There are two new series debuting this month, the final two premieres of the 2013-14 television year. CBS has one new comedy, and ABC has one new drama.
Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are % chance of becoming a success):
Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer, renewal inevitable
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer, renewal likely
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer, but still renewed
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer, cancellation likely
Very Poor (19-0) – A terrible performer, cancellation inevitable
Thursdays at 930/830c
Lead in: Two and a Half Men
Competition: Hollywood Game Night, Grey’s Anatomy, Reign, Surviving Jack
Analysis: Last May, Bad Teacher wasn’t picked up until a week after upfronts. With such a late pickup I figured CBS saw something positive in Bad Teacher. Then it never got a premiere date and when it finally did, it was late April – not good. If the series was any good, I think CBS would have debuted in much earlier. However, CBS has given Bad Teacher a pretty solid promotional push and it will air with a still-strong Two and a Half Men lead in. Competition is also very light when it comes to comedy (Surviving Jack is dying) and overall competition (Grey’s Anatomy’s 2.4-2.8 is it). Lets face it though, Bad Teacher was a mediocre movie, at best. Reviews are looking that way thus far too. Chicago Sun-Times and San Francisco Times both gave it okay reviews, with Sun-Times saying the premise will wear thin, and the Times noting it is better than the movie. Still, a late debut gives Bad Teacher only so much time to prove itself. In the end, the CBS audience will likely reject Bad Teacher, and it will be burned-off over the summer.
Chance of Success: Poor
Thursdays at 10/9c
Lead in: Grey’s Anatomy
Competition: Elementary, Various NBC Specials
Analysis: If one thing is for sure, the competition in the hour is light! NBC has a Saturday Night Live special this week, and the debut of the iHeart Radio Music Awards, and Elementary airs on CBS. Black Box also has the help from its lead in Grey’s Anatomy. Reviews have actually be pretty positive. People and The Wall Street Journal each say the series strong point is lead Kelly Reilly. No matter how good Kelly Reilly may be, is she a household name yet? Will people know she is good? My guess is no. As with Bad Teacher, I think the late debut will ultimately hurt Black Box more so than anything else. In addition, ABC has a string of bad luck with new dramas (excluding Resurrection, maybe?), and I see it continuing with Black Box.
Chance of Success: Very Poor
I just want to say thank you to everyone who read Chances of New Series throughout the 2013-2014 television season. I have yet to decide if will continue with this for the summer season, or revert back to the How Will It Do? feature from last summer (click here to see). If you have any opinion on which you like better, please let me know in the comments below. No matter what my decision for summer ends up being, the Chances of New Series feature will return in the fall for the third year in a row!
Finally, results for how I did this season will be compiled after schedules are announced at the Upfront Presentations. Also, look for my Upfront predictions early next month!