Get Out Alive w/ Bear Grylls: How Will It Do?

Next up on NBC’s busy summer slate is Get Out Alive w/ Bear Grylls, a reality series pitting teams of two against each other for a chance to win $500,000.

The following information regarding Get Out Alive w/ Bear Grylls is for the premiere only.  My prediction for how the series will premiere, among total viewers and in the 18-49 demographic, is after the information presented below.

Timeslot: Mondays 9/8c
New Competition: The Bachelorette (ABC), Bizarre Foods America (Travel), Cake Boss (TLC), Defiance (Syfy), The Fosters (ABC Family), The Glades (A&E), Hit the Floor (VH1), The Real Housewives of Orange County (Bravo)
Analysis: The 9 o’clock hour is full of competition, but I don’t think it’ll harm Get Out Alive too much.  Most of the series in the hour (five of the above) have a large amount of female viewers, especially the highest rated show Get Out Alive will face, The Bachelorette.  With so many female-skewing series options in the hour, I think NBC’s placement of Get Out Alive, which I believe will have a closer gender audience profile, is smart counter-programming.

Lead In: American Ninja Warrior
Analysis: Similar to Siberia last week, NBC is giving Get Out Alive a chance with their number two summer series, American Ninja Warrior.  Unlike last week, Get Out Alive is losing the higher-rated 9 o’clock portion of American Ninja Warrior and is getting the much lower-rated portion as a lead in.  Courtesy of TV Media Insights and SonoftheBronx, the 8 o’clock portion averaged a 1.3 A18-49 at 8 and 1.6 at 830 vs. a 1.8 at 9 and 2.0 at 930.  Take the 8 o’clock hour and the show averaged a 1.45 for the hour, essentially giving us that number for Get Out Alive’s lead in.  Not great, but its better than having encores as a lead in.

Most Recent Lead Out: Siberia
Analysis: Last week Siberia premiered to 3.07 million viewers and a 1.1 A18-49.  As stated above, it did have a better lead in (2.0 at 930) and shed 40% of the demographic audience of American Ninja Warrior from 930 to 10.

What does all of this mean?
How will Get Out Alive do?
Bear Grylls is a well-known adventurer who has had previous television series on cable.  Whether or not that successes translates to broadcast is to be seen.  However, the competition is fairly light given the female-skewing competition, the lead in is solid, and although I didn’t write an entire section about it, the promotion has been more noticeable than last weeks Siberia.  Using the exact numbers the 8 o’clock portion of American Ninja Warrior achieved last week for this week, and with the other various factors, I believe Get Out Alive will premiere to 3.25 million viewers and 1.3 A18-49.  In general, I think the concept is more open to everyone than Siberia and it will fit out of American Ninja Warrior better.  The numbers could have been a few ticks higher had NBC given Get Out Alive a higher rated 9 o’clock portion of American Ninja Warrior.

How do you think Get Out Alive will premiere?  Sound off below!

Next shows to be featured: The Bridge (FX) and Camp (NBC) – both posts coming Monday!

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