Chances of New Series: Early and Mid-March 2014

There are four new series debuting in the coming weeks, all of which happen to air on Sunday nights.  NBC will debut two new dramas, with ABC and FOX each premiering one new drama.


Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are % chance of becoming a success):

Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer, renewal inevitable
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer, renewal 50/50
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) – A terrible performer, cancellation inevitable

Timeslot: Sundays at 9/8c
Lead in: The Voice (Monday special premiere only) / Dateline NBC / American Dream Builders (effective 3/23)
Competition: Cosmos: A Space-Time OdysseyThe Good Wife, and Resurrection

Analysis: Believe has two things working in its favor for the debut episode.  The first is director Alfonso Curaón, who just won an Academy Award for Best Director (Gravity) and the second is its lead in: The Voice.  Without a doubt, I think Believe will have a pretty good debut.  After its debut, however, things will likely go downhill for Believe…and fast.  For its second episode, the series moves to Sunday nights, which NBC typically struggles with post-Sunday Night Football.  Perhaps the toughest part about airing on the night is airing in the same timeslot as televisions number one scripted series, The Walking Dead.  In addition, there is absolutely no lead-in support on the night (as seen above).  Had NBC left Believe on Monday nights, I think it could have had a 75 percent chance of moving toward a second season.  On Sundays though, it will get ugly.
Chance of Success: Poor

Timeslot: Sundays at 9/8c
Lead in: Family Guy
Competition: Believe, The Good Wife, and Resurrection

Analysis: No mid-season series is getting a bigger debut than FOX’s Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey.  The series will premiere on a number of networks, including FOX, FX, FXX, Fox Sports, National Geographic, and a number of other FOX-owned networks.  Reviews for the first episode have been positive as well, with an average score of 84 on Metacritic.  Similar to Believe, I think Cosmos will have a solid debut, especially given the advertising push.  Unlike Believe, however, there is a solid lead in for Cosmos with Family Guy.  How similar are the audiences though?  I cannot imagine too similar, but still, some lead in is better than no lead in.  Airing at 9 o’clock will be a challenge for Cosmos as there is simply so much competition.  If it can find its own audience though, it should be fine.
Chance of Success: Okay

Timeslot: Sundays at 10/9c
Lead in: Believe
Competition: The Mentalist, and Revenge

Analysis: Yet another new series on Sundays!  Crisis will air immediately after NBC’s other new scripted drama, Believe.  If Believe does as bad as I think it will on Sundays, Crisis is going to have to self-start, and I simply do not see that happening.  The premise, while interesting, does not seem like it could go on for more than one season.  In a way, it almost feels like CBS’ Hostages or NBC’s failure from a few seasons back, The Event.  One item working in favor of Crisis is that it is at least out of the tough 9 o’clock hour.  The Mentalist and Revenge are both slowly marching toward cancellation, so there is an opening for Crisis.  Then again, airing on NBC Sunday nights, behind a new series, with a possible-limited premise, does not spell out good news.  I could see an okay debut for Crisis, but as the weeks go on, fewer and fewer viewers will be sticking around.
Chance of Success: Very poor

Timeslot: Sundays at 9/8c
Lead in: Once Upon a Time
Competition: BelieveCosmos: A Space-Time OdysseyThe Good Wife

Analysis: If there is one new series I have been most excited for this season, it is ABC’s Resurrection.  The premise is intriguing (loved-ones return from the dead).  Reviews for the pilot of Resurrection have been average, with a 63 on Metacritic.  The advertising push for the series has also been strong as well (I saw many during the Academy Awards).  And unlike many new ABC series (Mind Games, for example), at least Resurrection will receive a solid lead in from Once Upon a Time.  There are a number of factors working against Resurrection though as well.  As much as I love the premise, how long can it go on?  Will viewers get bored and simply move on?  Then there is the competition, which has been discussed many times above (three new shows at 9 o’clock, wow!).  Similar to the shows above, I think viewers will be intrigued for the series premiere, and then disappear fairly quick.
Chance of Success: Poor

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One thought on “Chances of New Series: Early and Mid-March 2014

  1. Pingback: Chances of New Series Results | Tonight on TV

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