Chances of New Fall Dramas: The CW

There are 12 new dramas premiering this fall, essentially in line with the number of new comedies.  Networks are hoping to find the next hit drama, which they have had trouble with the past few seasons.

Today: Will The CW find success or is the next Cult on the way?  We take a look at each new drama and the chances of it becoming a success.

Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):

Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) – One of the first cancellations of the season

Timeslot: Tuesdays at 8/7c
Lead in: Local programming
Competition: Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D., The Biggest Loser, Brooklyn Nine Nine, Dads, and NCIS

Analysis: A spin-off of the CW’s number one series, The Vampire Diaries, sounds like a sure thing.  The Originals is taking some familiar faces from the original series and planting them in the spinoff.  The competition should not be much of a problem for The Originals, given a lot of it is going to skew male.  The CW is giving the show a sneak-peak behind The Vampire Diaries, giving the premiere a strong start.  Even if the series only brings over half of the audience from The Vampire Diaries, it will likely score the show a renewal.
Chance of Success: Very likely

Reign_logoTimeslot: Thursdays at 9/8c
Lead in: The Vampire Diaries
Competition: The Crazy OnesGlee, Grey’s Anatomy, The Michael J. Fox ShowSean Saves the World, and Two and a Half Men

Analysis: Each season the CW introduces a new series that just does not fit the mold of the network programming goal.  This season, the show to get the title is Reign (Cult would be last seasons).  I personally do not see many people, let alone younger audiences, flocking to a series set way back when.  Younger audience, specifically the adults between 18 and 34, want a series set in the present.  The lead in of The Vampire Diaries sounds great until the data shows not a single post-Diaries series has been a hit for the network.  Of all the shows that have been given the prime timeslot on the network, I would pick Reign to produce the worst overall numbers.
Chance of Success: Poor

Timeslot: Wednesdays at 9/8c
Lead in: Arrow
Competition: Criminal Minds, Law and Order: Special Victims Unit, Modern Family, Super Fun Night, and The X Factor

Analysis: As with Reign, the concept of The Tomorrow People is a bit out there.  Unlike Reign, however, The Tomorrow People will fit like a glove out of its Arrow lead in.  I had originally placed The Tomorrow People in the post-Arrow timeslot in numerous ‘fantasy schedules’, so even though I do not plan on watching either series, I am excited for the placement.  I do not believe The Tomorrow People will out-rate last seasons timeslot occupant, Supernatural, but somewhere between 0.5-0.6 seems acceptable.  An 0.5 or 0.6 would give it retention of around 70%, which has been good enough for shows in the post-Vampire Diaries timeslot.  Consider this a solid renewal for next season.
Chance of Success: Likely

One thought on “Chances of New Fall Dramas: The CW

  1. Pingback: Chances of New Series Results | Tonight on TV

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