100
Success rate: 4/5 (80%)

Analysis: Just a quick thought: I only predicted five series would very likely become hits, and all of those begin with “the”.  Not that it means anything, but its a bit interesting.  Also interesting: I did not pick a single ABC or FOX series to be an outstanding performer.  Four of the series were renewed, and all four were locks for renewal from the beginning (maybe with the exception of The Millers, but CBS is going to push it into syndication).  The biggest mistake was The Michael J. Fox Show, but I think many people were on that same boat.  After all, did anyone really think Michael J. Fox would do an 0.6 on NBC?

I predicted the following series would Likely be renewed:
The Tomorrow People
The Crazy Ones
Success rate: 1/4 (25%)

Analysis: I don’t know if it just my predictions, or the television season as a whole, but I did not predict many series to likely be renewed for another season.  On top of that, 3 of the 4 I predicted would return, were cancelled.  The only series I correctly predicted was Mom, which performed okay for most of the season.  The other three were all cancelled last week, but none of them really had a chance at coming back.

I predicted the following series would be Okay performers, but still be renewed:
Agents of SHIELD
Sean Saves the World
Back in the Game
The Goldbergs
About a Boy
Growing Up Fisher
Friends with Better Lives
Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey
Success rate3/11 (27%)

Analysis: Yes, it does get worse.  The three series I did get correct; however, are actually okay performers.  None have set the world on fire, but none have done all that bad.  Agents of SHIELD has settled in around a 2.0 demo, The Goldbergs held its own, and About a Boy has done okay in the post-Voice timeslot.  As for the others, I’m surprised NBC gave up on Growing up Fisher so soon, and same with CBS and Friends with Better Lives.  Hostages  and Cosmos were set to be a mini-series anyway, but still, I thought both would perform better.

I predicted the following series would be Poor performers, and would be cancelled:
Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
Brooklyn Nine Nine
We Are Men
Super Fun Night
Chicago PD
Surviving Jack
Bad Teacher
Success rate: 8/12 (67%)

Analysis: Well, I predicted a lot of duds, and a lot of dud there were!  Reign really surprised me at how well it performed following The Vampire Diaries, especially with the show hitting series lows in recent weeks.  In the future, I’ll have to learn to leave personal preferences out of the equation.  I’ve made it clear many times I do not like Andy Samberg, and I was really hoping the show would not advance toward another season.  I rarely, if ever, root for a show to be cancelled, but I was hoping Brooklyn Nine Nine would bite the dust.  Resurrection took some hard falls in its eight episode run.  Still, ABC has struggled in the drama department, and any new show that doesn’t fall below a 2.0 is coming back.  Had the show had a longer run, it may have been a bigger question.

I predicted the following series would be Very Poor performers, and would be cancelled:
Lucky 7
Sleepy Hollow
Welcome to the Family
Trophy Wife
Killer Women
Mind Games
Star Crossed
American Dream Builders
Black Box (no decision has been made, so its left out for now)
Success rate: 11/12 (92%)

Analysis: If anything, it appears I’m best at predicting which shows will do the worst.  Then again, I think most people predicted these would be some of the worst-performing shows of the season.  The only miss on the list was Sleepy Hollow, which was undoubtedly the number one new show on FOX this season.

Overall success rate: 27/44 (61%)

Analysis: Most of the predictions I made were solid.  The thing that brought me down the most was the “OKAY” category, which is what I was worried about from the beginning.  I like the idea of two categories for renewals, and two for cancellation.  Splitting it up into five categories caused unevenness.  I may even add another category (okay – renewal, okay – cancellation).  I could simply have “renewal predicted” and “cancellation predicted” categories too, since that is how results are sorted anyway.   I’m still trying to figure out which is the best option, and hope to have all, if not most, of the kinks worked out by September.  Still, for its first full season in operation, I’m rather pleased with the 61% success rate.

If you want to re-read any of my predictions, here are the links:
Back in the Game, The Goldbergs, Super Fun Night, and Trophy Wife
The Crazy Ones, The Millers, Mom, and We Are Men
Brooklyn Nine Nine, Dads, and Enlisted
The Michael J. Fox Show, Sean Saves the World, and Welcome to the Family
Betrayal, Lucky 7, Agents of SHIELD, and Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
The Originals, Reign, and The Tomorrow People
Hostages, and Sleepy Hollow
The Blacklist, Dracula, and Ironside
Intelligence, Killer Women, Chicago PD, and Rake
About a Boy, Growing Up Fisher, Mind Games, Mixology, and Star Crossed
Believe, Cosmos, Crisis, and Resurrection
The 100, American Dream Builders, Friends with Better Lives, and Surviving Jack
Bad Teacher, and Black Box


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