Who Do You Think You Are: How Will It Do?

Nearly a year after NBC cancelled the series, TLC is debuting an all new season of Who Do You Think You Are?.  Will it come back strong?

The following information regarding Who Do You Think You Are? is for the premiere only.  My prediction for how the series will premiere, among total viewers and in the 18-49 demographic, is after the information presented below.

History: Who Do You Think You Are? premiered on March 5, 2010 to 6.85 million viewers and 1.6 A18-49, which was good enough for second place in its timeslot (one tenth behind Ghost Whisperer).  The show ran for an additional two seasons (all three on Friday nights) and aired its final NBC episode on May 18, 2012.  That episode nabbed 5.54 million viewers and 1.0 A18-49 – a second place finish in its timeslot once again.  NBC officially cancelled Who Do You Think You Are? on May 13, 2012, five days before its final episode aired on the network.  In May 2013, a year after its cancellation, TLC unexpectedly announced it would begin airing an all new season in July 2013.

Timeslot: Tuesdays at 9/8c
New Competition: America’s Got Talent (NBC), Covert Affairs (USA), Dance Moms (Lifetime), Deadliest Catch (Discovery), Extreme Weight Loss (ABC), Perfect Score (CW), Rizzoli & Isles (TNT), So You Think You Can Dance (FOX), Storage Wars: New York (A&E), Twisted (ABC Family)
Analysis: The Tuesday nine o’clock timeslot is a busy one.  Four broadcast networks will air new programming, with the number one summer series (America’s Got Talent) giving Who Do You Think You Are? the most competition.  TNT’s number one drama, Rizzoli & Isles, airs in the timeslot, as does Dance Moms.  Male-skewing Deadliest Catch shouldn’t be too much trouble and neither will low-rated Perfect Score, which debuted last week.

Lead In: Long Island Medium (repeat)
Analysis: Long Island Medium finished its fourth season in late June with 1.99 million viewers and 0.6 A18-49, even with most of its episodes.  The lead in for Who Do You Think You Are? is not new, however, which means its lead in will not be as strong.  I’d say a conservative guess for its lead in numbers would be 800,000 viewers and 0.2-0.3 A18-49, about half of how a new episode performs.

What does all of this mean?
How will Who Do You Think You Are do?
Similar to last weeks Whose Line is it Anyway post, a prediction for Who Do You Think You Are? is not an easy one.  The show has been off the airwaves for a year, and moving to a cable network makes the prediction a bit harder.  The most recent example of a reality series moving networks is America’s Most Wanted.  The series aired its final weekly episode on FOX (Saturday, June 18, 2011) to 3.88 million viewers and 1.1 A18-49.  The premiere on Lifetime (Friday, December 2, 2011) scored 914,000 viewers and 0.3 A18-49 – a loss of 76% of its total viewer audience and 73% of the demographic audience from the final FOX episode, which aired five months prior.  I would say its fair to estimate Who Do You Think You Are? will lose the same amount of its audience in a broadcast to cable move.  With all of the information above, I believe Who Do You Think You Are? will premiere to 1.10 million viewers and 0.3 A18-49.  Those numbers would give the premiere a loss of 80% of its total viewer audience and 70% of the demographic audience from its last episode that aired on NBC a year ago.

How do you think Who Do You Think You Are will premiere? Sound off below!

Next show to be featured: Unforgettable (CBS; first episode during the summer)

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