Chances of New Fall Dramas: CBS/FOX

There are 12 new dramas premiering this fall, essentially in line with the number of new comedies.  Networks are hoping to find the next hit drama, which they have had trouble with the past few seasons.

Today: Will CBS find success or is the next Golden Boy on the way?  What about FOX, will it find success or Mob Doctor?  We take a look at each new drama and the chances of it becoming a success.
*Since CBS and FOX each have only one new fall drama, the posts have been combined.

Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):

Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) – One of the first cancellations of the season

Timeslot: Mondays at 10/9c
Lead in: Mom
Competition: The Blacklist and Castle

Analysis: Reviews have not been as positive as I thought they would have been at this point.  Those reviews, however, will not deter me from believing Hostages will be a solid option for CBS.  While the lead in is effect is hard to predict here, I can not see the lineup doing much worse than this past year.  The competition is on the lighter side, with a solid, yet declining Castle and other timeslot freshman, The Blacklist.  Given The Blacklist has the lead in of The Voice, one can assume it will be the number one show in the timeslot.  Hostages will remain neck and neck with Castle for most of the fall season, but Hostages could have a couple weeks where it beats Castle by a few tenths.  I expect Hostages to top previous timeslot occupant, Hawaii Five-O, and I would have to believe that is a success by CBS’ standards.
Chance of Success: Okay

Timeslot: Mondays at 9/8c
Lead in: Bones
Competition: 2 Broke Girls, Beauty and the Beast, Dancing with the Stars, Mom, and The Voice

Analysis: Similar to last season, Sleepy Hollow is the only new show on the FOX fall lineup.  Unlike last season, however, FOX has more replacements lined up in case Sleepy Hollow emerges slow out of the gate (The Mob Doctor).  FOX has been giving the show a strong push in the advertising department, but I do not think that is enough to get viewers to watch.  The show is a bit “different” and “different” shows have not worked out all too well for FOX.  Bones is still a strong series, but it did not give The Mob Doctor a boost and if it did not give ‘Doctor‘ a boost, I do not see it happening here.  My guess is Sleepy Hollow is cancelled a few weeks into the season (episode four or five), Bones stays put in its 8 o’clock home, and FOX shifts Almost Human into the 9 o’clock timeslot.
Chance of Success: Very poor

One thought on “Chances of New Fall Dramas: CBS/FOX

  1. Pingback: Chances of New Series Results | Tonight on TV

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