Under the Dome: How Will It Do?

If any show is going to gain traction on the broadcast networks this summer, it would have to be Under the Dome.  How will the premiere of the much-anticipated series perform?

The following information regarding Under the Dome is for the premiere only.  My prediction for how the series will premiere, among total viewers and the 18-49 demographic is after the information presented below.

Timeslot: Monday at 10/9c
Competition: Mistresses (ABC), The Winner Is (Repeat; NBC), Longmire (A&E), Teen Wolf (MTV)
Under the Dome will face little to no competition for its premiere.  Mistresses has been in the low 1’s, The Winner Is will be a repeat, Longmire and Teen Wolf both recorded 0.7’s for their most recent episode, the highest rated cable competition in the hour.  It’ll be a real shocker if Under the Dome cannot go over a 1.2 and win the hour on all of television.  In the coming weeks, the timeslot will get a bit rougher with he lack of lead in, but more on that below.

Lead In: The Big Bang Theory (repeat)
If anything can really give the show a boost, it will be CBS’ number one series: The Big Bang Theory.  CBS will be airing two repeat episodes in the 9 o’clock hour.  In its most recent repeat airing on Monday nights (Monday, May 20th), the show put up 7.46 million viewers and 2.1 demo.  For a repeat, that is certainly not bad at all and should give Under the Dome a big lift.  The only other lead in that could have made sense would have been Big Brother, but I like this pairing better.  At worst, The Big Bang Theory will do a 1.5 demo average in the hour.

Promotion: 10 (10 = High, 1 = Low)
Anyone remember the promotion during the Super Bowl back in February?  Yes, nearly five months ago CBS began promotions for a series that hadn’t even begun filming a single scene yet.  A five month promotional campaign for a summer series is almost unheard of these days.  I cannot remember a series that had a bigger promotional push as a summer series than Under the Dome.  If the show fails, you cannot say it was because of the lack of promotion.

What does all of this mean?
How will Under the Dome do?
Stephen King is a big name and he has many devoted readers.  His novels have been turned into numerous made-for-television movies, mini-series, and television series (for a full list, go here).  His concepts do target limited audiences, but that has not stopped people from tuning into his material before.  While not a huge star, I think Dean Norris (Breaking Bad) will bring a few extra viewers to the series.  With these people involved, plus the information I posted above, I think Under the Dome will premiere to 9.00 million viewers and 2.3 demo.  Is that a big high?  Perhaps.  I’d consider anything below a 2.0 a disappointment, and anything below a 1.5 a huge disappointment.  Under the Dome will surely fall in the weeks after the premiere,  as most shows do, but I’m predicting a big (for summer) start.

Up next week: Ray Donovan (Showtime)

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