Chances of New Series: February 2014

There are five new series premiering this month, with two on ABC, two on NBC, and one on The CW.  NBC will debut two comedies, ABC will debut one comedy and one drama, and The CW will debut a new drama.

Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are % chance of becoming a success):

Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer, renewal inevitable
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer, renewal 50/50
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) – A terrible performer, cancellation inevitable

Timeslot: Tuesdays at 9/8c
Lead in: The Voice
Competition: The Goldbergs, NCIS: Los Angeles, New Girl, and Supernatural

Analysis: NBC is hoping to finally find a hit comedy this season in About a Boy.  The series, based off the novel of the same name, has been getting solid reviews.  Entertainment Weekly and The Wall Street Journal both gave the pilot episode (which airs Saturday, February 22nd at 11, following the Olympics) solid reviews.  Unfortunately for NBC, I doubt much of anything comes from the series.  As with most of their comedy selections, About a Boy seems too quirky for the average viewer.  Jason Katims, who developed the series, has given NBC two other shows will positive acclaim, yet small viewership (Friday Night Lights and Parenthood).  About a Boy does have one major thing working it its favor: the lead in of The Voice.  I do see NBC giving the series another season, but it will be nothing more than the next Parks and Recreation.
Chance of Success: Okay

GrowingUpFisher_PTimeslot: Tuesdays at 930/830c
Lead in: About a Boy
Competition: Brooklyn Nine-NineNCIS: LASupernatural, and Trophy Wife

Analysis: Similar to About a Boy, Growing Up Fisher is receiving early positive reviews from Entertainment Weekly and People for its pilot episode (which airs Sunday, February 23rd at 1030, following the Olympics).  The comedy follows a family (the Fishers) who get divorced and buy a guide-dog for the blind father (a bit “out-there”, huh?).  Should the show follow in line with most family comedies, it may have a chance.  In addition, the timeslot is rather cushy in between About a Boy and Chicago Fire.  Any chance Growing Up Fisher has at success will depend on how well About a Boy holds onto the audience from The Voice.  Still, I think its chances of becoming a success are pretty good.
Chance of Success: Okay

Timeslot: Tuesdays at 10/9c
Lead in: Trophy Wife
Competition: Chicago Fire, and Person of Interest

Analysis: Despite the somewhat-unique premise and solid reviews, Mind Games has way too many factors working against it to survive.  The first, and perhaps biggest challenge, will be the timeslot.  Tuesdays at 10 have been a real struggle for ABC, which hasn’t occupied a hit series since Boston Legal in 2007-08 season.  Since that point, the following dramas have come and gone: Eli Stone, The Forgotten, Detroit 187, Body of Proof (it never performed all that well), Lucky 7, and Killer Women.  The second challenge, which goes along with the timeslot, is its lead in.  Trophy Wife has not done well all season, and has recently been putting up low 1.0’s, as well as an 0.9 for its most recent airing.  The third challenge is the “show killers” who are a part of Mind Games.  Christian Slater starred in My Own Worst Enemy, The Forgotten, and Breaking In, which all were done after one or two seasons.  Creator Kyle Killen has gained acclaim in the business, but those shows were both short-lived: Lone Star and Awake.  I am hoping for a surprise from Mind Games, but I do not see it happening.
Chance of Success: Very poor

Timeslot: Wednesdays at 930/830c
Lead in: Modern Family
Competition: American IdolCriminal Minds, Law and Order: Special Victims UnitThe Tomorrow People (until March) / The 100 (beginning March 19th)

Analysis: Mixology is a unique concept, with the entire season taking place in one bar, in one night. Reviews have not been downright terrible, but they have not been all that good either.  The biggest problem with Mixology, besides its concept, is the the timeslot.  When will ABC learn to program the post-Modern Family timeslot?  Mr. Sunshine, Happy Endings, Don’t Trust the B in Apartment 23, How to Live with Your Parents for the Rest of Your Life, and Super Fun Night have all been in the timeslot, and all have struggled. Of all the shows that have aired after Modern Family,  Mixology will do the worst.
Chance of Success: Very poor

Timeslot: Mondays at 8/7c
Lead in: Local programming
Competition: 2 Broke Girls, Almost HumanThe Bachelor, How I Met Your Mother, and The Voice

Analysis: I am going to completely honest, I had no idea Star-Crossed was premiering on February 17th (tomorrow!).  Reviews have been average (53 on Metacritic), with some loving the show (New York Daily News), and others hating it (San Francisco Chronicle).  The show is debuting right in the middle of the Olympics, which will be the biggest disadvantage for Star-Crossed.  After the Olympics, there is no relief in sight.  The Voice returns the following week and CBS begins airing the last few episodes of How I Met Your Mother.  Mondays have been a dead zone for the CW for a few years now, and Star-Crossed will not change anything.
Chance of Success: Very poor

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One thought on “Chances of New Series: February 2014

  1. Pingback: Chances of New Series Results | Tonight on TV

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