Chances of New Midseason Series: Pre-Olympics

There are five new series that will premiere int he weeks leading up to the 2014 Winter Olympics, four of which are in this article (Enlisted was mentioned in the fall article).  The feature will return on a weekly basis after the Olympics finish .

Here is the updated scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):

Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer, renewal inevitable
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer, renewal 50/50
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) – A terrible performer, cancellation inevitable

Timeslot: Mondays at 10/9

Lead in: Mom
Competition: The Blacklist, and Castle
Analysis: CBS hasn’t had much luck with its drama or midseason slate over the past few seasons.  Intelligence will have an uphill battle, but CBS is doing everything in its power to make sure this hits big.  The official premiere is tonight, Tuesday, January 7th, behind mega-hit, NCIS.  With the big lead in, ample promotion, and solid reviews, Intelligence should premiere well.  Whether or not that audience transfers to its original timeslot will be the big question.  I do not believe Intelligence will do as poorly as Hostages, so even a 1.7 would be an improvement.  In addition, I do not see Intelligence setting the ratings world on fire, but it will do well enough to make it to a second season.
Chance of Success: Okay
Timeslot: Tuesdays at 10/9
Lead in: Trophy Wife
Competition: Chicago Fire, and Person of Interest
Analysis: Despite many troubles on the night, ABC is hoping Killer Women can get off to a strong start.   That hope will dwindle quickly when the first ratings come in.  The timeslot alone will be a lot of trouble for the new drama.  ABC hasn’t had much success in the timeslot for as long as I can remember.  With the minuscule lead in from Trophy Wife, Killer Women is going to have to self start.  Nothing in the preview makes me think audiences will go out of their way to watch Killer Women.  As if ABC didn’t have enough troubles on their schedule, Killer Women will only add another problem to the list of problems.
Chance of Success: Very Poor
Chicago_PD_Promotional_Logo-source-wikiTimeslot: Wednesdays at 10/9
Lead in: Law and Order: SVU
Competition: CSI, and Nashville
Analysis: There is no doubt NBC wants to find a new hit in possible-franchise extension, Chicago PD.  Last season, it’s mother series, Chicago Fire, was predicted to be one of the first cancellations of the season, yet here we are a year and a half later.  When NBC first ordered Chicago PD, I thought it would be more accessible than Chicago Fire.  After watching numerous clips and previews, I am beginning to think the exact opposite.  If a viewer has never watched Chicago Fire, the back story for some of the characters on Chicago PD will be unknown.  Law and Order: SVU isn’t the show it used to be, so the lead in is nearly non-existent.  Previous timeslot occupant, Ironside, was canned after a few episodes.  Will Chicago PD bomb out of the gate like Ironside?  No, but anything past a first season seems a bit unlikely to me.
Chance of Success: Poor

Timeslot: Thursdays at 9/8c
Lead in: American Idol
Competition: The Crazy Ones, The Michael J. Fox Show, Reign, Sean Saves the World, The Taste, and Two and a Half Men

Analysis: FOX is launching Rake in the post-American Idol timeslot, the first new drama to get the timeslot since The Finder in 2012.  For the first few weeks of its run, Rake will have it quite easy with its toughest competition coming from long-running Two and a Half Men and freshman The Crazy Ones (which isn’t saying much).  Should it stay in the timeslot long enough, it will eventually have to face Grey’s Anatomy, which I believe will be the hardest for Rake to defeat, since the two seem to be attracting the same audience (females).  It’s lead in, American Idol, is undoubtedly a shell of its former self, with last season sinking to all time lows.  It remains to be seen how the new season will do, and if it has more declines to come.  If those declines continue, Rake will have a tough time getting its own audience.  To me, Rake seems way too quirky for a broadcast network breakout hit.  Reviews have been fairly positive, but critics have been wrong many times before.  Surprisingly, FOX has had a lot of success with its drama slate this season (Sleepy Hollow has already been renewed and Almost Human looks on track for renewal), which bodes well for Rake.  In the end, however, Rake will come up short.
Chances of Success: Poor


One thought on “Chances of New Midseason Series: Pre-Olympics

  1. Pingback: Chances of New Series Results | Tonight on TV

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