Camp: How Will It Do?

NBC has yet another summer series premiere (the fourth for the network).  Will Camp finally end NBC’s streak of bad luck during the rough summer season?

The following information regarding Camp is for the premiere only.  My prediction for how the series will premiere, among total viewers and in the 18-49 demographic, is after the information presented below.

Timeslot: Wednesdays at 10/9c
New Competition: Blood and Oil (Discovery), The Bridge (FX), The Challenge: Rivals II (MTV), Couples Therapy (VH1), The Exes (TV Land), Futurama (Comedy Central), Hot in Cleveland (TV Land), I’m Having Their Baby (Oxygen), The Lookout (ABC), Paranormal Witness (Syfy), The Soup (E!), Top Shot All Stars (History)
Analysis: Similar to the analysis for The Bridge (see here) I had no idea the hour was filled with this much competition.  The hour does seem to have more female options and since I think Camp will skew heavily female, it could hurt Camp just a bit.

Lead In: America’s Got Talent
Analysis: Camp will benefit from the lead in of NBC’s number one series.  America’s Got Talent, which aired its new episodes on Tuesdays up until this point, has averaged 10.85 million viewers and 2.8 A18-49 through five episodes this season.  The hit series’ most recent airing (July 2nd) averaged 9.56 million viewers and 2.4 A18-49, its lowest rating of the season.  I would guess the season low is due to the holiday, but I could be wrong on that front.  With the move to Wednesdays, I cannot see America’s Got Talent slipping below the 2.4 A18-49 threshold.  I am going to go with the average 2.8 A18-49 and say that is the number Camp will have as a lead in (especially since America’s Got Talent typically rises throughout the broadcast).

Recent America’s Got Talent Lead Out: Love in the Wild (aired Tuesdays at 10/9c)
Analysis: NBC bumped up America’s Got Talent to the 9-11 timeslot on Tuesdays, thus Wednesdays are now home to the America’s Got Talent lead in.  Anyway, Love in the Wild was the only original series to air behind the hit reality series last season for more than a week.

Season two premiere (June 5, 2012, aired 9-11) – 4.76 million viewers, 1.6 A18-49
Lead in: 12.55 million viewers, 3.5 A18-49 (retention: 38% / 46%)

Season two finale (July 24, 2012) – 4.44 million viewers, 1.2 A18-49
Lead in: 10.43 million viewers, 2.7 A18-49 (retention: 43% / 44%)

Comparable date (July 10, 2012) – 5.03 million viewers, 1.2 A18-49
Lead in: 10.69 million viewers, 2.8 A18-49 (retention: 47% / 43%)

What does all of this mean?
How will Camp do?
NBC seems to be rather excited about Camp or they would not have given it the lead in of America’s Got Talent.  I believe the lead-in alone could help Camp get to a second season, if it can surpass the numbers Love in the Wild put up last season.  The premise is a bit odd, but what better series for the summer season than a show at a summer camp?  I will give NBC credit for tying the two together and not trying to premiere Camp during the regular season (imagine watching this in the summer).  With all of the information provided above, I believe Camp will premiere to 5.25 million viewers and 1.7 A18-49.  Going off the average from America’s Got Talent, it would give Camp retention of 48% (total viewers) and 61% (demo).  I think the series will skew younger than its lead in and do just a smudge better than last years Love in the Wild.  Camp will undoubtedly fall in the coming weeks, but a strong premiere (especially with a strong lead in) is needed.

How do you think Camp will premiere?  Sound off below!

Next show to be featured: Hollywood Game Night (NBC)


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