Chances of New Fall Dramas: ABC

There are 12 new dramas premiering this fall, essentially in line with the number of new comedies.  Networks are hoping to find the next hit drama, which they have had trouble with the past few seasons.

Today: Will ABC find success or is the next 666 Park Avenue on the way?  We take a look at each new drama and the chances of it becoming a success.

Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):

Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) – One of the first cancellations of the season

Timeslot: Sundays at 10/9c
Lead in: Revenge
Competition: The Mentalist and NBC Sunday Night Football

Analysis: If any new fall drama has been ignored more than any other series, I would say Betrayal is that show.  The show has not been at the center of any media attention and has practically been ignored by the network.  The timeslot is unfavorable, as ABC has not had luck with it since the days of Brothers and Sisters.  If this were last season, I may have given the show a better chance to succeed.  However, Revenge is a shell of its former self, and I do not see it going over a 2.0 A18-49 much this season.  The show will have to face football, but I do not see that playing much of a part in a female-skewing drama.  Either way, I predict Betrayal will be one of the first cancellations of the season.
Chance of Success: Very poor

Timeslot: Tuesdays at 10/9c
Lead in: Trophy Wife
Competition: Chicago Fire and Person of Interest

Analysis: Oh ABC.  When will you learn?  On top of Betrayal possibly earning the first cancellation of the season, there Lucky 7 in the same position.  The networks have tried the lottery-winning series before and they have all been failures after a sole season.  Even if the series does hit, can the concept really last past one season?  Not only is the concept bad, but the timeslot and competition are pretty fierce.  ABC’s all new Tuesday lineup is built upon Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. and if that fails, the entire night will too.  Trophy Wife looks funny, but it will not work well with Lucky 7.  In addition, Chicago Fire, NBC’s only scripted bright spot last season, gains the lead in of The Voice and Person of Interest looks to stop the trouble CBS has had with the timeslot.  I see both shows doing quite well in the hour, leaving little audience for Lucky 7.
Chance of Success: Very poor

Timeslot: Tuesdays at 8/7c
Lead in: Local programming
Competition: The Biggest Loser, Brooklyn Nine Nine, Dads, NCIS, and The Originals

Analysis: Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. is the most buzzed and talked about new series of the fall.  Whether that buzz translates into viewers remains to be seen.  Most years, the “buzzy” show starts strong and then fizzles as the season progresses.  I see the big premiere and big drop off happening for Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. as well.  The Avengers is one of the highest-grossing movies of all time, but I am not buying that they will sit down and watch a series similar to it for 22 weeks.  NCIS is the most-watched show in the timeslot, and ‘Agents‘ may put a dent in the series, but I see NCIS still wining the timeslot.  ‘Agents‘ will most likely be the number one new drama for the network (see their other dramas as to why), however, it will not be the big series some are thinking.
Chance of Success: Okay

Timeslot: Thursdays at 8/7c
Lead in: Local programming
Competition: The Big Bang Theory, Parks and Recreation, The Millers, Welcome to the Family, and The Vampire Diaries

Analysis: ABC’s Thursday 8 o’clock timeslot is a rough one for new dramas: FlashForward, The Deep EndMy Generation, Charlie’s Angels, Missing, Last Resort, and Zero Hour were all cancelled after only one season.  Will ABC finally have luck with Once Upon a Time in Wonderland?  My guess is no.  Once Upon a Time surprised many back in 2011 when it debuted, as it was predicted to be the first cancellation by numerous publications.  The spinoff could have the same luck, but with tougher competition, I will not be holding my breath.  It also does not help that the original series fell hard in the second part of its most recent season, as it suggests viewers may be growing tired of the fantasy drama.  ABC will no doubt air the entire 13 episode season, since it already has a replacement in waiting, the question is what will happen next: a second season, an all new location, or cancellation?  I think cancellation is the most viable option, especially since Once Upon a Time will most likely continue to fall and ABC will want to reduce its reliance on the series.
Chance of Success: Poor

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One thought on “Chances of New Fall Dramas: ABC

  1. Pingback: Chances of New Series Results | Tonight on TV

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