Siberia: How Will It Do?

NBC is debuting Siberia, a new horror series that takes place during a reality series and is filmed in the way of a reality series.  Understand?  How will this somewhat unique series premiere?
The following information regarding Siberia is for the premiere only.  My prediction for how the series will premiere, among total viewers and in the 18-49 demographic, is after the information presented below.

Timeslot: Mondays 10/9c
New Competition: King and Maxwell (TNT), Mistresses (ABC), Teen Wolf (MTV), Under the Dome (CBS), Warehouse 13 (SyFy)
Analysis: 10 o’clock is one of the easier hours in the summer, since people typically head indoors once the sun has set.  This time around, however, Siberia is going to have to face new summer hit, Under the Dome, which could take down Siberia all on its own.  The cable competition, in addition to Mistresses, are not all too difficult; in fact, they are all terribly low.

Lead In: American Ninja Warrior (season five premiere)
Analysis: NBC isn’t giving Siberia the lead in of their number one summer series, America’s Got Talent, but American Ninja Warrior is still a solid option.  The season four premiere, its first on NBC, posted 6.08 million viewers and a 2.4 A18-49 (airing from 9 to 11).  The show did benefit from its lead in of America’s Got Talent, yet when it lost the lead in by the time the finale rolled around, ratings were still very good for the summer season.  The two hour finale, which aired in July, finished with 4.87 million viewers and a 2.0 A18-49, growing significantly from its Fear Factor repeat lead in.  It’ll no longer air from 9 to 11 (instead it will air from 8 to 10), but if it can put up at least a 2.0 A18-49, Siberia should benefit.

Promotion: 3 (10 = High, 1 = Low)
Analysis: I haven’t watched much NBC lately, but off the network, promotion has been pretty much non-existent.  Magazines have lacked stories about the show, it has generated no news on the entertainment television shows, and buzz online is near zero.  If you go to NBC.com, there is nothing about the premiere of Siberia until the bottom of their home page.  You’d think a series premiering a few days from now would have front page news.  To me, it spells trouble.  The only push the series has seen from the network is that they released the pilot episode online.

What does all of this mean?
How will Siberia do?
Siberia will benefit from its lead in and that is about the only positive item I see working for the show.  Combining the reality aspect into a drama is interesting, but how many people are asking to watch something with both of those combined?  To me, the show seems a bit out there for normal audiences.  Besides Under the Dome, nothing else has hit it big this summer, and I do not see Siberia breaking the mold.  With all of the information presented above, I believe Siberia will premiere to 3.75 million viewers and 1.1 A18-49 demo.  The numbers will certainly be better than NBC’s most recent attempt at a new summer drama (Crossing Lines) but not much better.  In the end, it’ll most likely be one and out for Siberia.

How do you think Siberia will premiere?  Sound off below and vote in the poll.

Next show to be posted on 7/5/13: Get Out Alive with Bear Grylis (NBC), premieres Monday, July 8th.

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