Chances of New Fall Comedies: FOX

There are 14 new comedies premiering this fall, nearly matching the 15 comedies that will return during the entire 2013-2014 television season.  Networks are ordering a number of comedies, hoping to find the next The Big Bang Theory     .

Today: Will FOX find success or is the next Ben and Kate on the way?  We take a look at each new comedy and the chances of it becoming a success.

Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):

Very Likely (100-80) – An outstanding performer
Likely (79-60) – A strong performer
Okay (59-40) – A middle-of-the-road performer
Poor (39-20) – A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) – One of the first cancellations of the season

Timeslot: Tuesdays at 830/730c
Lead in: Dads
Competition: Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.The Biggest LoserNCISThe Originals

Analysis: FOX is putting a lot of their advertising muscle behind Brooklyn Nine-Nine, hoping to find a new hit comedy.  With a terribly-reviewed Dads as a lead in and highly-anticipated Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. as well as NCIS as competition, Brooklyn Nine-Nine is going to face an uphill battle.  For whatever reason, FOX has always had a lot of trouble with their comedy space.  Given their number on comedy, New Girl, is hovering above a 2.0 A18-49, I do not see Brooklyn Nine-Nine going much higher.  In fact, I do not see it going above a 1.4 A18-49 once the premiere audience as settled.  In the end, I believe Brooklyn Nine-Nine will be a one season and done series.
Chance of Success: Poor

dads_fox_adTimeslot: Tuesdays at 8/7c
Lead in: Local programming
Competition: Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.The Biggest LoserNCISThe Originals

Analysis: Along with a number of new comedies this season, Dads has been critically lambasted.  Critics point to the overuse of racist jokes and bland plot as a reason for its terrible pilot.  As we have learned in the past, though, critics simply do not matter when it comes to new series.  The fact this comes from Seth MacFarlane (creator of Family Guy) should bring a built-in audience.  A large part of the regular cast has been a part of the Seth MacFarlane universe before, giving viewers more familiarity.  Not that anyone has really noticed, but Dads uses the same lowercase green font that hit movie Ted used last summer.  Does it really matter?  Probably not, but its something I found fitting to try and tie the two together.  The tough competition is going to hurt the series, but Dads seems more accessible than new comedy partner Brooklyn Nine-Nine.
Chance of Success: Okay

Timeslot: Fridays at 930/830c
Lead in: Raising Hope
Competition: GrimmHawaii Five-0Shark Tank (programming for the CW post-America’s Next Top Model has not officially been announced yet)

Analysis: FOX is debuting Enlisted as a part of its “Late Fall” lineup.  Since its not debuting until nearly two months after the rest of the FOX lineup, it is quite possible the show could air somewhere else to fill in for a cancelled series.  Unfortunately, if any Tuesday night comedy does fail, Raising Hope is more likely to fill in.  With a Friday night timeslot, against the nights number one series, Shark TankEnlisted will face a tough time.  If the series was scheduled to debut earlier in the season, I would pick it as one of the first cancellations.  Still, a cancellation within the first few episodes seems very likely.
Chance of Success: Very poor


One thought on “Chances of New Fall Comedies: FOX

  1. Pingback: Chances of New Series Results | Tonight on TV

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