In September 2013, I went ahead and predicted which returning comedies and dramas would be renewed for the 2014-15 television season. This was the second time I attempted to predict network decisions prior to the start of the television season.
For the most recent edition, I predicted the fates of 14 broadcast comedies and 14 broadcast dramas. For the results, I split each show into one of four categories: those I predicted would be renewed (for comedies and dramas), and those I predicted would be cancelled (again, for comedies and dramas). If a show is colored in GREEN, I correctly predicted its fate. If a show is colored in RED; however, my prediction was wrong.
I predicted the following comedies would be renewed:
Last Man Standing
2 Broke Girls
The Big Bang Theory
Mike & Molly
Parks and Recreation
Success rate: 8/9 (89%)
Analysis: Looking back, I did quite well calling the comedy renewals. Of course, most of the shows were easy calls, but one did come down to the wire (Last Man Standing). As for Raising Hope, I gave the show a 51% chance of returning. I initially thought FOX would run away from the idea of moving the show to Friday nights, hence giving it a higher-viewed timeslot, and a chance at returning this season. Within my prediction I did say if the show was actually moved to Fridays; however, it would be cancelled:
“If the move to Friday does actually happen, I believe this could possibly be the final season of Raising Hope. However, I am going to stay positive and say the show advances to a fifth season.”
So sure, I was wrong about Raising Hope, but I was close, right?
I predicted the following comedies would be cancelled:
Two and a Half Men
The Mindy Project
Success rate: 3/5 (60%)
Analysis: The three comedies that were actually cancelled all had their fates determined just last week. Suburgatory and Community both had a chance of returning, and Suburgatory may actually have its call reversed if Warner Brothers is successful in finding it a new home. As for The Mindy Project and Two and a Half Men, I was wrong. The Mindy Project should have been cancelled based on its ratings, but FOX stuck with it. For Two and a Half Men, it was the second year in a row I incorrectly predicted a cancellation. Third times the charm?
Overall success rate for comedies: 11/14 (79%)
I predicted the following dramas would be renewed:
The Carrie Diaries
Success rate: 8/9 (89%)
Analysis: Once again, one show away from a perfect score! Nasvhille was one of the final shows to be renewed, and it easily could have gone either way. The rest of the shows that were renewed were easy calls, except perhaps for The Following, which has plummeted in year two. Still, FOX renewed it very early on. Looking back though, I wonder why in the world I predicted a renewal for The Carrie Diaries. I re-read my prediction, and my 75% chance of renewal rating doesn’t seem to make much sense. I said the show would do 0.2’s and 0.3’s, and was hesitant if that was enough. Still, I was wrong and am left wondering why I thought the low-rated series could cheat death twice.
I predicted the following dramas would be cancelled:
The Good Wife
Beauty and the Beast
Law and Order: SVU
Success rate: 1/5 (20%)
Analysis: And here is where it got ugly. The only drama I correctly predicted would be cancelled was Revolution, and even that was a question mark heading into last week. All four of the dramas I incorrectly predicted the fate of; however, probably deserved to be cancelled. Revenge and The Good Wife are both low-rated on Sunday nights, Beauty and the Beast was one of the biggest surprise renewals of the season, and SVU was thisclose to being canned. In my defense, like Raising Hope, I was close to being correct for two dramas, and here’s why:
Law and Order SVU…
“NBC may give the show a short 13 episode final season, but a full 22 episode sixteenth season seems rather unlikely.”
I predicted it could be renewed with this sentence, yet still gave it a 49% chance of renewal (meaning cancellation). NBC has yet to state the episode order for Law and Order: SVU, so I may at least get a portion of my prediction correct.
The Good Wife…
“If CBS finds one or two new hit dramas, The Good Wife will finally be out the door.”
CBS didn’t find any new drama hits this season, meaning they needed The Good Wife for at least one more season. With a slew of new dramas ordered, this has to be the end of the line for the critically acclaimed drama.
The thing that stings most is that this is the second year in a row I predicted a cancellation for The Good Wife and SVU (just like Two and a Half Men). Still, I predicted cancellations for both, so I’ll accept my defeat and move on.
Overall success rate for dramas: 9/14 (64%)
Overall success rate for comedies and dramas: 20/28 (71%)
Analysis: Well, I tried! I correctly predicted the fate of 20 shows, which isn’t all too bad, especially when a few of them were on the bubble prior to the season beginning. I’ll be left wondering why I made some choices (the renewal of The Carrie Diaries, the cancellation of SVU, etc.), but there is nothing I can do to change it. If I have learned anything from doing this over the past two seasons, its that predicting the fate of series’ before the season begins is pretty tough. A series could suddenly take a huge drop in ratings (The Following) or hang around due to critical acclaim (The Good Wife). In this day and age, when DVR’s are quickly gaining popularity and networks are forced to re-evaluate their decisions, predictions will become even more difficult. I’m going to give it another try this upcoming season, and hopefully improve upon my prediction rate. I may even include more than 28 shows, although I haven’t decided just yet. This is definitely one of my more favorite features to publish each year, so if anyone has suggestions on how it could be improved, I’m listening!